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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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Looks more like a 2013-2014 pattern with the big -EPO/+PNA and raging +NAO. Not that there’s anything wrong with that really...very good winter. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks more like a 2013-2014 pattern with the big -EPO/+PNA and raging +NAO. Not that there’s anything wrong with that really...very good winter. 

An absolutely epic winter here. Even a watered down version i would take it and run.

FB_IMG_1599269108210.jpg

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

An absolutely epic winter here. Even a watered down version i would take it and run.

Yeah over there it was an all timer for both snow and cold...some of the folks to your west had their coldest winter on record. Even Duluth MN which had records go back to the 1860s missed their coldest on record by like 0.2F or something ridiculous...the old record being like 1873-1874 or something like that I recall. 

 

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You know it seems like it’s been many years since we’ve had a bona fide across polar flow  Talkin plane departs Chelyabinsk and doesn’t stop until Atlanta Georgia

now I wasn’t paying attention and 2013 or 2015 for that matter back east here… But I don’t know if those were actually cross polar constructs and not just occasional dumps over the Alaskan sector out of a favorable EPO

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know it seems like it’s been many years since we’ve had a bona fide across polar flow  Talkin plane departs Chelyabinsk and doesn’t stop until Atlanta Georgia

Yeah we haven’t had a lot of that since the 2013-2014 to 2014-2015 winters....been a lot more zonal patterns since then, although 2017-2018 was pretty meridional at times...esp when we got that obscene late December arctic outbreak where we spent the better part of a week below 10F...though even that one wasn’t as deeply penetrating as some of those classic ones like from, say, early Feb 96 (circa weather channel reporting Tower MN got to -60F) or even back to back Dec 2009 and 2010 when we had deeply frozen orange crops into central FL. 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah over there it was an all timer for both snow and cold...some of the folks to your west had their coldest winter on record. Even Duluth MN which had records go back to the 1860s missed their coldest on record by like 0.2F or something ridiculous...the old record being like 1873-1874 or something like that I recall. 

 

it was crazy for many reasons. In addition to deep snow for months, it didn't make sense that we were seeing so much snow with that extreme cold. On (the few) days when it wasn't snowing there was constant blowing and drifting snow. I've never seen anything like it. If the snowpack wasn't so densely packed powder from all the drifting the depths would have been more insane. The wind was constant all winter. The polar vortex in early Jan was unlike anything I'd ever felt...-50 wind chills (what would that be like -70 with the old formula?), the pic below I took my glove off just to snap the sunset and it felt numb in seconds. Little did I know that it was only the beginning of nonstop snow. Snowbanks and ice in the river lasted to mid or late April, and ice flows on Lake Superior lasted into early June.

FB_IMG_1599270614994.jpg

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

it was crazy for many reasons. In addition to deep snow for months, it didn't make sense that we were seeing so much snow with that extreme cold. On (the few) days when it wasn't snowing there was constant blowing and drifting snow. I've never seen anything like it. If the snowpack wasn't so densely packed powder from all the drifting the depths would have been more insane. The wind was constant all winter. The polar vortex in early Jan was unlike anything I'd ever felt...-50 wind chills (what would that be like -70 with the old formula?), the pic below I took my glove off just to snap the sunset and it felt numb in seconds. Little did I know that it was only the beginning of nonstop snow. Snowbanks and ice in the river lasted to mid or late April, and ice flows on Lake Superior lasted into early June.

FB_IMG_1599270614994.jpg

Not to be a dink but I’m pretty sure all those months of winter that year were among the top 10 warmest months in global history ... Something disproportionate like that though
 

Jesus it’s been this way ..this continental folding really is favoring us in North America particularly in that ORD to Boston band we are like this permanent colder offset node because of increased tucking going on at very large super synoptic scales - You have to think Kelvin-Hemholdts waves almost like an analog but blown up really really large

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23 hours ago, weathafella said:

September look.....what do you think?

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

 

 

 

 

 

ssta.daily.current.png

This will likely continue strengthening through next week. 

