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Tim from Springfield (IL)

March 26-28 Severe Threat

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Would expect some pretty drastic changes to the 20Z outlook with respect to the ENH and MDT risk areas.

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Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out.

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1 minute ago, twistingtornado said:

Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out.

The LSX / STL area vertical wind profile has improved quite a bit as the low-level jet has started backing. 

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triple point

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 224 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENFIELD,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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Looking at the radar, it seems like it’s starting to unzip in central Missouri.

Seems to be the start where the possible/would be string of pearls going over the Mississippi River in an hour or 2

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19 minutes ago, twistingtornado said:

Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out.

Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that.

For posterity..

DMX.NVW.20200328.1933.g0tA

10c9ccaa9361b6da419c5a962ed96c82.png

 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA  
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

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KDVN VWP currently exhibits 84kt 0-6km shear coupled with ~400m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Assuming the wind profile is similar in SE IA south of the warm front, the atmosphere is absolutely primed for discrete supercells capable of producing numerous significant tornadoes. 

EDIT: 90/80 probs on that PDS watch.

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31 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

And even if you don't have a PDS watch you can still get violent tornadoes. Only need to go back to the memorial day tornado outbreak as evidence of that.

Or Nashville and Cookeville as much more recent examples.

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA  
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

Decent size PDS TOR watch box

ww0069_radar.gif.5da9dcdaab423513cd0972fd3f10ccb6.gif

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Instability worse than forecast, shear better than forecast. Question is which one wins.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Instability worse than forecast, shear better than forecast. Question is which one wins.

This is certainly not a typical spring low CAPE, high shear event, but I wonder what has transpired with contrasting parameters like this in the past.

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Just now, thomp2mp said:

Kind of out of our coverage area, but the cell approaching the Pittsburgh area is hookin'

And that was shown on one of the HRRR runs I saw last evening.

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Just now, thomp2mp said:

Kind of out of our coverage area, but the cell approaching the Pittsburgh area is hookin'

TOR Warning there now. 

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

DP's have actually been falling across S-SE IA and NE MO.

yes they mixed out some...but seem a little higher towards the MS river...

storms near MS river still struggling to organize

It could be that there is too much shear and not enough instability?

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO.

That'll probably change in the next couple hours. Better forcing is still lagging the dryline/PCF, evident by the CU field across E KS.

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20z gonna be late. Weeeeeee.

Meanwhile, interesting looking cell trying to take shape NW of Indy along the warm front. Getting to the time of the day where wind profiles in this area were going to start growing more favorable IIRC. 

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