• Member Statistics

    16,051
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    elYeti
    Newest Member
    elYeti
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

Recommended Posts

Just now, powderfreak said:

That particular one had warning snow amounts in Litchfield/Berkshire/Bennington counties...but the set up was a low moving along a stalled front, those seem to be tighter because you have that strong gradient already in place.

Same thing in March 2011 when a strong low tracked over ORH and dropped 27” here in Stowe...it went along a frontal boundary.  

But yeah not many in New England were too stoked with us getting feet while it’s 56F in ORH.  That’s usually a BGM-BTV-CAR type jackpot.

9876EDE8-DDA8-46F2-B1D7-E52684EB35FC.thumb.jpeg.50b8acd9854dc4537eff8139482e35e9.jpeg

I’m sick looking at that image.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m sick looking at that image.

Yeah it’s crazy the variability in New England...that image might be my largest snowstorm this decade.

We are definitely an island up here in NW New England in the sense of the forum.  Need Dec 2003 style storms like I said, ha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That particular one had warning snow amounts in Litchfield/Berkshire/Bennington counties...but the set up was a low moving along a stalled front, those seem to be tighter because you have that strong gradient already in place.

Same thing in March 2011 when a strong low tracked over ORH and dropped 27” here in Stowe...it went along a frontal boundary.  

But yeah not many in New England were too stoked with us getting feet while it’s 56F in ORH.  That’s usually a BGM-BTV-CAR type jackpot.  Obviously for someone who’s lived in ALB area and then up to NVT, I’ve had a few really fun ones with that track.

 

Yeah you need a really tight gradient to get snow in W MA out of an ORH track. That’s like saying a track over scooters fanny is perfect for ORH...which we know it isn’t. But occasionally there will be one that is great that hugs the coast in MA (like Dec 1996 or even 12/9/05) that slams ORH to S NH. 

The tilt matters a lot. Vday 2007 had the sfc low over ACK but it jackpotted E NY and VT because the mid level centers were tilted quite a bit NW. Xmas 2005 had the sfc low over interior E MA but it jackpotted CAR to north of YUL and had mostly rain in N VT because that midlevel centers were initially flooding warm air pretty far north before tightening up over ORH to PWM...but by then it was too late to really take advantage unless you were in Canada to far N Maine. 

 

Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s crazy the variability in New England...that image might be my largest snowstorm this decade.

We are definitely an island up here in NW New England in the sense of the forum.  Need Dec 2003 style storms like I said, ha.

It's like that everywhere. In the MA forum, I used to torment the posters from central and northern VA because when they turn to sleet it means I am getting hammered with snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you need a really tight gradient to get snow in W MA out of an ORH track. That’s like saying a track over scooters fanny is perfect for ORH...which we know it isn’t. But occasionally there will be one that is great that hugs the coast in MA (like Dec 1996 or even 12/9/05) that slams ORH to S NH. 

The tilt matters a lot. Vday 2007 had the sfc low over ACK but it jackpotted E NY and VT because the mid level centers were tilted quite a bit NW. Xmas 2005 had the sfc low over interior E MA but it jackpotted CAR to north of YUL and had mostly rain in N VT because that midlevel centers were initially flooding warm air pretty far north before tightening up over ORH to PWM...but by then it was too late to really take advantage unless you were in Canada to far N Maine. 

 

Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

I didn’t realize 30+ in that one got so far north, looks like probably some mid-level high ratio band from like Rutland to Rangley but that’s a classic NW New England screwjie while SE New England has cars trapped on highways.

image.jpeg.e2822b860afbb51ecbfce545a55b4d17.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Randolph received 15" from that March 2011 storm. I'd take it. Sorry ORH. :( 

You and I will likely be rooting for very similar stuff on the whole... from NW upslope set ups to synoptic storms.  Sometimes we’ll have differences but by and large compared to the general forum, we’ll be rooting in the same outcomes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, powderfreak said:

You and I will likely be rooting for very similar stuff on the whole... from NW upslope set ups to synoptic storms.  Sometimes we’ll have differences but by and large compared to the general forum, we’ll be rooting in the same outcomes.

I can't wait. Glad summer seems to be dead. :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. 

I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now. 