That warm pool has an eerie resemblance to 2013-14 but at the same time it also concedes with a strengthening -PDO. Early guess would be 2013-14/2008-09 and 2017-18 blend using the most recent Nina years. La Nina's can transition into winter pretty quickly. Just ask Denver next week. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah over there it was an all timer for both snow and cold...some of the folks to your west had their coldest winter on record. Even Duluth MN which had records go back to the 1860s missed their coldest on record by like 0.2F or something ridiculous...the old record being like 1873-1874 or something like that I recall. 

 

Experienced a once in a lifetime ice storm in Dec 2013. Was also the coldest winter on record in more than 25 years in my neck of the woods. Apparently parts of Manitoba were colder than the surface of Mars that winter. Feb 2015 however was the coldest month ever recorded in Toronto. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2013-14 or 2008-09. 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

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17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I’m jealous.  If the Canadian border doesn’t open, that place is going to be a once in a lifetime powder party with 50% less skiers.  I truly think the locals up there are in for something special from a skiing standpoint... I mean millions of people cut off at the border a few miles away in Quebec/Montreal and suburbs, and Americans have to drive past every other ski area to get there, and they aren’t on a multi-mtn pass.  Place could be legit empty with that snowfall...wow.  I’m jealous, if there’s one place that you could grab the most possible powder turns this winter, it’s Jay hands down... it is in most winters anyway, but close Canada border traffic and it’s like a private powder party.

Stop up this winter...I agree 100 percent.  The glades on team side sometimes hold powder for a week.  Imagine fifty percent less traffic and the tram only dumping 25 percent of that total up top because of capacity restrictions. All of northern Vermont could really be special for locals and people staying up there. We were planning on renting out our place a bit more, but probably will just rent the holidays and a weekend here or there and just stay most of the winter.  My wife was told she would be remote “well into 2020” so it’s a lot easier.  
 

Could be epic if the winter cooperates.  That border closing is tough; The skiing part of me is looking forward to what could be, but the other part hopes it opens because jay really depends on it and I worry about the impact on the jobs and the resort.  It looked like they were starting to turn the corner from all the EB-5 bullshit and Steve Wright seemed like he was doing a good job running it and then covid changes everything.  My hope is that there are no outbreaks and shutdowns and the resorts are pleasantly surprised by demand from New England skiing the East more instead of the week long trips out west.

 

On a winter note, what winter patterns do you do best in your up there since upslope is the bread and butter and it’s less about synoptic.

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12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a dink but I’m pretty sure all those months of winter that year were among the top 10 warmest months in global history ... Something disproportionate like that though
 

Jesus it’s been this way ..this continental folding really is favoring us in North America particularly in that ORD to Boston band we are like this permanent colder offset node because of increased tucking going on at very large super synoptic scales - You have to think Kelvin-Hemholdts waves almost like an analog but blown up really really large

We all have enough to worry about our backyards much less what's going on in the whole globe weather wise lol.  I consider myself very green and environmentally conscious, but at the end of the day when it comes to the weather all I am worried about is what is happening in Michigan, just like ORH is about what's happening in Massachusetts, etc. Weather in other places certainly interests me, but all eyes are on mby for storms & current weather.

 

2013-14 was beyond incredible For so many reasons, including many that don't stick out when you look at the already record impressive weather stats.  Then the following Winter, when Boston was getting buried in snow in February, the Midwest and Great Lakes were experiencing one of their all time coldest months on record.  The cold in February 2015 was so intense. We had a nice deep snowpack as well, and it would have been far more impressive if the previous Winter wasn't fresh in the memory, but that month ended up 1st or 2nd coldest February on record at almost every major climate site in the region. It was competing with the longstanding February 1875. You can look up most major cities and you will see 1875 and 2015 as 1 or 2.

 

Then of course more recently was the cold snap in late January 2019. Unlike the previous 2 mentioned years which were brutal winters, this was more or less just a fleeting cold snap but it was ridiculously impressive. I think spots in Iowa were reading as low as 40 below.  The Chicago heat island got to like -28゚. Here on the cloudy side of Lake Michigan, Detroit "only" got to -15゚ but we still had windchills approaching -40゚. After feeling the -50゚ in 2014, I can't say it was the worst I've ever felt.  This area went like 4 decades straight in the mid 20th century without having any days as extremely brutal as the ones mentioned above in those 3 recent winters. Moral of my post? It doesn't really matter what's going on globally in terms of number crunching averages to tenths of degrees, the potential for extreme Winter weather in my opinion is still as high as ever for most of us reading this post.

