• Member Statistics

    16,123
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    XC700
    Newest Member
    XC700
    Joined
Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS now showing  nothing. Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.

Yup. Just total trash. 

  • Weenie 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS now showing  nothing. Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.

As a homeowner in Boca Raton I would love to see the season be over but the reality is that  we are not even into October  yet  and many of these late season home brew storms develop quickly and are not foreseen by the global models. 

Bottom line: You may be right and I certainly hope that you are but it is WAY too early to take any victory laps.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would not give up on it this yet. 

The main issues preventing it  from taking off are land interaction and competing centers.

On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin.  Too soon to tell 4 days out.

Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z GFSv15 does try to develop the current wave in the ECARIB but gets it too close to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is inland too long and also gets bypassed by the trough. The second wave evolves CAG characteristics further west and breaks off into the EPAC. This is of course a single operational run solution but let's go ahead and cancel the remainder of the season. Trollololo... That being said, let's look at the 12z GFSv16 (para). It develops the first wave much quicker south of Cuba near to Jamaica. It also gains enough latitude to get caught into the southwesterlies associated with the digging trough. This turns the first potential TC, at this point a hurricane into and across the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, the para develops the second ITCZ wave out of convergence off Venezuela and then goes bananas, having a second TC bombing out in the NW Caribbean into the long range. Varying solutions but pretty much the overall theme here continues to be increased chances of TCG somewhere in the NW Caribbean. That hasn't really changed.

I should also add that this morning's ECMWF ensemble continues to show tight clusters of TCG in the NW Caribbean through the medium range as well. Does this guarantee we'll have a WCARIB hurricane? No, but there's not really anything to prove we won't. Likewise, the season isn't dead. We'll revisit that topic in about five more weeks once the next favorable CCKW has passed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS now showing  nothing. Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.

Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean. 

People love to model hug

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS-Para.  A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge.  That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay.

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh204-228.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This GFS storm is not the area that NHC is watching right now- that system, if it develops, would probably stay down by the Yucatan or Bay of Campeche. The second one originates in the southern Caribbean.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

GFS-Para.  A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge.  That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay.

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh204-228.gif

Alrighty then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure

image.thumb.png.6b6ac95fbe1f11233d7ef838b3bb92ba.png

GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure

image.thumb.png.6b6ac95fbe1f11233d7ef838b3bb92ba.png

This is the same system the NHC is watching.

image.thumb.png.4e85f3e246902634a5fca5d930db73ae.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Prospero said:

Yea, I know, fantasy models. But they keep popping up for a week and half out.

image.thumb.png.6fd154b43f57e54843ba644754e1b5ad.png

Yeah, no thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are  980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1

JXpagmD.png

 

Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance.  Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.   

v9KaBbo.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Amped said:

THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are  980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1

JXpagmD.png

 

Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance.  Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.   

v9KaBbo.png

 

 

What does the HWRF say?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.