 

7 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

You won't get unbiased LR forecasts from snow-lovers, no matter the pedigree. 

That has zero to do with my actual outlook. Its simply a base ENSO composite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I didn’t realize 30+ in that one got so far north, looks like probably some mid-level high ratio band from like Rutland to Rangley but that’s a classic NW New England screwjie while SE New England has cars trapped on highways.

image.jpeg.e2822b860afbb51ecbfce545a55b4d17.jpeg

Once the storm was East there were some heavy bands rotating in that area and piled up the snow, I think I got about a foot from the banding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It’s just climo unfortunately.  Everyone has their tracks.  Though I wish we could sign up for Dec 5-6 2003 all the time... 18” for Scooter and 18” up here... 8”+ for the whole forum pretty much.

If only we could do this type of widespread dump all the time:

C63207A4-AAD2-4BBC-A58D-DDB3C93267DE.thumb.jpeg.54511a6df9a031376c11951c9c9f35c4.jpeg

My tears are falling....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, the Berks and Litchfield did really well in that storm.  I look at it not NNE vs SNE, but WNE vs ENE ;).

And ENE got squat.  We were forecast for advisory level snow but by the time the cold air arrived the precip was about done - just a few flakes here.  Fitting end to a crummy snow season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It's like that everywhere. In the MA forum, I used to torment the posters from central and northern VA because when they turn to sleet it means I am getting hammered with snow.

 Yes. In the lakes forum we are close group but honestly a lot of the time what's good for much of them is not good for me,  and whats good for me is often a swing and miss for them.  There are exceptions, like "bowling ball" storms, but at the end of the day everyone routes for their own backyard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

Northern Maine got fringed by 1978, about 2".  And while they did okay with the "Mayor Lindsey" storm in early Feb 1969, the big dog in late month was mainly a whiff.  VT had huge variation that month, BTV getting 17" and St. Johnsbury 60, BTV 6" from the late month dump vs. 35" for St.J.
The March 2011 storm dumped 19" at Eustis while 40 miles SSE we had a lot of RA followed by 2" IP then enough ZR to take out power.  Bad memories - my spinal stenosis symptoms (I had no idea yet on what was going on) were getting worse.  Had a day-long forestry conference in Orono and my wife was house sitting near BGR.  Got home at 8, all was dark and the house about 45 inside with teens outside.  Usually I'm quite cold-tolerant but that night I just couldn't get warm, even under a pile of blankets and the woodstove going full blast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Wagons west?

f120.gif

f120.gif

That would be an electrical bath for all of New England probably....lol.

Though in reality, looking at that longwave ridge position out west, the whole thing would be shoved well southeast in the winter polar jet environment.

 

That's an incredible airmass for early September in the plains though....they might get some snow into western Nebraska and not just the Rockies foothills.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

Also looks like it will be -PDO and -AMO. Are there any Niña analogs which also featured those same PDO/AMO states?

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Also looks like it will be -PDO and -AMO. Are there any Niña analogs which also featured those same PDO/AMO states?

AMO is pretty staunchly positive on last update...at least on CPC. Most Ninas in the late 1960s/1970s had -PDO/-AMO. 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 did too, though the AMO was barely negative those years....doubt it had much of an influence.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, weathafella said:

September look.....what do you think?

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

 

 

 

 

 

ssta.daily.current.png

Just based upon the veneer of this product, the present Atlantic SST anom distribution has lost it's tripole.

For those less aware ... tripolar distribution of anomalies is correlated with -NAO ... The correlation is not 1::1 of course... there are seasons where the correlation pops more or less coherently - last year may be one of those where/when there yet tripolar look vs the NAO were distracting.  But, this particular product up there appears really about as uniform NOT tripolar as I can recall the Basin ever getting its state into - which is interesting as an aside, because as of spring there still was tripole evidenced.  

One would not think summer season would be conducive to wind stressing though - the primary SST pooling mechanism.

