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Typhoon Tip

Oct 29-30 snow threat

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not to detract from this snow threat but that’s basically 10/11 but 1-2months earlier...so come mid/late Dec it vanishes. 

Prolific Dec snows and then we shut off?

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to parrot you're input here but just to add - sometimes we see this in the guidance, a tendency to 'over-correct' during the middling temporal leads.  I mean we all know this.. 

But it is not a fixed timing, either. If a siggy system that verified, originally emerged in guidance on say .. D 10, invariably it probably spent some time if not a single cycle, aborted from said guidance .. usually midway en route, D 5 or 6 out from cyclone birth.  I almost wonder if we went back and scoped out some 'positive busts' that were particularly noteworthy, if somewhere out among the din of ensemble members .. there might have been a version and cycle that did see it - but lost it. Perhaps it was merely too obscured by the mean and/or on-going op. versions stealing away deterministic attention ... 

It seems to be relative to the pattern in play, too.  Like, if some huge ginormous SD event requiring a lot of massive multi-faceted, hemispheric teleconnector domain spaces be involved in it's integrated emergence ..the 'opp correction' interval may be further out in time.  That may be 'geo-physical' in nature tho .. having that many moving parts in sync means there is a 'loud' signal, such that by virtue of that alone the modeling uncertainty as it relates to permutation and time constraining ... it would intuitively push all that farther out -

But this is a middling cyclone at best - tho... some solutions 3 days ago we might have had 980 mb -ranged, plumbing in the NAM at near bombogen thresholds passing ESE of ISP ..notwithstanding. It is possible that we bring it back - even partial is a conceptual win for this present line of thinking...

As an aside, reiterating: it seems we are tending to disrupt cyclones in this sort of 'mid-grade' construction/Norwegian Model, in recent behavior modes.  It may be subtle ..and is not true absolutely, but it seems there are more multi-nodal 'pearling' of low along baroclinic axis with isentropic lift flopping over on the polarward side as events. When/if S/W jet mechanics can overcome the fast absorbing factorization of the flow ... they are by virtue so powerful enough that the low they develop is Halifaxian 2019 crazies -

Yeah this one was always a bit precarious with the potential to get shredded. I had replied to Ray two days ago that I was more concerned with that than a zonked system trying to run into the Hudson Valley.

That said, this could easily come back enough to produce some significant winter sensible wx conditions. We'll just have to see if the ULL can gain some latitude without getting shredded too quickly. Obviously yesterday's guidance was allowing this more than overnight.

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34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not to detract from this snow threat but that’s basically 10/11 but 1-2months earlier...so come mid/late Dec it vanishes. 

Nah..lag time Luke, nothing hits and vanishes in an instant.  Isn’t it when these indices are transitioning is when we usually(not always obviously) more or less  get our winter events.? 

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Regardless of what happens with snow this is going to be an incredible storm to watch unfold. This could still be quite significant in areas like the Berks...maybe NW CT? I would think though we're going to see some impressive dynamic cooling. Dual pol will be fun to watch with the melting layer crashing. The dynamics with this are through the roof. Also have to think there could be a flood threat (maybe coastal too...have to look at tides).

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You get a 100+ 500mb jet streak rounding the base of the trough as it moves through the OV...couldn't ask for anything better in that regard. 

image.png.ecefccdabbb08238d50ab6a69f42557c.png

 

And we should continue to generate precip on the backside given this look

image.png.71aff45312f69e5e734cbfe142fa6fe3.png

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Decent change on 12z NAM. It didn't sink further south at least.

You get a couple inches or so that run.

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Hmm.. may be some 'sour grapes' mentality affecting/effecting people's judgments and posted statements ... which is understandable - we're only human.

But,  .. this group of returning motley social media heads is biased, though we play games and 'act' unbiased much of the time hahaha

I agree - in principle - regarding the thread titling. Having said that, I think there needs to be more responsibility at the individual level, to be objective on their own, and not be guided by 'headlines'   So it goes both ways..

Buuut...being sensitive and realistic to the obvious, diplomacy in the word "threat" in the title ... probably wasn't so good.  heh... Maybe that would have been better if it read, "potential" - leave it at that.   

