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Tim from Springfield (IL)

March 26-28 Severe Threat

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It may be cycling as velocities are coming down somewhat, in addition to the CC drop expanding farther downrange. At least it'll miss Paragould to the east.

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Looked uncannily liked TCL 4/27/11, also in the way it formed. They were looking at a big wall cloud, then it abruptly condensed and rapidly expanded. Shows the kind of conditions that could have been in place today in IL/IA.

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10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Although things are going to fire up later than initially thought I still think a tornado outbreak is still in the cards. Option B would be later this evening these cells merge into a QLCS with embedded tornadoes which is fairly common with high shear, low CAPE events, typically in early spring.

SPC meso has the shear relaxing 15-20 KT's over the next couple hours.  I'm with you, may not be a major outbreak but it won't take much to light the candle.  The possibility of a long tracker in the PDS area is still there.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see a watch issued farther east later this evening along the warm front.  KIND has a growing concern for that possibility.

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KJBR 282205Z AUTO 26031G64KT 1 1/2SM -TSRA SQ FEW022 BKN043 OVC075 23/20 RMK AO2 PK WND 25064/2203 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0004 T02280200 $

This is the observation with the tornado passing just to the north of the airport I am assuming.

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

KJBR 282205Z AUTO 26031G64KT 1 1/2SM -TSRA SQ FEW022 BKN043 OVC075 23/20 RMK AO2 PK WND 25064/2203 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0004 T02280200 $

This is the observation with the tornado passing just to the north of the airport I am assuming.

I'm surprised there isn't a PRESFR on the observation given the very close proximity event. 

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Just now, SmokeEater said:

Still a lot of debris aloft.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah... that cc drop was gut punching and appears to still be activity NE of Jonesboro.

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New warning is not a TORR, CC appears to show most detectable debris being "old" debris falling out of the FFD.

However, couplet did ramp back up there. Would have been a good time to use the "...THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES" wording in the new warning.

*EDIT: Quickly changed to TORR warning based on spotter report.

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Just now, SmokeEater said:

MEG watching the cell near Trumann, AR closely.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

It’s little... but don’t think it will stay that way for long 

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Still a total dud south of the warm front in Iowa.  If the line doesn't pop in the next hour or so, Cedar Rapids will be in the clear.

I think our fate was sealed after that late wave of morning to afternoon storms. Then that feed of showers and clouds continued all day, at least in IL. Moisture quality seemed to be less than what was forecasted. Just goes to show you how a few variables being off can totally change an otherwise potent tornado setup. That's Jonesboro storm was insane. That tornado looked just like Tuscaloosa. Curious to see what the environment was near that storm

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2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

It’s got that violent helical motion going on seen with some other big ones in the past.

That’s a very violent tornado. Aside from the motion, the roar may give some credence to that was well. This video backs up the debris sigs

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