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Windspeed

Hurricane Zeta

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This looks similar in intensity the last 3 Hurricanes to hit SE LA.

Gustav, Isaac and Nate.

 

It was a raw  T 7.4 at one point last night.   

I think the window to deepen has just about ended.  It will probably hold this intensity +-5mb up to landfall.

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Multiple CBs rotating around the eyeband with three distinct hot towers. Zeta appears to be intensifying. Amazing what even 26°C SSTs can fuel within a very dynamic upper atmospheric environment.

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7 minutes ago, Amped said:

This looks similar in intensity the last 3 Hurricanes to hit SE LA.

Gustav, Isaac and Nate.

 

It was a raw  T 7.4 at one point last night.   

I think the window to deepen has just about ended.  It will probably hold this intensity +-5mb up to landfall.

Reasoning?
 

Every pc of guidance I have seen shows zeta intensifying—albeit slowly—right up until landfall.

Current trends also show this is the case. 

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This is not the same look delta had coming in. This is a well formed strengthening storm. Conditions won’t permit it to go crazy but this is still strengthening and has just about run out of time for any weakening to take place 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Reasoning?
 

Every pc of guidance I have seen shows zeta intensifying—albeit slowly—right up until landfall.

Current trends also show this is the case. 

3cgPUR1.png

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Very nice IR and satellite appearance. Not a lot of time left but Zeta is trying to hold open the window to intensify. Would continue the trend from the season. 

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Have a friend in Metairie, LA (who is currently recovering from covid :fever:) who has lived there for about 5 years.  If my memory is right, this may be the most significant storm to hit there in that timeframe... basically a direct hit.

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The problem with this graphic is that the first forecast point, 12 hours, the storm is already inland 

Maybe it strengthens a little.    If the pressure only fell 12mb in the last 12 hrs,,  it's not going to make CAT3 extrapolating that rate over the next 6 hrs.

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A plane should be in the storm in about an hour.

Any idea why they aren't running nearly as many missions as some other hurricanes this year? Budget running low?

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Zeta has improved once again on satellite. Nice CDO with more symmetrical cold cloud tops surrounding core. Eye is trying to pop again on visible. I'm thinking this will landfall at 90mph or possibly a bit stronger based on how it's looking

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I am seeing an oil rig reporting 45mph gusting to 87mph near or in the eyewall. (kind of the edge of the KLIX radar range.)

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26 minutes ago, Amped said:

Maybe it strengthens a little.    If the pressure only fell 12mb in the last 12 hrs,,  it's not going to make CAT3 extrapolating that rate over the next 6 hrs.

No chance at cat 3. I’m only saying I do not think this is going to weaken. It’s still (slowly) deepening and sat presentation has improved since this morning. It only has maybe 6 hours until the eyewall is onshore 

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55 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A plane should be in the storm in about an hour.

Any idea why they aren't running nearly as many missions as some other hurricanes this year? Budget running low?

I mean, it's relative. The purpose of the flights is to provide data to the nhc and for forecast models to improve predictions. Hurricane forecasting is a national security issue. Hurricanes cause potentially billions in damages, and can kill a lot of people if the wrong forecast is given and people aren't prepared. Aircraft are useful when storms are changing intensity, speed, direction, and when the track is uncertain. Zeta is not really in those categories. Because of Zeta's speed, the models are in very good agreement on the track. We know 95% CI where this is going to go. Separately, whether this is a 90mph Cat 1, a 100 mph Cat 2, or an 85 mph Cat 1 at landfall...the impacts to New Orleans will be the same. Finally, they *are* flying enough missions such that there is basically an updated in situ measurement for every 3 hour forecast update. They don't have a plane in every moment because it isn't needed. It won't affect the forecast that's being issued. As the storm closes in on the coast, buoys and land based radar also helps provide more data. There is no budget cap for hurricane hunter missions. They just fly what they need to fly based on what nhc asks for. They'll have an updated in situ measurement before 2pm and that's really what's important at this point. 

 

MU

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according to the tropical expert on the weather channel  greg postel he said a hour ago the said the storm maxed out already and on satellite looks like it may be weakening  shear dry air. etc etc..

