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Met1985

2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

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3kNAM is north, which is following other guidance at this point of pulling more north. I'm ready for spring. I'm tired of trying to sell trucks in the cold.

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17 for my morning low. I see Cataloochee has been making snow for almost 36 hours straight! Also good to see another sold out ski session for the day tomorrow. Lift tickets are available for the evening ski session. Looks like a light wintry mix Advisory level event tomorrow night into Sunday morning locally with a Warning possible for Beech. My hunch is the NW flow event could be interesting for the Mountains and possibly reach Warning criteria above 3500 feet for Monday into Tuesday. 

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the northern mountains, Blue Ridge, foothills and northwest Piedmont. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.
e06a25e73a1d6cffc6fa73197198fe35.jpg

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Looking at soundings on the HRRR and NAM 3km, there is a considerable difference on early Sunday morning.  It does appear that the tongue of precip will move through initially around 3pm-5pm, and that will persist in the northern area of WNC through 10pm or so.  Most of that will fall as snow.  But I don't think it accumulates.  Then the soundings differ.  NAM 3km has a bit more pronounced warm nose at the onset of precipitation early Sunday morning.  HRRR is not as cold, but doesn't have the pronounced warm nose.  I see a couple hours of snow possible early Sunday even for valley locations.  Then a mess will ensue it looks like.  Hoping the HRRR is right and its a bit warmer because ice is not very fun.

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9 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Looking at soundings on the HRRR and NAM 3km, there is a considerable difference on early Sunday morning.  It does appear that the tongue of precip will move through initially around 3pm-5pm, and that will persist in the northern area of WNC through 10pm or so.  Most of that will fall as snow.  But I don't think it accumulates.  Then the soundings differ.  NAM 3km has a bit more pronounced warm nose at the onset of precipitation early Sunday morning.  HRRR is not as cold, but doesn't have the pronounced warm nose.  I see a couple hours of snow possible early Sunday even for valley locations.  Then a mess will ensue it looks like.  Hoping the HRRR is right and its a bit warmer because ice is not very fun.

What you thinking for places like Marion, seems like we could be in a decent spot 

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What you thinking for places like Marion, seems like we could be in a decent spot 

Yeah that cold air could lock it for a couple more hours. Wouldnt be surprised to see you wake up to a couple of crusty inches Sunday morning.

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2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Yeah that cold air could lock it for a couple more hours. Wouldnt be surprised to see you wake up to a couple of crusty inches Sunday morning.

Thanks Ward, I sure hope so. Short range models seem to be generally trending a bit colder so it will be interesting. I definitely hope we don't get power issues with lots of ice. 

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14 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I'm more interested in the nwf behind it.

 

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I was just looking at the models about that.  The flow looks rather strong and long lived actually.  The cold air behind this system is pretty impressive for what it is. Should have highs in the 20s. Im thinking maybe 3 to 6 inches from that. 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Had a low of 12 this morning.  Hope yall do well with the mixed bag of winter weather.  We do not do well in CAD events like this. 

The foothills can have there ice, I’d rather have the chance of snow on the flow.

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2 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I'm more interested in the nwf behind it.

 

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Yep.  Snow Saturday overnnight isn't as exciting when you wake up Sunday to rain.  But a few days of nwf could be nice.  

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For the little people!

 

Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville and Tuckasegee
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Northern Jackson and Southern Jackson
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sun

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Looks like things are going to be a sloppy mess for tonight into tomorrow morning for a lot of the mountains but how long does the cold air hang on and how much is snow or ice will probably be a real time unfolding of things. Anyways it will be fun to watch. 

As for the upslope machine unfolding Sunday night into Monday night, the signal is very strong. This looks to be a very impressive event. Im even seeing were some places could approach a foot of snow according to the GFS. im still going with the 3 to 6 inches but that may need to be upped by tomorrow morning.  Should be our most impressive upslope event of the season. 

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Hey if a moderator sees this can the mountain thread be pinned also during these events? I know we get used to us seeing winter weather but it would help just not having to scroll down so far to find our thread during these winter weather events.  Thank in advance.  Sincerely Met1985. 

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As Met and others have already mentioned, the NW flow snow looks very robust.  This is the latest GFS 48 percip starting 6z Monday(1am) ending 6z Wednesday (1am) which should encompass the whole NWFS event.   In most of our NWFS events the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower.  With this one 700mb (9-10k feet up) moisture is going to be plenty throughout Monday.  Then as the 700mb moisture moves out Monday night, the coldest 850mb temps come in with plenty of 850mb moisture around to keep this thing going well into Tuesday.

The GFS precip map has only been increasing each run.  Anything blue or inside the blues is at least 5" of snow.  Like already mentioned this will likely be the best NWFS event this season and I would expect 6-12" to be common above 4k feet.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-carolinas-precip_48hr_inch-2332000.png

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42 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

As Met and others have already mentioned, the NW flow snow looks very robust.  This is the latest GFS 48 percip starting 6z Monday(1am) ending 6z Wednesday (1am) which should encompass the whole NWFS event.   In most of our NWFS events the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower.  With this one 700mb (9-10k feet up) moisture is going to be plenty throughout Monday.  Then as the 700mb moisture moves out Monday night, the coldest 850mb temps come in with plenty of 850mb moisture around to keep this thing going well into Tuesday.

The GFS precip map has only been increasing each run.  Anything blue or inside the blues is at least 5" of snow.  Like already mentioned this will likely be the best NWFS event this season and I would expect 6-12" to be common above 4k feet.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-carolinas-precip_48hr_inch-2332000.png

Spot on Moto. Thats one thing I've been noticing is that the totals on just about all the models are increasing just about each run. This is going to be a very impressive event I think.

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Patiently waiting for my mixed bag that will be mostly rain I’m sure :lol:.  Flow setup looks to be great, maybe I can eek out an inch or two depending on the angle (although the strength looks to be that that could happen anyway). Man, STILL waiting to experience a Miller A since moving here.  2 years on the 15th.

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HRRR looking good for the high County, has most of the area in the 4-6 range and less mixing through 9 am tomorrow. Granted it burned me big time for the last event so taking it was a bag of salt.

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

HRRR looking good for the high County, has most of the area in the 4-6 range and less mixing through 9 am tomorrow. Granted it burned me big time for the last event so taking it was a bag of salt.

The HRRR sucks....

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Just now, Met1985 said:

The HRRR sucks....

The WRF models agree so don't take my hopes away :lol:. I'm just trying to find hope that it won't be as icy so I can enjoy my day off.

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1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

The WRF models agree so don't take my hopes away :lol:. I'm just trying to find hope that it won't be as icy so I can enjoy my day off.

I just don't want you to get sucked into that rabbit hole again lol.

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

I just don't want you to get sucked into that rabbit hole again lol.

Well the 3k Nam look a bit better as well, though a lot of the accumulation is still sleet/Frz rain, but still better overall than the 6z. 

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Ceiling is lowering quickly and I see some virga developing now. Temperature is rising steadily since my morning low of 22. 32 now at the house. Interesting to see reports of sleet across Northern Alabama this morning. I'm not expecting anything more than an inch or two for this event. Good luck folks!

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