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Tropical Storm Fay

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

looks like an Irene track....

Yep

I got alot of rain but barely any wind from Irene here 

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18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Damn. Not good for LI. Probably some gusts close to hurricane force on the eastern quadrant. 

I doubt anyone will see that except the immediate beaches at most. I would say in the populated areas, maybe gusts to 60 in a couple of spots. The sustained 60 is over open water.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I doubt anyone will see that except the immediate beaches at most. I would say in the populated areas, maybe gusts to 60 in a couple of spots. The sustained 60 is over open water.

Agreed, I could see JFK gusting to 50. The cough shore barrier islands to 60 with a direct onshore flow off the ocean. 

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

someone noted yesterday the storm would be ventilated by the incoming trough over the OV.   Maybe that's the case for strengthening despite it being over borderline water temps

That was me.

I think it's more the fact that it's in a very good upper air environment. Normally at this latitude you have the Westerlies picking at it and a strong trough inflicting shear. This really is an anomalous storm.

wg8sht.GIF

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I doubt anyone will see that except the immediate beaches at most. I would say in the populated areas, maybe gusts to 60 in a couple of spots. The sustained 60 is over open water.

I'm in Long Beach about a block from the ocean. This afternoon should be interesting...

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like an Irene track....

Irene spent a lot of time over land in NC.

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8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I doubt anyone will see that except the immediate beaches at most. I would say in the populated areas, maybe gusts to 60 in a couple of spots. The sustained 60 is over open water.

Some of the higher elevations in interior NJ and SE NY could see some stronger winds than expected.

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22 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I doubt anyone will see that except the immediate beaches at most. I would say in the populated areas, maybe gusts to 60 in a couple of spots. The sustained 60 is over open water.

Gusts to 50 can still do some damage to fully leafed out trees. Obviously we wont see sustained to 60 over land, but gusts to 50 a few miles inland on the island will result on power outages.

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast Pa is going to get lots of rain as tropical convection just dies there. 

Yes but we're still going to get a lot of rain from the stuff moving in off the ocean.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but we're still going to get a lot of rain from the stuff moving in off the ocean.

When do you think we get hit with the stronger winds?

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Just now, nycsnow said:

When do you think we get hit with the stronger winds?

Mid-afternoon into tonight. It's going to take awhile for those feeder bands to rotate in.

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20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast Pa is going to get lots of rain as tropical convection just dies there. 

Yeah I think the models are underdone there

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z GFS totals

gfs_apcpn_neus_5.png

I feel like the heaviest totals will be 30-40 miles west of this...do you think the GFS is accurate here? unless the radar will really fill in more later...

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OXB: 5.19
WWD: 3.78
DOV: 3.76
ACY: 3.11
PHL: 1.13
BLM: 0.63
TTN: 0.23

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