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10 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Experienced a once in a lifetime ice storm in Dec 2013. Was also the coldest winter on record in more than 25 years in my neck of the woods. Apparently parts of Manitoba were colder than the surface of Mars that winter. Feb 2015 however was the coldest month ever recorded in Toronto. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2013-14 or 2008-09. 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

I remember that Ice storm well because I was driving to a Christmas party and it was very dicey. North of Detroit had freezing rain and by my house I had the old 33-34 and rain. It was one of the few times we saw liquid precipitation from early December until late March that Winter.  Funny side note, the cold rain soaked into the snow pack and it actually did end up leaving us with bare spots for Christmas. Still plenty of white, but you could see patches of grass in spots (even though it snowed a dusting on Christmas). The reason I say this was funny is because literally the only days without a solid snowpack from early December until late March were December 23-25. Couldn't make that up lol.

 

And I just brought up February 2015 in my recent my last post! I did not realize the all time record cold extended that far east.

 

And how can I forget 2008-2009?  Another solid Winter with well above average snowfall, a long lasting deep snow pack, and yet another year where the Detroit heat island managed to get to -15°. Even though outlying temperatures are always far more impressive, I bring up the numbers from the big cities because it shows just how intense the air mass was. Not saying there were not many impressive cold snaps over the years, but again I can say that these same heat islands went about 40 years mid 20th century without once seeing a temperature as impressive as has been seen FOUR different winters from 2009 to 2019. 

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43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I remember that Ice storm well because I was driving to a Christmas party and it was very dicey. North of Detroit had freezing rain and by my house I had the old 33-34 and rain. It was one of the few times we saw liquid precipitation from early December until late March that Winter.  Funny side note, the cold rain soaked into the snow pack and it actually did end up leaving us with bare spots for Christmas. Still plenty of white, but you could see patches of grass in spots (even though it snowed a dusting on Christmas). The reason I say this was funny is because literally the only days without a solid snowpack from early December until late March were December 23-25. Couldn't make that up lol.

 

And I just brought up February 2015 in my recent my last post! I did not realize the all time record cold extended that far east.

 

And how can I forget 2008-2009?  Another solid Winter with well above average snowfall, a long lasting deep snow pack, and yet another year where the Detroit heat island managed to get to -15°. Even though outlying temperatures are always far more impressive, I bring up the numbers from the big cities because it shows just how intense the air mass was. Not saying there were not many impressive cold snaps over the years, but again I can say that these same heat islands went about 40 years mid 20th century without once seeing a temperature as impressive as has been seen FOUR different winters from 2009 to 2019. 

We’ve had some very potent individual cold snaps in very recent winters despite the winters themselves not being that cold. Feb 2016 saw the coldest temps at BOS and ORH since January 1957...then the January 2019 cold snap saw the coldest high temp at ORH since 1994 (high of 1F)

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2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Stop up this winter...I agree 100 percent.  The glades on team side sometimes hold powder for a week.  Imagine fifty percent less traffic and the tram only dumping 25 percent of that total up top because of capacity restrictions. All of northern Vermont could really be special for locals and people staying up there. We were planning on renting out our place a bit more, but probably will just rent the holidays and a weekend here or there and just stay most of the winter.  My wife was told she would be remote “well into 2020” so it’s a lot easier.  
 

Could be epic if the winter cooperates.  That border closing is tough; The skiing part of me is looking forward to what could be, but the other part hopes it opens because jay really depends on it and I worry about the impact on the jobs and the resort.  It looked like they were starting to turn the corner from all the EB-5 bullshit and Steve Wright seemed like he was doing a good job running it and then covid changes everything.  My hope is that there are no outbreaks and shutdowns and the resorts are pleasantly surprised by demand from New England skiing the East more instead of the week long trips out west.

On a winter note, what winter patterns do you do best in your up there since upslope is the bread and butter and it’s less about synoptic.

