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SVR potential late Wed-Thu August 26-27 NYC metro


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Meh

WW0457 Radar

SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   315 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Southeast New York and Long Island
     Southern Rhode Island
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible
     Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Cluster of embedded supercells will spread from the Lower
   Hudson Valley across southwest New England with a risk for all
   severe hazards.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Poughkeepsie NY
   to 30 miles southeast of Block Island RI. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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Just now, Juliancolton said:

It was sporting an impressive wall cloud structure a few minutes ago as the cell passed just to my north. There's no fast/good road east so I couldn't get out ahead of it, unfortunately.

Wow. So, is there no tornado with storm or can you not see below the wall cloud?

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16 minutes ago, ARyan said:

Yikes! Some pretty low CC values with that storm near Amenia.

 

6 minutes ago, ARyan said:

Wow. So, is there no tornado with storm or can you not see below the wall cloud?

I'm in Brookfield CT right now and that cell is sliding by to the north and east. It's ugly, roiling clouds, black as could be and with a kickass outflow boundary that's stirring things up pretty good here.

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3 minutes ago, ny10019 said:

looks like NYC metro is missing out on everything again today? 

Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing .   Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done. 

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10 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing .   Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done. 

So this post couldn't be any more wrong. The atmosphere is plenty unstable. Just a matter of storm motion. 

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11 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing .   Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done. 

The warm front just enhances the shear locally but the rest of the region is still in play for severe weather. It's just that the tornado threat is much lower.

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17 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing .   Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done. 

Lee Goldberg just showed a futurecast that showed a strong line of storms going through northern Jersey and NYC around 10pm. It's just 1 model and we don't know if it'll be correct, but it's a possibility.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z 3k NAM has two lines moving through the area, one around 00z and the next one at 06z. The line moving through CT smacks Suffolk.

Actually now that I’m looking storms are firing in western NY state. That could be our shot later on tonight 

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z 3k NAM has two lines moving through the area, one around 00z and the next one at 06z. The line moving through CT smacks Suffolk.

The HRRR has another line developing from PA to LI in a couple of hours. It's not as intense but at the same time it might be under doing the current storms.

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Rainfall reports of 1/2-1.9 inches so far parts of se NYS into s central CT in our forum area.  A nice start...  going to be interesting on some of these numbers by 03Z/Sunday...esp CT, se NYS and maybe  LI.  UKMET extreme of 7" may not be far off the mark...just don't know where yet.  Events have to overlap.  Should be a few interesting numbers of 2+"  by midnight tonight. 

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