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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We had some surprisingly big long period ground swell at Jones beach yesterday. It led to some rescues and the eventual closing of the water due to a severe injury in the shore break.
The remarkable thing was, this swell was created when there was just a large trough open wave. Tropical storm force winds extended out 405 miles and shows the power of fetch in swell generation.  
We have seen major beach washovers 

 

 

8513B365-002E-40ED-A1B0-BB6752619A6B.jpeg

1F262186-CC20-463A-BBE2-D57F84D12C6C.jpeg

The shore break at Robert Moses was pretty intense also but it was relatively easily managed. 

So far this morning I've had less than 1 minute of very light drizzle. Since about 7:30 I can see the rain to my north but I'm dry. I have no need for severe but an inch of rain would be nice.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Many 4-6" amounts near Kutztown PA early today. Here's a snapshot. 

 

0.20 here in Wantage NJ since RB around 545A. 

Screen Shot 2020-08-02 at 8.21.50 AM.png

Through 10 am, Reading had received 5.89” rain. That broke the daily record of 2.62” from 1973 and the monthly record of 4.52”, which was set on August 22, 1888. It is also Reading’s 4th highest daily rainfall on record. The record is 6.73”, which was set on October 4, 1869.

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted

Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 10 am, Reading had received 5.89” rain. That broke the daily record of 2.62” from 1973 and the monthly record of 4.52”, which was set on August 22, 1888. It is also Reading’s 4th highest daily rainfall on record. The record is 6.73”, which was set on October 4, 1869.

Thanks much Don!  Potent where it coalesces. Excellent info.  Walt

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs also shifted slightly east with the heaviest rain.

Right now it looks like the heaviest rain will be just west of NYC  unless this storm shifts more east in future runs.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

Slight wobbles can make a big difference here on who gets the heavies rains. IMO the models may continue to adjust slightly east but regardless if areas in and around the city miss out on the heaviest rains they will have a better chance of severe weather with a few spin ups possible along with windier conditions. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Anthony didn’t we have a tropical storm just last year that missed Florida coast by an inch and ended up missing us entirely just a few days before coming up here? I don’t think we miss but I think we get a benchmark track here with a medium impact around Long Island and heavy rain everywhere else. Lighter rains once you pass Sussex county New Jersey 

Matthew?

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Anthony didn’t we have a tropical storm just last year that missed Florida coast by an inch and ended up missing us entirely just a few days before coming up here? I don’t think we miss but I think we get a benchmark track here with a medium impact around Long Island and heavy rain everywhere else. Lighter rains once you pass Sussex county New Jersey 

Dorian

 

1280px-Dorian_2019_track.png

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs also shifted slightly east with the heaviest rain.

Right now it looks like the heaviest rain will be just west of NYC  unless this storm shifts more east in future runs.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

Agree man

Weird to see you posting during the summer lol 

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495weatherguy

495weatherguy

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

No one should want this to occur--could be a very scary situation if this comes to fruition

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Should be a good deal of rain out ahead of the core as it interacts with the trough which will draw the moisture poleward. The actual core should be intense but it’s a very fast mover. I think rain totals might be in the 3-5” range, unless the PRE is more intense than it currently looks.

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