The pandemic-related ski discussion has been informative, and indeed it’s going to be a potentially interesting season up here this year.  It’s just a small sample here in the forum, but the talk from skiers planning to focus close to home because they’re unsure of the what’s to come must be fairly prominent in the rest of the population.

I’d put the “bread and butter” analogy a bit differently in that I’d say Alberta Clipper-style storms are actually the best fit for the bread and butter role up here.  Each of those can have and upslope component, and some Great Lakes moisture infusion as well, so that make them more prodigious than they’d be in places without those enhancements.  You’ve essentially got a consistent source of moisture enhancement, and a forcing mechanism locked in place up here in the northern mountains, so it just seems to make the systems more potent and reliable.  And, you also get the ones that seem to ramp up a bit and drop a foot of fluff for the higher elevations.  The reason those systems are such a good fit for the “bread and butter” analogy is that we’ll go through long periods of the winter where we’ll essentially get them every other day.  If I look at the average number of accumulating storms we get here at our site, it’s probably 10 to 15 per winter month, and many of them are simply those bread and butter Clipper-type storms.  A notable thing about these systems is that they’re almost always bringing snow, not rain or mixed precipitation, since they’re not wound up enough to really pull in much warm air.  It’s that consistency that makes them our bread and butter for snowfall.

A winter pattern I think is productive in this area is one like we saw in 2007-2008.  With the combination of latitude and altitude up here, there’s a strong case to be made for simply “give us the moisture and the snow will come”.  The 2007-2008 season felt like that – we were just right in the moisture train.  Yeah, being right in the pipeline meant that we had some mixed precipitation on occasion, but it was typically buried under snow quite quickly as the back part or the storm hit us.

It will be fun to hear thoughts from @powderfreak on this as well.

Bread&Butter.jpg

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I remember that Ice storm well because I was driving to a Christmas party and it was very dicey. North of Detroit had freezing rain and by my house I had the old 33-34 and rain. It was one of the few times we saw liquid precipitation from early December until late March that Winter.  Funny side note, the cold rain soaked into the snow pack and it actually did end up leaving us with bare spots for Christmas. Still plenty of white, but you could see patches of grass in spots (even though it snowed a dusting on Christmas). The reason I say this was funny is because literally the only days without a solid snowpack from early December until late March were December 23-25. Couldn't make that up lol.

 

And I just brought up February 2015 in my recent my last post! I did not realize the all time record cold extended that far east.

 

And how can I forget 2008-2009?  Another solid Winter with well above average snowfall, a long lasting deep snow pack, and yet another year where the Detroit heat island managed to get to -15°. Even though outlying temperatures are always far more impressive, I bring up the numbers from the big cities because it shows just how intense the air mass was. Not saying there were not many impressive cold snaps over the years, but again I can say that these same heat islands went about 40 years mid 20th century without once seeing a temperature as impressive as has been seen FOUR different winters from 2009 to 2019. 

We had over 100 days of snow-cover in 2013-14. That ice storm solidified the snow base and we just kept adding onto it. Despite that mid Jan thaw we had, our snowpack still survived. I won't forget watching the 2014 winter classic on TV, in Ann Arbour if I'm not mistaken, and seeing all that heavy snow coming down for hours. We missed out on that storm unfortunately. 

2010-11 was another great La Niña winter. Highly unlikely this year's La Niña will peak anywhere near that year. Our area, specifically Detroit - Toronto, can do well regardless of ENSO state. 

2008-09 was just great especially coming off the heels of 07-08. I got over 30" that December alone. I was in high school during that Dec 2008 storm and I remember getting a half day because of all the snow which kick started the winter holidays haha. Jan 2009 had some impressive cold across much of the east. One of the craziest December cold snaps in recent times was in Dec 2017 around Christmas time. Although we haven't seen a wall to wall cold winter since 2014-15, we have seen some impressive cold shots as ORH noted in his previous post, i.e. Jan 2019. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

2013-14 was beyond incredible For so many reasons, including many that don't stick out when you look at the already record impressive weather stats.  Then the following Winter, when Boston was getting buried in snow in February, the Midwest and Great Lakes were experiencing one of their all time coldest months on record.  The cold in February 2015 was so intense. We had a nice deep snowpack as well, and it would have been far more impressive if the previous Winter wasn't fresh in the memory, but that month ended up 1st or 2nd coldest February on record at almost every major climate site in the region. It was competing with the longstanding February 1875. You can look up most major cities and you will see 1875 and 2015 as 1 or 2.

