the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Can we just get a system that moves in a straight line at a climatologically average pace? Thanks. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: Can we just get a system that moves in a straight line at a climatologically average pace? Thanks. Not this year, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 CMC would make every surfer on the gulf coast happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 lol that CMC/GEM op run was also an SST killer for the remainder of the season in the GOM. That would shut it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Sure looks an awful lot like we have a tropical storm near 22.3n 99.5w on satellite to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The general theme from the models is a lift north for a couple days, followed by a turn to the west and track to near the Texas coast, followed by a stall and turn back east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Ends up barely not coming ashore in S TX and then heads NE to hit Louisiana on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I don't trust these gulf systems one bit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 New Euro stalls it on the lower TX coast, then moves it NE to the LA coast. This is similar to what the GEFS is hinting at. That would be a trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 i am rooting for you Wilfred Jr. you big sloppy idiot get your shit together, get your GED, go flood a basement in Thibodaux, Louisiana. boost some property values. addition by subtraction. 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak. The euro has a more solid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Sure looks an awful lot like we have a tropical storm near 22.3n 99.5w on satellite to me. Would be quite a feat, being inland ... but yeah, it looks like a bona fide TC around 22.2N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak. The euro has a more solid system. Generally it seems this will stay weak, Biggest concern would be stalling near a populated area on the TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Would be quite a feat, being inland ... but yeah, it looks like a bona fide TC around 22.2N LOL. I always thought mountains were the place to be. 95.5w 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I'm wondering how fast the Gulf surface waters warm back up after the passage of tropical cyclone like Sally. Does a couple of days of bright sun do much in September? Gulf waters must be pretty well turned up. Anyone knowledgeable in this area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm wondering how fast the Gulf surface waters warm back up after the passage of tropical cyclone like Sally. Does a couple of days of bright sun do much in September? Gulf waters must be pretty well turned up. Anyone knowledgeable in this area? Wouldn't it take a while. The heat capacity of water is high so just "a couple of days in the sun"I feel like would not really warm up the waters that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 There seems to be some uncertainty with 90L. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Do not use this map to make decisions. Seek official info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Wouldn't it take a while. The heat capacity of water is high so just "a couple of days in the sun"I feel like would not really warm up the waters that much. Warming up sea surface wouldn't take much time, and usually, more important than sun light is wind. Calm seas, with little churning can sensibly warm sea surface...and low clouds at night to trap some of the low level atmospheric heat would also help. But that would be at depths of no more than a few meters. The heat capacity of the area south of LA is pretty low right now, so I don't think it would recover much in that aspect. A smaller, faster moving system would resent this heat content loss less than a bigger, slower moving one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Jorge. What’s up man? Hope all is well. I knew 90L would bring you back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Recon showing a broad circulation but it does have west wind. SFMR 30-35 kts. FL winds slightly lower. Probably enough to classify as a depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: We have Tropical Depression Twenty Two. Advisory at 7pm EST. On cue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 48 minutes ago, wxmx said: TCHP in the Caribbean is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 56 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Jorge. What’s up man? Hope all is well. I knew 90L would bring you back to us. Doing ok...yeah, I have little time nowadays, but Hannah, and now TD22 (and the likes) will always pull the weather weenie out of me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: TCHP in the Caribbean is off the charts. Given the right conditions you could easily see a Patricia type storm there. I wonder what the upper bounds are for intensity and pressure, sub 850 220mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Given the right conditions you could easily see a Patricia type storm there. I wonder what the upper bounds are for intensity and pressure, sub 850 220mph? Definitely but would most likely have to be a pinhole eye. A system with a larger eye would be harder pressed to find the high wind speeds that Patricia produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Did you learn that in met school? If you actually care, here is a peer-reviewed journal article backing up my claim https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Y'all want to both knock it the hell off? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 GFS now takes a hurricane into Texas. Much quicker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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