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George BM

August Discobs 2020

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Nothing much this afternoon other than a miss, and some distant thunder. Not sure what happened before sunrise, but it rained i guess.

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57 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Nothing much this afternoon other than a miss, and some distant thunder. Not sure what happened before sunrise, but it rained i guess.

If you look out the window and the ground is moist, it probably DID rain.

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22 minutes ago, coolio said:

If you look out the window and the ground is moist, it probably DID rain.

Best comment of the day and surely the most useful!

Given the number of small systems crawling around, no regional forecast is really valid.

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10 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Down in the northern neck it definitely has the feeling of a developing tropical low. Gusty winds, dark skies and rain bands 

In the Northern Northern Neck maybe, farther down its pretty boring. Y’all got lucky up there.

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Just another 4"+ twenty four hour period here in the tropical rainforest of AA county. Looks like 4.10" since last evening. Almost 3 of those inches fell this morning. I've never seen it this swampy and nasty in my life. Mosquitoes are insane. 

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Downright pleasant outside all of a sudden with a light breeze. Still pretty muggy, but feels decent.

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Thanks to @WeatherShak for posting that radar loop above.  How else could rain miss me?  How about a cell passing east-to-west a mile or two south?  Yep.

Yeah I have received a couple hundreds, but that's not gonna cut it for my parched, hardpan yard.

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51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

0.00" for yesterday and today's grand total.  Euro shows .08" through Sunday night here lol . Any heavy stuff well south of my hood .

18z gfs is a deluge for the whole area Sunday.  Ggem fairly wet too. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z gfs is a deluge for the whole area Sunday.  Ggem fairly wet too. 

18z GFS is a deluge for the region the entire run... 6-8" in N VA/DC/C MD

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5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

18z gfs is a deluge for the whole area Sunday.  Ggem fairly wet too. 

00z GGEM is quite the soaker for the weekend... 00z GFS is wet, but not as wet as the 18z run showed.  00z NAM probably falls in line with these two models regarding rainfall of 1-3".

00z UKIE is quite dry north of a line say from Prince William County to Warrenton to Luray... compared to the other two globals above, it shows less then 0.5" QPF for those north of the line mentioned

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Yes please on Sunday after the Saturday washout (from this mornings AFD from LWX):

By Sunday morning, the low should be pushing off to the east,
taking the rain with it. Some guidance is a little slower
however, so leaving some POPs in through the early afternoon.
Though, do think there is a good shot we are dry by early
afternoon. Sunday will be much cooler than normal, with highs in
the mid to upper 70s (low 80s closer to the water). Just hope we
can get the rain out of here early enough to enjoy it. Sunday
night will be dry, with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the
higher elevations to upper 60s in the typical normal areas along
the waters.

 

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9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

18z gfs is a deluge for the whole area Sunday.  Ggem fairly wet too. 

Gfs  slipping south past  2 runs . Euro is driest run yet  near the M/D line. Add the Ukmet to the dry list as  well lol. 3k also sharp cutoff up here . Your yard probably still game for some potential soakers but I'm thinking heaviest stays DC and Virginia .

Today looks dry up here as well . Hoping to take  a cruise in the Grand National after work. 

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs  slipping south past  2 runs . Euro is driest run yet  near the M/D line. Add the Ukmet to the dry list as  well lol. 3k also sharp cutoff up here . Your yard probably still game for some potential soakers but I'm thinking heaviest stays DC and Virginia .

Today looks dry up here as well . Hoping to take  a cruise in the Grand National after work. 

6z GFS still looks like a very big rain event for MD.

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Yeah, 6z gfs an inch plus area wide with 2-3 along the bay. nam more robust in areas further south. Regardless, no more rain here, please.

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I'm getting use to the sound of pounding rain every morning and clouds of mosquitoes. This morning is no exception. What a surprise. More rain in the forecast.

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6z Gfs .5"- .75" along m/d line . The trend is obvious in that model past 3 runs . Euro /Eps has been real dry up here the past several runs l. Most guidance is very meager with qpf for extreme northern Md.  I realize there's like only 4 members that live  up this way :D

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