In the Northeast it's 1934 having the greatest competition with 2015.  Only valid NE record I've found back beyond 1875 is NYC, and Feb that year is only 7th coldest, 5.2° less cold than 2/34.  That site recorded its 3rd coldest Feb in 2015.
2013-14 was a good winter marred by a frustration January - BN temps, precip way AN, and 2nd lowest snowfall in the Farmington co-op's 128 Januarys.  That's an unusual trifecta.  However, the winter had 5 double-digit snowstorms, most in any winter here, though greater than 13.5".  Also ranks #3 for Snow Depth Days and is one of 5 winters in which pack got above 40".  Also the coldest March on record at that co-op (as was February the next year.). 

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42 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In the Northeast it's 1934 having the greatest competition with 2015.  Only valid NE record I've found back beyond 1875 is NYC, and Feb that year is only 7th coldest, 5.2° less cold than 2/34.  That site recorded its 3rd coldest Feb in 2015.
2013-14 was a good winter marred by a frustration January - BN temps, precip way AN, and 2nd lowest snowfall in the Farmington co-op's 128 Januarys.  That's an unusual trifecta.  However, the winter had 5 double-digit snowstorms, most in any winter here, though greater than 13.5".  Also ranks #3 for Snow Depth Days and is one of 5 winters in which pack got above 40".  Also the coldest March on record at that co-op (as was February the next year.). 

I went skiing up at Sunday River on March 21-23, 2014 and when we arrived at the old Evergreen Valley Inn (I made previous posts about this interesting relic) where we were staying that trip, there was about 42-45” on the ground. It was up to my hips/waist so I knew it was easily over 3 feet closing in on 4’. 

They had just gotten croaked by a 12-15” paster the day before so it looked even “deeper” than the actual depth as it often does with freshly fallen wetter snow. Very impressive.

We got another 2” on the 22nd while there and then it just got frigid....that March was exceptional for the persistence of the cold. 

 

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I went skiing up at Sunday River on March 21-23, 2014 and when we arrived at the old Evergreen Valley Inn (I made previous posts about this interesting relic) where we were staying that trip, there was about 42-45” on the ground. It was up to my hips/waist so I knew it was easily over 3 feet closing in on 4’. 

They had just gotten croaked by a 12-15” paster the day before so it looked even “deeper” than the actual depth as it often does with freshly fallen wetter snow. Very impressive.

We got another 2” on the 22nd while there and then it just got frigid....that March was exceptional for the persistence of the cold. 

 

That "paster" was forecast as 3-5" advisory snow but dumped 13.3" overnight before ending with a couple tenths RA.  Even so, the 46" pack at 7 AM only settled to 43 at my 9 PM obs.  Farmington didn't change until right at the end and got 16.9".

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve had some very potent individual cold snaps in very recent winters despite the winters themselves not being that cold. Feb 2016 saw the coldest temps at BOS and ORH since January 1957...then the January 2019 cold snap saw the coldest high temp at ORH since 1994 (high of 1F)

Oh wow, so chalk up another recent winter with potent cold.. I didn't even remember that. We must have missed the brunt of that, it was colder than average in mid February 2016 but the lowest temperature at DTW was -1゚. This really is food for thought about the future of cold snaps. Maybe more roller coaster weather is becoming the norm? Not wise for a weather person to look at a mean temperature without looking at all the details.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh wow, so chalk up another recent winter with potent cold.. I didn't even remember that. We must have missed the brunt of that, it was colder than average in mid February 2016 but the lowest temperature at DTW was -1゚. This really is food for thought about the future of cold snaps. Maybe more roller coaster weather is becoming the norm? Not wise for a weather person to look at a mean temperature without looking at all the details.