Or maybe adding a qualifier like, '.. another October cold anomaly added to the growing number of them since 2000' - that would have conceptually prepped folks to engage in that conversation - rather than leaping past the reflective, thoughtfully engaging audience phase ... right into a mentality of frantic mouse-clicking, red-eyed dysfunctional obsession/storm fulfillment, don't past go, go directly to jail-cell of expectation one cannot be extracted or rescued from ... Lol 

I see this all the time... Once those cats get out of the bag, you can't herd them back in - people won't return to a objectivity. It's like there's a triggering mentality that is akin to trying to stop the bomb explosion after its detonation.  

 

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The southern bowling ball was not as shredded this run as it gained latitude....so definitely an improvement, even if the overall result is still meh. Looks like an inch or two for many though over the interior.

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I think if 925 and 850 can close off a bit farther west that might help draw in colder air in the llvls much faster and as long as the track stays par we would be able to lock it in. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Regardless of what happens with snow this is going to be an incredible storm to watch unfold. This could still be quite significant in areas like the Berks...maybe NW CT? I would think though we're going to see some impressive dynamic cooling. Dual pol will be fun to watch with the melting layer crashing. The dynamics with this are through the roof. Also have to think there could be a flood threat (maybe coastal too...have to look at tides).

Yeah... agreed.

It's already substantiated the noteworthiness of the era/ hitherto conceptual layouts - but folks are a bit too addled by recent disenchanting model runs/ having to face the music and admit their expectations surged too far into a glops falling from tree limbs power outages vision of sugar-plumb winter fairies...    lol

Give it three weeks to marinade and folks'll be like ... oh, okay...it was proof of this tending to happen more in Octobers - sure. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam tried to wrap up the second wave just a bit more. Verbatim even brings some snow here, locally.

Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... agreed.

It's already substantiated the noteworthiness of the era/ hitherto conceptual layouts - but folks are a bit too addled by disenchantment for having to admit their expectations surged into a glops falling from tree limbs in power outages visions of suger-plumb winter fairies...    lol

Yeah I hope the "disappointment" of not getting damage doesn't overshadow the impressiveness of this system. This system is the legit definition of meteorology. So many processes at play and interactions. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.

Any flash freeze potential?

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You know ...I am not sure if this matters but it seems like it should.

This Zeta may even be a Cat 3 by landfall.  Even if not... it may be through the upper end of Cat 2 and be quite the potent physical add-in to the music of the chorus here - 

I'm not sure if the models are handling that right.  

The GGEM ... for example, smears out a strong tropical storm looking feature ...and it's pressure depth is way shallow compared to what we already have, and this thing has stilll some development potential while already being stronger...  It synoptic evolution in that smearing is to just sort of lose it along a warm frontal wave S of LI but ...what if this thing has to be integrating more physical exertion in reality - how does that change that... 

I see this kind uncertainty across the guidance bevy frankly - interesting... 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.

30 in BOS verbatim...lol. Not sure about that unless it's going pretty good.

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yeah...the more I look at this... I think the models - all of them.. have introduced a conflict in the handling between Zeta and the synoptic mechanics approaching in the fast flow. 

They are conserving Zeta more so cohesively separate and squirting it out ... 

It may be contrasting to intuition but .. I almost wonder if Zeta got absorbed it's diabatic influx might exotically deepen this thing, and that would cause height falls -->  favors shorter duration phase proficiency in the steam interaction "machinery"  

With Zeta being less integrated ... it's sort of stealing the latent heat injection into a system that is flat and needs to have its inflow jets to get that height fall/feed-back process going in time. Zeta may be robbing some of that - .almost akin to an MCS rolling underneath and robbing a region from tornadoes as a weak metaphor -

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You can see the difference at hr 45 on the 12z vs hr 51 on the 6z at 500mb. Look at how the 12z run is almost more of a neutral tilt. The 6z run was more linear aligned from SW-NE. the 12z run has it aligned more N-S which allows the dynamics to spread the precip north and help curl it back.

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any flash freeze potential?

Yeah there might be, esp in higher terrain. I could see ORH county having some flash freeze issues if we have steady snow and 28-30F.

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.

I was hoping the 2-4” here would be wet paste, but looks like it’s going to our usual 27-28 powder 

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