Tropical Storm Beta

[Amped]

18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For globals lolz, the GFS has 3 TC in the Gulf/Bay of Campeche between now and mid next week.


.

CMC shows even more of a 2020 solution.  Stalls 20 Miles off the TX coast for 3 days, then hits Florida.

[the ghost of leroy]

Can we just get a system that moves in a straight line at a climatologically average pace? Thanks. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Can we just get a system that moves in a straight line at a climatologically average pace? Thanks. 

Not this year, lol

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC would make every surfer on the gulf coast happy.

[Windspeed]

lol that CMC/GEM op run was also an SST killer for the remainder of the season in the GOM. That would shut it down.

[Wild Weather Monger]

Sure looks an awful lot like we have a tropical storm near 22.3n 99.5w on satellite to me. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The general theme from the models is a lift north for a couple days, followed by a turn to the west and track to near the Texas coast, followed by a stall and turn back east.

[Derecho!]

Ends up barely not coming ashore in S TX and then heads NE to hit Louisiana on the ECMWF.

[cheese007]

I don't trust these gulf systems one bit

[Cheeznado]

New Euro stalls it on the lower TX coast,  then moves it NE to the LA coast. This is similar to what the GEFS is hinting at. That would be a trip...

[Will - Rutgers]

i am rooting for you Wilfred Jr.

you big sloppy idiot

get your shit together, get your GED, go flood a basement in Thibodaux, Louisiana.  boost some property values.  addition by subtraction.

[hawkeye_wx]

The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak.  The euro has a more solid system.

[wxmx]

20 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Sure looks an awful lot like we have a tropical storm near 22.3n 99.5w on satellite to me. 

Would be quite a feat, being inland  ... but yeah, it looks like a bona fide TC around 22.2N

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak.  The euro has a more solid system.

Generally it seems this will stay weak, Biggest concern would be stalling near a populated area on the TX coast.

[Wild Weather Monger]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

Would be quite a feat, being inland  ... but yeah, it looks like a bona fide TC around 22.2N

LOL.  I always thought mountains were the place to be.  95.5w 

[wxeyeNH]

I'm wondering how fast the Gulf surface waters warm back up after the passage of  tropical cyclone like Sally.  Does a couple of days of bright sun do much in September?   Gulf waters must be pretty well turned up.  Anyone knowledgeable in this area?

[SnowLover22]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm wondering how fast the Gulf surface waters warm back up after the passage of  tropical cyclone like Sally.  Does a couple of days of bright sun do much in September?   Gulf waters must be pretty well turned up.  Anyone knowledgeable in this area?

Wouldn't it take a while. The heat capacity of water is high so just "a couple of days in the sun"I feel like would not really warm up the waters that much. 

[JakkelWx]

There seems to be some uncertainty with 90L.

[Justicebork]

Do not use this map to make decisions.  Seek official info.

[wxmx]

19 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Wouldn't it take a while. The heat capacity of water is high so just "a couple of days in the sun"I feel like would not really warm up the waters that much. 

Warming up sea surface wouldn't take much time, and usually, more important than sun light is wind. Calm seas, with little churning can sensibly warm sea surface...and low clouds at night to trap some of the low level atmospheric heat would also help. But that would be at depths of no more than a few meters. The heat capacity of the area south of LA is pretty low right now, so I don't think it would recover much in that aspect. A smaller, faster moving system would resent this heat content loss less than a bigger, slower moving one.

[wxmx]

[the ghost of leroy]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

Jorge. What’s up man? Hope all is well. I knew 90L would bring you back to us. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon showing a broad circulation but it does have west wind. SFMR 30-35 kts. FL winds slightly lower. Probably enough to classify as a depression 

[WxWatcher007]

We have Tropical Depression Twenty Two. Advisory at 7pm EST. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We have Tropical Depression Twenty Two. Advisory at 7pm EST. 

On cue 

[HKY_WX]

48 minutes ago, wxmx said:

TCHP in the Caribbean is off the charts.

[wxmx]

56 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Jorge. What’s up man? Hope all is well. I knew 90L would bring you back to us. 

Doing ok...yeah, I have little time nowadays, but Hannah, and now TD22 (and the likes) will always pull the weather weenie out of me

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

TCHP in the Caribbean is off the charts.

Given the right conditions you could easily see a Patricia type storm there. I wonder what the upper bounds are for intensity and pressure, sub 850 220mph?

[SnowLover22]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Given the right conditions you could easily see a Patricia type storm there. I wonder what the upper bounds are for intensity and pressure, sub 850 220mph?

Definitely but would most likely have to be a pinhole eye. A system with a larger eye would be harder pressed to find the high wind speeds that Patricia produced. 

[SnowLover22]

2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Did you learn that in met school?

If you actually care, here is a peer-reviewed journal article backing up my claim

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027313