Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[NJwx85]

The current structure or appearance of the storm while it’s still down in the tropics has little if any impacts on what’s going to happen up here, unless the system had dissipated which clearly it hasn’t.

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, KrazyKeyur said:

As of right now NWS is expecting 4 inches of rain between today 8 PM and Wednesday 2 PM.

Over 3 inches between 8 AM tomorrow and 2 AM wednesday

If you’re in much of NJ, E PA and the Hudson valley, sure. If you’re East of the city, no way unless this ends up taking much more of a NE turn than expected. 

[NJwx85]

You can already see the rain shield fanning out and extending Northward. Center is just East of Saint Mary’s, GA and the steady rain is approaching Myrtle Beach.

[weathermedic]

Radar looks like convection (or at least rain) is slowly trying to wrap around the center of circulation.

[David-LI]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Can anyone expand on the discussion/ explain that tornado parameter image?

 

[NJwx85]

Don’t be surprised if they hoist hurricane watches for LI. Several models are showing gust potential up to 65kts.

[Big Jims Videos]

An 80 mph gust on LI and 70 on the Jersey Shore is a good possibility.  I'll be covering this one from manasquan (as usual) and certainly emphasize the tornado threat.  

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ?

Interaction with the trough will enhance the winds. Some areas will come close to hurricane force wind gusts especially on the coast.

He says this for every single storm. Let him do his thing. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

He says this for every single storm. Let him do his thing. 

I think  a reasonable call is 1-2 inches of rain for NYC with winds 20-35 and gusts up to 60 with a few locations  hitting 70

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

An 80 mph gust on LI and 70 on the Jersey Shore is a good possibility.  I'll be covering this one from manasquan (as usual) and certainly emphasize the tornado threat.  

I'd be shocked if we didn't see some hurricane force gusts. This storm has been big on winds from the start.

The winds on the east side of an accelerating tropical system can be quite powerful. 

[psv88]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I'd be shocked if we didn't see some hurricane force gusts. This storm has been big on winds from the start.

The winds on the east side of an accelerating tropical system can be quite powerful. 

Yea, i think the south shore beaches gust to 65, ISP and FRG will gust mid-50s. We will see some outages out here.

[SnowGoose69]

Remember these things tend to be a bit more east of what you expect.  I would not be surprised to see the metro spared the worst winds in the end with a 20-30 mile east kick.  Central-East LI though are locks to see strong winds 

[NJwx85]

12z HWRF has a period of 50-60kts for Sandy Hook, NY Harbor and 40-45kts for Southern Queens, Brooklyn and SI. Elsewhere sustained winds look to be in the 20-30kt range which I personally think is a bit underdone compared to model consensus. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Remember these things tend to be a bit more east of what you expect.  I would not be surprised to see the metro spared the worst winds in the end with a 20-30 mile east kick.  Central-East LI though are locks to see strong winds 

Models are tightly clustered on taking the center near Philly. Difference then is does it continue on a NNE heading into Upstate NY which would deliver the winds or does it take more of an Easterly pivot which would kick the wind potential East of the city?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Models are tightly clustered on taking the center near Philly. Difference then is does it continue on a NNE heading into Upstate NY which would deliver the winds or does it take more of an Easterly pivot which would kick the wind potential East of the city?

 

NNE moving tropicals verify east of the NHC forecast at 24-48 hours 90% of the time I think. 

[NJwx85]

Is this real?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Is this real?

Those are always overdone

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those are always overdone

Overdone by how much? Cut them in half and you have widespread 50-70mph gusts.

[Sportybx]

The Ukie has been consistent with those models . 

[MJO812]

The ukie has been really consistent  in showing alot of rain and damaging  winds for the area.

[Nibor]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Is this real?

It's been consistently the strongest modeling of the globals. Hope it's wrong.

[NJwx85]

12Z UKMET rain totals

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The ukie has been really consistent  in showing alot of rain and damaging  winds for the area.

There aren’t going to be 100+mph gusts with this. That’s insane. I’d say maybe 70-75 right on the beaches and 60mph elsewhere East of the center. 

[allgame830]

Those two UKIE maps are some serious business.... like others have said prob cut that wind map in half which is still up in the storm force wind just range.... i am sure a few locations will see hurricane force wind gusts.  However, the precip map is extremely concerning on top of those winds.  Any thoughts on 4-7" of rain? 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There aren’t going to be 100+mph gusts with this. That’s insane. I’d say maybe 70-75 right on the beaches and 60mph elsewhere East of the center. 

Agreed but you just never know. Huge blowup of convection currently to the North and NW of the center. The change in directional shear is allowing this to have one last gasp. Radar is a bit long range but looks like it may have closed off an "eyewall" again.

[wkd]

42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

NNE moving tropicals verify east of the NHC forecast at 24-48 hours 90% of the time I think. 

If thats true why doesn't the NHC incorporate that knowledge into their discussion on storm trackC

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Those two UKIE maps are some serious business.... like others have said prob cut that wind map in half which is still up in the storm force wind just range.... i am sure a few locations will see hurricane force wind gusts.  However, the precip map is extremely concerning on top of those winds.  Any thoughts on 4-7" of rain? 

Moving awfully fast to dump that much rain IMO

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Moving awfully fast to dump that much rain IMO

Any interactions with the trough can do wonders. The storm is looking better down south .

 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Euro?