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moneypitmike

September 2020 Discussion

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Suckerhole. Point is it’s wet for the region as a whole.

E49B69D4-431F-4E25-816D-48E6849A4844.jpeg

When 1.7 is a sucker hole well....

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Might be a sneaky band in ctrl and ern areas Monday too. In any case, the next two weeks offer several chances it seems. Stein is dead after mid week.

Stein will go down like a cold frosty beer.  This ain’t your summertime blues pattern.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 

Tell him it ain't summah anymore Skippy

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply 

To me, this applies. :weenie:

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

What constitutes 'warm months"?  End of Sept/Early October? 

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

-2.8 on the month now after yesterday’s +7.  We are going to eat into that pretty good but I bet we can get a BN September for the first time in a while.

Was -2.7 after last Tuesday, 3 straight AN days have cut that to -1.8.  Would need to average +9 these last 5 days to avoid the month being BN.  Could be close but I think we end up about -0.5, essentially average.  Mid 40s this morning so today should be +5-6.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply 

 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies

 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply 

 

Kevin arguing Scooter on the application of Scooter's rule.  Classic.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Was -2.7 after last Tuesday, 3 straight AN days have cut that to -1.8.  Would need to average +9 these last 5 days to avoid the month being BN.  Could be close but I think we end up about -0.5, essentially average.  Mid 40s this morning so today should be +5-6.

Basically neutral departure here now.

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

 

Kevin arguing Scooter on the application of Scooter's rule.  Classic.

It’s not really a rule. It’s one of those things that when you have a lack of good forcing and a blob of convection modeled, you tend to have less moisture downwind of this and the heavier rain will end up more east and south. It’s more for those MCS type deals moving to the ESE. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a rule. It’s one of those things that when you have a lack of good forcing and a blob of convection modeled, you tend to have less moisture downwind of this and the heavier rain will end up more east and south. It’s more for those MCS type deals moving to the ESE. 

Someone else had called it a rule.  :)

Either way, lets get the show on the road for winter qpf discussions.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 weeks and a day since even a trace here

We definitely had some rain showers in the area last week that had actual drop of rain falling from the sky (not enough to even wet the pavement), but otherwise we've had several of these mist events that triggered a T at PWM. Otherwise we're at two weeks without measurable.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 weeks and a day since even a trace here

Yeah, he's lucky if he's had a trace in the past week. I think .10" was my single biggest rainfall in the past month! 

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Face timed with our daughter last night.   She stated colors are fabulous up there.   I’ll be in NH next weekend for our annual men’s weekend (45 years and running!).   We’ll head up to VT late week-around the 7-8th depending on my wife’s work schedule...

Seasons changing-but for now back to shorts.

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32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some fantastic color around my house (right on the edge of the hockomock swamp) and heading up 495 to go apple picking 

Unreal how fast it changed. We will peak weeks early. Heavy rain next week will take down the drought weakened leaves

20200926_104210.jpg

20200926_104207.jpg

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

To me, this applies. :weenie:

Defense mechanism running overtime these days.  The models look widespread very wet, hard to argue against it right now.

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Unreal how fast it changed. We will peak weeks early. Heavy rain next week will take down the drought weakened leaves

20200926_104210.jpg

20200926_104207.jpg

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Yeah--pretty dramatic shift here at Pit2 over the course of the 5 days I've been up here.  I'm still awaiting the progged mostly sunny.  Stuck in overcast ever since the fog lifted. Still only 58*, not sure how the progged 67* will work out.

Heading back to Westborough and summer in a few hours in any case.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Defense mechanism running overtime these days.  The models look widespread very wet, hard to argue against it right now.

Given how deep that trough is going to be and how forcing will parallel the boundary there should be plenty of rain along it. Especially if we can get that little wave to form along the front.

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