Buffalo is pretty close to Detriot, but your notion that the global warming isn't occurring locally is simply not true. We have to see a really big cooling trend to get back to where we were in the beginning of the the 19th century. With many areas setting their warmest summers of all time this year, I'd say that is unlikely to occur.

image.png.6dd169738d86acbe18bfb2c17e8600f0.png

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

We had over 100 days of snow-cover in 2013-14. That ice storm solidified the snow base and we just kept adding onto it. Despite that mid Jan thaw we had, our snowpack still survived. I won't forget watching the 2014 winter classic on TV, in Ann Arbour if I'm not mistaken, and seeing all that heavy snow coming down for hours. We missed out on that storm unfortunately. 

2010-11 was another great La Niña winter. Highly unlikely this year's La Niña will peak anywhere near that year. Our area, specifically Detroit - Toronto, can do well regardless of ENSO state. 

2008-09 was just great especially coming off the heels of 07-08. I got over 30" that December alone. I was in high school during that Dec 2008 storm and I remember getting a half day because of all the snow which kick started the winter holidays haha. Jan 2009 had some impressive cold across much of the east. One of the craziest December cold snaps in recent times was in Dec 2017 around Christmas time. Although we haven't seen a wall to wall cold winter since 2014-15, we have seen some impressive cold shots as ORH noted in his previous post, i.e. Jan 2019. 

 We lost about a foot of snowpack with that brief January thaw but we still had a good 4 to 6" left and then before you know it we pretty much spent the next 2 months with 1 to 2 feet "on the level" but it would have been more if not for the constant wind compacting and drifting it.  With the drifts and snowbank's it seemed like a lot more than that. 

 

 The  Winter classic was a lot of fun because it was snowing so nicely. Their particular storm was weird because it literally snowed for about 60 hours straight. A grinder 11" snowstorm. 

 

2010-11, there's another one, how could I forget? That was 1 of my favorite winters until 2013-14. No real extreme cold but just a lot of consistent cold and a lot of snow.

 

2007-08 was a very interesting Winter in that I can't recall any real cold but it just would not stop snowing. We kept getting thaws so never built a crazy deep pack but we still accuminated between 70 and 100" of snow in Southeast Michigan.

2002-03

2004-05

2007-08

2008-09

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

2017-18

 

 We've had an impressive stretch of harsh winters, both in the Great Lakes and northeast, so it always surprises me when people freak out when you get a ratter Winter.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

In the Northeast it's 1934 having the greatest competition with 2015.  Only valid NE record I've found back beyond 1875 is NYC, and Feb that year is only 7th coldest, 5.2° less cold than 2/34.  That site recorded its 3rd coldest Feb in 2015.
2013-14 was a good winter marred by a frustration January - BN temps, precip way AN, and 2nd lowest snowfall in the Farmington co-op's 128 Januarys.  That's an unusual trifecta.  However, the winter had 5 double-digit snowstorms, most in any winter here, though greater than 13.5".  Also ranks #3 for Snow Depth Days and is one of 5 winters in which pack got above 40".  Also the coldest March on record at that co-op (as was February the next year.). 

 I've heard a lot about 1934. I would imagine the core of the cold was settled over the Northeast. It was a very cold month at Detroit over all, although snowfall was fairly light. Then you go just a little far West to Chicago and while it was still a colder than average month it was nowhere near as cold as here. 

 

 That January 2014 stat is crazy. How does that combination even happen at such a northern location? How much snow fell there? Detroit set a record in January for 39.1" of snow.

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Buffalo is pretty close to Detriot, but your notion that the global warming isn't occurring locally is simply not true. We have to see a really big cooling trend to get back to where we were in the beginning of the the 19th century. With many areas setting their warmest summers of all time this year, I'd say that is unlikely to occur.

image.png.6dd169738d86acbe18bfb2c17e8600f0.png

I wasn't saying anything about global warming, I was talking about severe cold snaps and recent cold winters. I'm not really concerned about getting back to where we were in the early 19th century.  I'm not a fan of hot summers but they don't really bother me persay.  Increasing summer minimum temperatures and UHI do no favors to weather stats either.  Chicago just recorded their hottest summer on record, yet nearby Dubuque, IA only had their 48th hottest. Detroit had their 10th hottest summer this year  but 29 years have had more 90+ days than this year. Thats why my point is I'm not so much worried about marginal increases in mean temps, but the extreme weather thats occurred in recent years is impressive. Again, the cold snaps we saw in 2009, 2014,  2015, 2019 were unrivaled locally by any individual cold snap in the colder decades of the 1960s/1970s. then in the mild winters of the 1950s, most years had a hard time even getting below zero!