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

according to the tropical expert on the weather channel  greg postel he said a hour ago the said the storm maxed out already and on satellite looks like it may be weakening  shear dry air. etc etc..

Recon will be enlightening, sure looks like Zeta is still strengthening 

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Almost certainly not weakening atm with that presentation on IR. Can see south side of eye on radar also, so its not the "half-a-cane" look that you had with Delta on approach, at least right now. At least with the fast movement duration of winds will be short. Bit unfortunate for New Orleans that it looks to go right over them. 

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23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

according to the tropical expert on the weather channel  greg postel he said a hour ago the said the storm maxed out already and on satellite looks like it may be weakening  shear dry air. etc etc..

I try not to focus on minute-by-minute forecast changes based on how the storm looks at any given moment. I said this yesterday when I said I thought this would become a cat 2, and I'll say it now: I do not see dry air entrainment. The radar from klix shows a well organized system with several well formed curved bands. Better organized than some stronger wind-speed storms earlier in the season. Right now the eye is starting to show again. A hurricane is a well organized collection of thunderstorms. They pulse. Look at trends over the course of a few hours and don't get too bogged down by looking one way now another way now. 

Landfall intensity I think will be a function of shear. So far, shear has stayed low. 81-84 in this environment for water temps is fine for maintenance with low shear. Right now the storm is still over slightly warmer waters. I am guessing that that is what the 06z dynamical models picked up on because the structure of the system in said models depicted a relatively symmetrical storm, which implies low shear, and we do still see that now. The thing isn't on land yet and it will inevitably look different in 2 hours than it does now. For that reason, don't count the storm out without a clear eye, and don't assume if an eye clears now that it means RI. It's still strengthening right now, it will level out at some point close to landfall. I still say Cat 2 is likely as a peak intensity--low end Cat 2. Good upper divergence, low shear, not doom level water temps. Marginal 100mph storm. This is a good example of the difference between fast uniform flow and strong shear. 

 

Overall the storm is very short on time to change much. It isn't going to become a cat 3 and it isn't going to collapse into a tropical storm. What IS important to note is that a strengthening or steady state tropical system does mix down winds easier. So there's a difference between a weakening 100mph storm and a strengthening 90mph storm. The strengthening 90mph does more overall damage (potentially, I'm postulating here so if anyone thinks that's incorrect please let me know)...my logic is: you have the back side to contend with too and it takes longer to swing the pendulum the other way. 

 

We should be able to see the eyewall circulation on radar in an hour or two. 

 

MU

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For a Category 2 hurricane, which is what I expect recon to find, this is about as gorgeous a satellite presentation as your ever going to see. If that eye continues warming, this might make run at Cat 3. I don't think it will make it before landfall, but 6 hrs is plenty of timing during rapid deepening. Zeta is going to be a bad landfall if it continues strengthening all the way onto shore. No hurricane is the same, but an intensifying Cat 2 is worse than a weakening one. Winds will mix down more efficiently. I cannot get over this satellite presentation considering the SSTs. Was totally not expecting this regardless of the HWRF's hints.21f10fe5604a39b87fba6ba052b92eae.gif&key=00c783c43293da96ed05ffb65aa252979efba3ccf1662d02105e29d5bd90a878

 

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Man it's going to really be something if this reaches Cat 3 this afternoon. Nobody saw this coming.

Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west.

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Just now, Windspeed said:

Man it's going to really be something if this reaches Cat 3 this afternoon. Nobody saw this coming.

Would be the shortest thread of a major US landfall in AmericanWx.com history 

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Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west.
Fortunately it will be hauling ass so hopefully that will mitigate surge. Yes, there still will be surge, but again, forward motion is so fast it may not have enough time to build surge inland too far or compromise levees. This looks like it will be a bad wind event however as time is going to run out before it can weaken from maximum intensity...

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west.

Nowhere near the same. This is an average sized storm booking it with winds picking up at very end. Katrina was a mid gulf monster and had days to buildup that massive surge. Not fair to even include this in the discussion with the K word down there 

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