Be that as it may, it is important to understand that second "S" in the abbreviation stands for "surface"( in SST).  I've always been a bit sideways looking when SST-reliance correlates with atmospheric modes.  Because, I'm not even sure what that means in absolute sense: surface.  6 ft of buoy dipstick depth?  I'm not sure what is measured as 'surface' in the field/industry.  But my point is, beneath the "surface" there can be strata where there's like a 'thermal momentum' lagging or perhaps more indicative of the real state of the system ... masked by transient looks and so forth.  Then, a change in the mechanical pattern of sea stressing by circulation/seasonal modulation exposes a different truth.  We actually see this in the PDO quite frequently ...where instra seasonal ( or even time lengths of seasonal for that matter ) can cause interruptions in an otherwise smooth ~ 30 year periodicity of (+)(-) Pacific -Decadal -Oscillation.  The Atlantic seems also to respond faster to short duration modulating wind patterns - which in a pure ballast sense of it probably makes sense considering it's a smaller mass.    Does the class now fully realize the goal of a splitting migraine ? 

Tripolar was more prevalently as of this recent spring, but given Jerry's post, at least as far as the surface goes the season appears to have abolished. We'll have to see as autumn reigns in a new regime of sea stressing, if this new look doesn't prove superficial.  Oh..and, tripolar means there's a more obvious cool band intervening two warm bands, all three extending between the continents - 

Having said all that... I have seen more snow and cold here in NE during neutral positive NAO, since the aggrandized marketing campaign over the NAO took place in the late 1980s through the mid 1990s when it's popularity became so extreme it actually changed the genetics that scaffolds human brain neuro-physiology so profoundly that we are in fact a new species incapable of seeing anything else in reality as having a separate physics.  In fact, if the world fails to negotiate a mid-east peace treaty after 5,000 years of pathos heredity in that region of the world, goddamn that motherf'n NAO!   So with that, I think it will take decades to prove that the NAO is not what everyone thinks it is - and I've actually been hammering this point for 15 years...  yet, people still don't even understand how to use it. Which makes much of this missive kind of moot then, huh - 

What I also find interesting is that this historic super-position of solar minima curves ...that in theory superimposed makes this minimum extra super dooper minimum... should have a demonstrative PDO and AMO correlation - as the solar curve has a very convincing correlation coefficients with these oceanic teleconnectors - I think tripolar is actually the correlation with solar minimum .. this above may in fact be odd relative to that assumption.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

AMO is pretty staunchly positive on last update...at least on CPC. Most Ninas in the late 1960s/1970s had -PDO/-AMO. 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 did too, though the AMO was barely negative those years....doubt it had much of an influence.

Thank you. Another question, which ones were +QBO? And do you think the QBO state matters? 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You and I will likely be rooting for very similar stuff on the whole... from NW upslope set ups to synoptic storms.  Sometimes we’ll have differences but by and large compared to the general forum, we’ll be rooting in the same outcomes.

Spending a good deal of the winter up at jay; there’s three of us!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Spending a good deal of the winter up at jay; there’s three of us!

I’m jealous.  If the Canadian border doesn’t open, that place is going to be a once in a lifetime powder party with 50% less skiers.  I truly think the locals up there are in for something special from a skiing standpoint... I mean millions of people cut off at the border a few miles away in Quebec/Montreal and suburbs, and Americans have to drive past every other ski area to get there, and they aren’t on a multi-mtn pass.  Place could be legit empty with that snowfall...wow.  I’m jealous, if there’s one place that you could grab the most possible powder turns this winter, it’s Jay hands down... it is in most winters anyway, but close Canada border traffic and it’s like a private powder party.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Epic January incoming 

anomnight.9.2.2010.gif

Believe me that's the first thing that came to mind!  You and I went big and people laughed at us.  Who's laughing now......

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Believe me that's the first thing that came to mind!  You and I went big and people laughed at us.  Who's laughing now......

JMA on our side right now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Believe me that's the first thing that came to mind!  You and I went big and people laughed at us.  Who's laughing now......

Sign me up for  January 2011 too... wasn't the same as yours but it was more than serviceable as we seemed to at least get 8-12" in a couple of those events.

That entire winter was awesome though on the whole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sign me up for  January 2011 too... wasn't the same as yours but it was more than serviceable as we seemed to at least get 8-12" in a couple of those events.

That entire winter was awesome though on the whole.

 

Screenshot_20200904-204203_Twitter.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this