 

Winter is not warming anywhere near as much as summer. In fact Winter has hardly moved at all in the past 100 years temperature wise yet precipitation and snowfall are increasing. Below is the temperature comparison of Winter and summer from 1874 to present (period of record) and 1920 to present (100 years).

20200905_151917.jpg

20200905_151907.jpg

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25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I wasn't saying anything about global warming, I was talking about severe cold snaps and recent cold winters. I'm not really concerned about getting back to where we were in the early 19th century.  I'm not a fan of hot summers but they don't really bother me persay.  Increasing summer minimum temperatures and UHI do no favors to weather stats either.  Chicago just recorded their hottest summer on record, yet nearby Dubuque, IA only had their 48th hottest. Detroit had their 10th hottest summer this year  but 29 years have had more 90+ days than this year. Thats why my point is I'm not so much worried about marginal increases in mean temps, but the extreme weather thats occurred in recent years is impressive. Again, the cold snaps we saw in 2009, 2014,  2015, 2019 were unrivaled locally by any individual cold snap in the colder decades of the 1960s/1970s. then in the mild winters of the 1950s, most years had a hard time even getting below zero!

 

Winter is not warming anywhere near as much as summer. In fact Winter has hardly moved at all in the past 100 years temperature wise yet precipitation and snowfall are increasing. Below is the temperature comparison of Winter and summer from 1874 to present (period of record) and 1920 to present (100 years).

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We've certainly had some big cold in recent winters.  

The Jan 2019 cold shot was extremely impressive, as it even topped the Jan 2014 one around here.  I remember the 2 pm temp at ORD was -16F on 1/30/2019.  That is obscene and probably ranks in the top 3 coldest temps recorded at that hour of the day in Chicago (can't say that for sure of course). 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I went skiing up at Sunday River on March 21-23, 2014 and when we arrived at the old Evergreen Valley Inn (I made previous posts about this interesting relic) where we were staying that trip, there was about 42-45” on the ground. It was up to my hips/waist so I knew it was easily over 3 feet closing in on 4’. 

They had just gotten croaked by a 12-15” paster the day before so it looked even “deeper” than the actual depth as it often does with freshly fallen wetter snow. Very impressive.

We got another 2” on the 22nd while there and then it just got frigid....that March was exceptional for the persistence of the cold. 

 

I left the day you came up. Epic 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We've certainly had some big cold in recent winters.  

The Jan 2019 cold shot was extremely impressive, as it even topped the Jan 2014 one around here.  I remember the 2 pm temp at ORD was -16F on 1/30/2019.  That is obscene and probably ranks in the top 3 coldest temps recorded at that hour of the day in Chicago (can't say that for sure of course). 

It was just unreal. I threw a pot of boiling water in the air and it evaporated to steam. I wish I had someone else filming me though so I could have seen it from up farther angle

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Buffalo is pretty close to Detriot, but your notion that the global warming isn't occurring locally is simply not true. We have to see a really big cooling trend to get back to where we were in the beginning of the the 19th century. With many areas setting their warmest summers of all time this year, I'd say that is unlikely to occur.

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To add to what you said, a severe cold outbreak or heatwave that lasts about a week shouldn't be a measure of climate change. It's more about annual trends as per your graph. If you go back to the 40's, 50's, 60's, etc. you'd note some winter's didn't have any real impressive cold outbreaks, but they were consistently cold for DJFM. What I've noticed in recent years is that we get one impressively cold month while the others are near or above average. From a temperature vantage point Detroit, Toronto, Upstate NY and parts of NNE have a similar climatology. Winters like 1940-41, 1942-43, 1944-45, 1945-46 and 1947-48 all featured consistent cold in DJF and that's just one decade. 

Really can't say the same for the 2000s or 2010's. Like for example: 2001-02, 03-04 (aside from Jan), 2005-06, 2006-07 (aside from Feb), 2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-20 were all incredibly warm winters. From a trend perspective they outweigh any warm winter in the past. So there's been a definite warming trend in winter. Snowfall is just a byproduct of temperatures in my opinion. Even if it's 33 or 34F it can still snow. Just because the snowfall trend has been going up, locally, it doesn't mean the overall trend is "good" or "cool". 

