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George BM

July Discobs 2020

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5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You’re always optimistic. Last year it was mid October.

We are in the period of summer now where 'cold' fronts don't change sensible weather much. Typically as we get into September we can see a more legit front or 2 come through that actually provides more noticeable short term relief.

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Here are the averages of 90-degree streaks of 14 days or more. Not imagined this one isn't all that intense so far... did start earlier than many. 

image.thumb.png.8da14d65f2eb703cca746fa8e38c321b.png

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Tomorrow looks pretty interesting, although models are kind of all over the place on the timing of the front, and overall not too impressive with storm coverage. Pretty decent shortwave energy will be rotating through, but the location and degree of convection probably comes down to timing. SPC does have much of the region in a marginal risk for tomorrow.

gfs_z500_vort_neus_6.png

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50 minutes ago, Ian said:

Here are the averages of 90-degree streaks of 14 days or more. Not imagined this one isn't all that intense so far... did start earlier than many. 

image.thumb.png.8da14d65f2eb703cca746fa8e38c321b.png

Good stuff....but it feels like using 90 degrees as the point to determine a heat wave seems odd around DC when our average high temp around now is 89-90. Looking at the graph, maybe at least 93 or 95 for three consecutive days is a better indicator of a true heat wave?

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24 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Good stuff....but it feels like using 90 degrees as the point to determine a heat wave seems odd around DC when our average high temp around now is 89-90. Looking at the graph, maybe at least 93 or 95 for three consecutive days is a better indicator of a true heat wave?

I would imagine there is at least some regional research on this but have not done any myself really. I do know of some other indexes like the wet bulb global temp which apparently have their uses. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/wbgt

I do agree it is imperfect but I am not sure it's a hill to die on. As long as we're comparing against like values... people will prob always gravitate toward 90 or 95 vs 92 for instance. 95 is prob too high here at least at the moment. 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We are in the period of summer now where 'cold' fronts don't change sensible weather much. Typically as we get into September we can see a more legit front or 2 come through that actually provides more noticeable short term relief.

I was just teasing you. Though I don’t like big heat, I’m not ready for fall weather just yet, but I’d sure appreciate some rain.

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46 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was just teasing you. Though I don’t like big heat, I’m not ready for fall weather just yet, but I’d sure appreciate some rain.

I actually ran the sprinkler a bit this morning lol.

I spread a dry fungus/disease control product on the lawn yesterday, and wanted to get it working into the soil. Does most of the work at the root level.

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it’s been really dry at my house. windy torrential downpour underway.

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That line in Frederick county is weakening.  Same thing happened Friday night and I got

.03" . Hopefully it holds together enough for a couple tenths here .

 

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Picked up right at .70  from a heavy shower, with no lightning/thunder.....Just perfect to play in the rain with my autistic 8 yr old little boy who is addicted to water.....

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA racks up another today.  Now it gets dicey.

I thought today would have been easily safe. Obs and sky cover show today was a squeaker.

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59 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That line in Frederick county is weakening.  Same thing happened Friday night and I got

.03" . Hopefully it holds together enough for a couple tenths here .

 

Fell apart again lol 

Some sprinkles 0.00"

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West of 95 is dry!!!!! I haven’t seen it this dry and dusty in a while! Some of you are screaming yay I got 0.32 in my back yard.....big deal? The majority of the area is really dry. Over the next week or so doesn’t look to be much different. Boring, hot, dry weather continues.

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Scored a decent amount of rain from two thundershowers this afternoon.  First one around 2:30 only dropped 0.08” but the one that just moved through added another 0.86”

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Getting a pretty good thunderstorm down around Fredericksburg the moment. 30-40 mph gusts and good lightning and rain

ETA: 0.41” so far in about 15 minutes 

finished with 0.55”, most rain in a day in at least 3 weeks.

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10 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was just teasing you. Though I don’t like big heat, I’m not ready for fall weather just yet, but I’d sure appreciate some rain.

90-92 in the Mid Atlantic shouldn’t be considered a heat wave.  I think the average high in DC is 89 during the height of summer.   

I am so not ready for fall...we’re like 2.5 weeks into ‘real’ summer lol

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Seems a bit better consensus DC can hit 90 tomorrow as we close. 

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