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George BM

July Discobs 2020

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seeing occasional cg lightning in the distance.  no rain here as i'm on the west side of this cell.  looks decent though.

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15 minutes ago, 87storms said:

that's definitely an active storm in southern moco.  getting a fireworks display here.

Incredible rain producer here.  Over 2 inches in ~30 min.  Several lightning strikes within a half-mile, including one that couldn't be more than 100 yards away.  Once the storm passes, the kids and I will head out to see if we can find where it struck.

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Looking at the Eps there's some minor support for the late week coastal low throwing back moisture to i95 corridor but majority miss us or are coastal hits so a Nam scenario looks unlikely atm . What a surprise..right:D  Inside 72 hours so the ops should probably be given alot of weight and the Euro is a miss as well . Maybe we'll get Bob's and EJs cat5 up the bay in September. 

 

Edit...

That said ....18z Euro comes in with a more robust vort signature for Thurs/Fri closer to the Nam look  . At the surface mostly a miss still for i95 and west  but a 1005mb  low sitting near OC and a good bit closer to the coast . NE Md pummeled lol....N. DE towards  Jersey get in on the effects . 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking at the Eps there's some minor support for the late week coastal low throwing back moisture to i95 corridor but majority miss us or are coastal hits so a Nam scenario looks unlikely atm . What a surprise..right:D  Inside 72 hours so the ops should probably be given alot of weight and the Euro is a miss as well . Maybe we'll get Bob's and EJs cat5 up the bay in September. 

 

Edit...

That said ....18z Euro comes in with a more robust vort signature for Thurs/Fri closer to the Nam look  . At the surface mostly a miss still for i95 and west  but a 1005mb  low sitting near OC and a good bit closer to the coast . NE Md pummeled lol....N. DE towards  Jersey get in on the effects . 

Yeah I think we’ll know a lot more if/when 98L gets to the coast. More organized is better for everyone in the rain department.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking at the Eps there's some minor support for the late week coastal low throwing back moisture to i95 corridor but majority miss us or are coastal hits so a Nam scenario looks unlikely atm . What a surprise..right:D  Inside 72 hours so the ops should probably be given alot of weight and the Euro is a miss as well . Maybe we'll get Bob's and EJs cat5 up the bay in September. 

 

Edit...

That said ....18z Euro comes in with a more robust vort signature for Thurs/Fri closer to the Nam look  . At the surface mostly a miss still for i95 and west  but a 1005mb  low sitting near OC and a good bit closer to the coast . NE Md pummeled lol....N. DE towards  Jersey get in on the effects . 

If this was winter......we would all start our cliff diving ASAP. :lol:

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Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark. 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark. 

 

The upcoming period looks active/interesting, with the tropical system, followed by a trough and possible stalled front, with yet another upper low in the vicinity early next week. Beyond that pretty much all guidance agrees on the idea of building impressive Atlantic ridging towards the end of next week. As advertised, it looks pretty brutal. Hopefully it wont become a fixture.

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Euro popping a 599dm ridge over Ohio River Valley next week. :frostymelt: :sun:

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The upcoming period looks active/interesting, with the tropical system, followed by a trough and possible stalled front, with yet another upper low in the vicinity early next week. Beyond that pretty much all guidance agrees on the idea of building impressive Atlantic ridging towards the end of next week. As advertised, it looks pretty brutal. Hopefully it wont become a fixture.

Only a matter of time before there's a semi permanent Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) over the U.S during every summer.

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Someone is going to get flooded out later this week. It's not going to be widespread, but if I were Historic EC, I'd be nervous.

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26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Someone is going to get flooded out later this week. It's not going to be widespread, but if I were Historic EC, I'd be nervous.

Do you feel the greatest impact and flood threat is to our far NE over Long Island and New England? 

Looks like dangerous  rip tides, high surf, high tidal flooding and poor beach weather to say the least on the NJ and Delaware beaches Friday to Saturday nigh, . Also of note, some very warm SSTs East of VA .   

 

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’ll take the @C.A.P.E. route and set up the sprinkler.

Considering you can probably shift this east 50-100 miles, not a bad idea. :yikes:

namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats People of the Bay on the GFS. 

Looks a little tighter with the low. Slightly stronger and defo gets the heavier precip further inland this run. Looks like a little more dig with the trough dropping in over the GL and the Atlantic ridge also flexed a bit on this run.

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Just like in the winter, the NAM will lead the way and be the one we all hoped it would be.

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I'm not ready to buy in to heavier rain making it back to the I-95 corridor, but I'm definitely not ruling it out.    The NAM nest is certainly most aggressive, but there is some support from other CAMs for the precip bands extending further west, although even those solutions make it clear that the NAM nest is too fast.    It's also worth noting that the GFS tends to not generate sufficient precip on the west side of east coast storms, although there is more evidence for that with winter storms than with tropical hybrids.

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12z GFS is an absolute torch over the central and eastern U.S starting around the end of next week

gfs_z500a_us_37.png

gfs_z500a_us_62.png

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GEFS and EPS really swining for the fences as well. Canadian even pumps like a 594 dm ridge. Big EML / derecho favorable pattern.

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