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh wow, so chalk up another recent winter with potent cold.. I didn't even remember that. We must have missed the brunt of that, it was colder than average in mid February 2016 but the lowest temperature at DTW was -1゚. This really is food for thought about the future of cold snaps. Maybe more roller coaster weather is becoming the norm? Not wise for a weather person to look at a mean temperature without looking at all the details.

It got down to -16F at YYZ and nearly -20F in surrounding suburbs in Toronto for one night. Believe it or not, it was the coldest low temp in Toronto since Jan 94. On a side note, Jan 94 was just ridiculous. YYZ got down to -24F and surrounding suburbs got down to -30F. Feb 2015 came close but only got down to -14F. Dec 2017 and Jan 2018 were impressive as well. Not sure how cold Detroit got during that cold snap. 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We've certainly had some big cold in recent winters.  

The Jan 2019 cold shot was extremely impressive, as it even topped the Jan 2014 one around here.  I remember the 2 pm temp at ORD was -16F on 1/30/2019.  That is obscene and probably ranks in the top 3 coldest temps recorded at that hour of the day in Chicago (can't say that for sure of course). 

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Moline goes back the furthest...

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

To add to what you said, a severe cold outbreak or heatwave that lasts about a week shouldn't be a measure of climate change. It's more about annual trends as per your graph. If you go back to the 40's, 50's, 60's, etc. you'd note some winter's didn't have any real impressive cold outbreaks, but they were consistently cold for DJFM. What I've noticed in recent years is that we get one impressively cold month while the others are near or above average. From a temperature vantage point Detroit, Toronto, Upstate NY and parts of NNE have a similar climatology. Winters like 1940-41, 1942-43, 1944-45, 1945-46 and 1947-48 all featured consistent cold in DJF and that's just one decade. 

Really can't say the same for the 2000s or 2010's. Like for example: 2001-02, 03-04 (aside from Jan), 2005-06, 2006-07 (aside from Feb), 2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-20 were all incredibly warm winters. From a trend perspective they outweigh any warm winter in the past. So there's been a definite warming trend in winter. Snowfall is just a byproduct of temperatures in my opinion. Even if it's 33 or 34F it can still snow. Just because the snowfall trend has been going up, locally, it doesn't mean the overall trend is "good" or "cool". 

One thing I disagree with is that there was a ton of ups and downs in the old days too. The 1940s were pitiful for snow in this area, the worst decade on record. Just boring. There was some cold, but admittedly I had to look up a few of those winters because I didnt think they were cold. 1945-46 was a very short winter due to a very warm March (as was 1944-45 in March). But also in addition to cold, most places saw some incredibly "open winters" back in the day the likes of which we have never experienced (ie 1931-32, 1936-37, 1941-42, 1948-49, 1952-53).

 

As for temps, here are the decadal winter temps for Detroit, Buffalo, and Boston since the 1880s (ie 1880s = 1879-80 thru 1888-89). Xmacis doesnt have Toronto or else I would have done them.

 

DETROIT

1880s- 27.2

1890s- 26.9

1900s- 25.1

1910s- 25.5

1920s- 26.7

1930s- 28.1

1940s- 27.0

1950s- 28.5

1960s- 26.5

1970s- 24.6

1980s- 26.3

1990s- 28.7

2000s- 27.8

2010s- 28.2

 

BUFFALO

1880s- 25.8

1890s- 27.5

1900s- 25.7

1910s- 26.0

1920s- 26.0

1930s- 27.7

1940s- 26.1

1950s- 28.1

1960s- 25.1

1970s- 24.8

1980s- 26.9

1990s- 28.0

2000s- 27.3

2010s- 27.8

 

BOSTON

1880s- 28.9

1890s- 30.0

1900s- 29.3

1910s- 30.5

1920s- 30.9

1930s- 31.0

1940s- 29.8

1950s- 32.3

1960s- 30.1

1970s- 31.1

1980s- 31.4

1990s- 32.7

2000s- 32.1

2010s- 33.0

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