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May Discobs 2020


George BM
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^There's a tropical wave with a surface trough affecting Cuba and Florida with heavy rains now. A few models actually try to spin-up something weak (probably too weak for any tropical classification) from this. This would be especially true if the disturbance moves off the east coast of Florida, Georgia and into the Carolinas. Regardless, this would result in the high Pwats in the region by mid/late week.

#Notanexpertopinion

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5 hours ago, Rvarookie said:

Stupid ass weather. Can’t ever get more than a day or so of sun before it turns to shit

Starting to think this might be the theme of the summer and we don't see any big heat.  We're almost in June and it's been really cold and gloomy overall.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Starting to think this might be the theme of the summer and we don't see any big heat.  We're almost in June and it's been really cold and gloomy overall.

I just need to see the sun especially with all this stuff going on. It seems like even when we do get sun we have to wait until 10/11am befor things clear out. Past few sprigs haven’t felt too clean 

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Starting to think this might be the theme of the summer and we don't see any big heat.  We're almost in June and it's been really cold and gloomy overall.

I'm fine with cooler than average - summers get wayyyy too hot and muggy in these parts. Only exception would be to fuel some nice severe storms. 

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5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps mean showing a pretty moist flow aimed at us around that Atlantic high. Timing centered on Thursday.  Pwats near 1.80 inches . Maby some heavy rainers. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-pwat-0667200.png

LWX in their afternoon AFD did mention this... but stated not many members showed a heavy rain threat for Wed-Thur... also maybe a severe threat on Friday

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front pushes in from the Midwest Friday, and with
increasing warmth and humidity, probabilities are good that it
will have decent instability to work with. Something to watch
for severe potential Fri. In advance of that though, some model
members of GFS and Euro ensembles show tropical moisture now
over Florida heading into the Mid Atlantic in the Wed/Thu
timeframe. Not a lock for heavy rain with many members not
showing that, but something to watch for heavy rain potential.

 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS and GGEM show some rain Thursday as well. Haven’t seen euro.

Euro has some showers on Thursday as well,  mostly focused N-S from the bay to just west of I-95. Looks like there will be some rain associated with moist flow on the western side of the Atlantic high.

Has a round of heavier showers on Friday, and then a line of convection on Saturday with what appears to be the actual front. Pretty juicy run overall. Widespread 1-2" +.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Sterling's latest ...


The wave of low pressure to our south will move into our region late
Wednesday and into Thursday. Situ awareness ensembles are indicating
anomalous moisture with this system which suggests that moderate to
heavy rain will be possible with this low.  As PW will be upwards of
1.74 to 2 inches , there will be a threat for localized flooding
/ flash flooding on Thursday. Increasing daytime temps and moisture
during late morning to early afternoon periods on Thursday will
prime the environment to be modestly unstable. Models have the
potential for 500 to 1500 J/KG of CAPE but shear and forcing will be
lacking. Thunderstorms will be possible mainly during peak heating
in the afternoon and early evening periods but the severe threat
will be limited due to lack of shear and forcing. I can`t rule out
some isolated instances of strong thunderstorms but I expect the
main threat for Thursday to be isolated instances of flooding as
PW`s are high but low level instability remains weak with this low.
The better severe threat will be on Friday as a cold front
approaches and moves through our area.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Friday is still shaping up to be one of the most active days of the
week in terms of convective potential. In an amplified upper flow
pattern, ridges will be located over the Atlantic and Desert
Southwest, while a closed low in the deep south becomes absorbed by
a digging northern stream trough. A surface cold front ahead of the
trough will approach but likely won`t reach the area during the
daylight hours of Friday. However, there will be height falls and a
warm/humid/moist airmass in place. Thus, numerous showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop with peak heating. While some
strong storms are possible, marginal shear and questions about cloud
cover/heating could be limiting factors. Localized flooding could be
a bigger threat due to precipitable water values of 1.5-2 inches and
potential for slow storm motions. However, the lack of a low level
forcing feature and weak shear may mean the storms could tend to
pulse and propagate by means of cold pool interactions/initiation.
The threat may also be dependent on the preceding amount of rain
since some areas have been dry lately.

 

Continues to look like an interesting period upcoming.

Mount Holly's thoughts-

Quote

Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores.

Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front.

 

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Left the house in Dundalk at 830, was foggy, cloudy and a little misty but once I got to about Parkville on 695, the sun popped and it’s been sunny here in Timonium area since I got to the park here at 9am. Great day to park watch and make sure nobody breaks any rules!

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