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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I honestly can't believe GYX doesn't have even an Advisory out for Coos County, population or not.  Feels like the bust potential is there for like a heavy cake tonight.  

Latest from GYX:

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches expected above 1000 feet with up to 12 inches possible
  above 2000 feet. 1 to 3 inches expected on the valley floors.

* WHERE...Northern Coos and Southern Coos Counties.

South of there is similar except only 8" above 2k.

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1 hour ago, Angus said:

thoughts on Wildcat tomorrow. the nephew is itching to go. things look good but i'm a bit nervous of a heavy rain...thoughts?

Wildcat has a very high elevation base area; my thinking is that they will do well with the storm and not as well with the upslope - so if the goal is to go out tomorrow, it’s probably a good choice!

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35 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Latest from GYX:

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches expected above 1000 feet with up to 12 inches possible
  above 2000 feet. 1 to 3 inches expected on the valley floors.

* WHERE...Northern Coos and Southern Coos Counties.

South of there is similar except only 8" above 2k.

I will go with 6-8 for my spot at 1550'.

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I will go with 6-8 for my spot at 1550'.

I like that.  Fair guess.  Could go higher if it’s a full blue bomb, could also go 4-6” if it’s too wet and sloppy.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I love the daily J.Spin-isms, getting Phin into the North Country mindset.  In a year his name will change from Phin to Phish.

Phin heading north to visit pf, jspin and I after this season.

3A38E2AD-CCC7-44C5-BF27-3835D15D42BD.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Phin heading north to visit pf, jspin and I after this season.

3A38E2AD-CCC7-44C5-BF27-3835D15D42BD.jpeg

 

He'll soon be jamming the hell out of the air guitar to this while being doused in upslope

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4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

LOL I was gonna say, my car gets so filthy after one trip up Randolph Hill road and down my road even washing it seems pointless, much less waxing!

SnowLife.jpg

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The BTV NWS map updates for the afternoon are in, and I’ve added them below.  Winter Storm Warnings are now appearing in a number of areas, and there was a definite bump upward in the projected accumulations map; accumulation tiers have been pushed outward a bit from the spine, and there’s a touch of that 18-24” shading appearing in the Rutland area.  Our forecast has seen just a slight uptick here, with something in the 4-10” range expected through Sunday at 7:00 P.M.

15JAN21C.jpg

15JAN21D.jpg

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Really tough forecast for my location and my higher elevation compared to the surrounding area.   Could be an inch or two of glop or 6 or 8" of heavy wet snow.  Earlier this season there was that big blown forecast my my hood when it looked like we would get a birch bender and ended up with 2" of snow then a flip.  Models sure throwing out a lot of liquid.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out for me.

For those north of me perhaps the upslope will be bigger than the synoptic part of the storm

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The BTV NWS map updates for the afternoon are in, and I’ve added them below.  Winter Storm Warnings are now appearing in a number of areas, and there was a definite bump upward in the projected accumulations map; accumulation tiers have been pushed outward a bit from the spine, and there’s a touch of that 18-24” shading appearing in the Rutland area.  Our forecast has seen just a slight uptick here, with something in the 4-10” range expected through Sunday at 7:00 P.M.

 

15JAN21C.jpg

15JAN21D.jpg

Was hoping for a little more than the 3” projected. 

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23 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Was hoping for a little more than the 3” projected. 

I think you'll do better with your elevation.  Just like I think that's overdone for Stowe down at 750ft.... but upslope could get there.  Your house at 1,100-1,200ft should do nicely as I feel like those highlands around there get good SE upslope flow.

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RGEM painting my area in the jackpot. The upslope/downslope effects during this storm could be quite extreme. Super tough call here at 1500' but I know I'll be cranking out some pretty ridiculous precip rates from about 9am-3pm and a good amount of that should be snow. This is a classic setup for my area to be near the QPF maximum.

rgem_snow.PNG

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5 minutes ago, jculligan said:

RGEM painting my area in the jackpot. The upslope/downslope effects during this storm could be quite extreme. Super tough call here at 1500' but I know I'll be cranking out some pretty ridiculous precip rates from about 9am-3pm and a good amount of that should be snow. This is a classic setup for my area to be near the QPF maximum.

rgem_snow.PNG

RGEM has had that more SE precip max for several cycles now. Very consistent. 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Was hoping for a little more than the 3” projected. 

Agree with PF..over 1200 ft with some SE flow upslope assist think you could do better. Going strictly by that map, I cant see Manchester getting more than your area unless the backside west flow upslope delivers.

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13 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Phin heading north to visit pf, jspin and I after this season.

3A38E2AD-CCC7-44C5-BF27-3835D15D42BD.jpeg

 

13 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

 

 

He'll soon be jamming the hell out of the air guitar to this while being doused in upslope

 

I saw Phish a bunch from 1989 to 1993.   Mutual friends, some fun parties but not really my cup of tea.

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.3

Snow Density: 13.6% H2O

Temperature: 33.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

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This storm has started up here, so the overnight BTV NWS map updates will be the last ones ahead of the storm.

For the advisories map, the notable change around here was the pushing of Winter Storm Warnings northward into eastern Addison County.

For the Event Total Snowfall map, a quick toggling between this version and the previous one shows some increases in projected accumulations along the higher elevations of the spine, with some decreases in the Champlain Valley, Upstate New York, and some lower elevations to the east and west.  An area of 18-24” shading has appeared in the Mt. Mansfield stretch of the spine, and the point forecast there is topping out around 26” on top of whatever they picked up overnight.  The point forecast at our site has seen a small bump to the 6-12” range, which I would typically expect to be form the back side/upslope portion, but it generally seems to be due to the fact that the forecast for today was increased to the 3-7” range.

16JAN21A.jpg

16JAN21B.jpg

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I've been bumped up to a Warning.  It is snowing  lightly and we have about half an inch so far.  Enough to cover the dog poo in the yard.

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7 minutes ago, klw said:

I've been bumped up to a Warning.  It is snowing  lightly and we have about half an inch so far.  Enough to cover the dog poo in the yard.

I’m assuming that’s for Orange County?  They must have just done that, because I definitely would have noted it if they’d managed to get it on the overnight advisories map.  The only addition I saw at that point was the one for Addison County.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

A pasted quarter inch on the trees.  Very wet it seems.

This forecast for the mountain seems aggressive.

Today
Snow. High near 31. Breezy, with an east wind 19 to 24 mph becoming east 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. 
Tonight
Snow. Low around 27. Light west wind increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 
Sunday
Snow. High near 27. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

 

There’s a definite bump for the Mt. Mansfield area at elevation on the latest Event Total Snowfall map as I mentioned above, and the BTV NWS AFD talks about it:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

640 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 453 AM EST Saturday... Quite the impressive satellite imagery this morning with water vapor showing moisture exploding northward ahead of surface low pressure developing west of the benchmark and south of Long Island Sound. Latest RAP analysis shows pressure falls taking the low directly north up the CT River Valley, placing the forecast area in the sweet spot for QPF with the latest HREF and NAM3 showing upwards of 1.5" of liquid across the higher peaks through 00Z Sunday.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I’m assuming that’s for Orange County?  They must have just done that, because I definitely would have noted it if they’d managed to get it on the overnight advisories map.  The only addition I saw at that point was the one for Addison County.

 

No, Windsor county.  We had been under an advisory yesterday when I last checked.https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ012&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ012&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=43.7567&lon=-72.364#.YAL2oHpOmhA

it looks like the warning went up just before 4 this morning.

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