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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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46 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

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Wow. More hits into PA but still a bit east again from the EPS.

 

 

This is the numbers part of the forecast where I find 1 member out of 50 that gives me 2 feet of snow and then lock myself in my room for 3 days when it doesn’t pan out. 

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43 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What's it like to be a TV met there?

They do their best and then hide. R.I.P Chris Bradley.

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33 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Now we got the PNA ridge in 2020. 

That  really isn't that relevant if the energy downstream doesn't phase. This kind of thread the needle event needs a full blown phase to be a big snow event. Partial GFS style phases won't cut it.

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When I saw the GFS starting to get into the timeframe, I thought there was no way it was going to throw snow back this far west.  Typically that's a pretty bad surface low track, but system evolves in a way to produce a snow band pretty far west.

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GEFS say you can toss the op GFS 18z run, almost all of them have a significant snowstorm in the lakes most of which are in the eastern half of the lakes.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone up for some 00z NAM tea leaf reading?

Looks pretty similar to the Euro, that is about it.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone up for some 00z NAM tea leaf reading?

Howdy. The NAM definitely seems to be following the trend of there being a strong system. It's definitely not too far east, as far as I can tell, but I wouldn't call it a great look for you or especially I necessarily. 

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Anyone up for some 00z NAM tea leaf reading?

Would not be good.

Much faster with southern stream than Euro and even the GFS.


.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Would not be good.

Much faster with southern stream than Euro and even the GFS.


.

Well at least someone knows what they're talking about

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Would not be good.

Much faster with southern stream than Euro and even the GFS.


.

Will be interesting to see if anything substantial evolves from this for Indiana and points east. Definitely cuts against snow climo where places like Madison usually start to get hit now. Maybe some mood flakes or LES for our area.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

GFS is back on board the biggie... Indiana gets crushed.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

That surface low REALLY gets yanked back due to the ULL influence.  It's basically an App runner at first.

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