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34 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

As time goes on the total % vaccinated is becoming more and more similar to the 2020 election map, pretty remarkable,  the consequences to the areas that have bought into the lies about the vaccines will probably be seen next fall and winter. I wonder if we see the per capita new infections and deaths start to look the same. 

 

It won't matter. CDC released today that 1 in 3 have contracted covid 19. Vaccinations will end up around 60-65%, putting us at over 90-95% herd immunity.

From February 2020 to March 2021, the CDC estimates 114.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19, 97.1 million had symptomatic illnesses and 5.6 million were hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-1-in-3-americans-have-been-infected-with-covid-19

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It won't matter. CDC released today that 1 in 3 have contracted covid 19. Vaccinations will end up around 60-65%, putting us at over 90-95% herd immunity.

From February 2020 to March 2021, the CDC estimates 114.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19, 97.1 million had symptomatic illnesses and 5.6 million were hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-1-in-3-americans-have-been-infected-with-covid-19

I don't think we're getting to 90-95% immunity from covid illness + vaccinations anytime this year.  There is overlap between people who had covid and are also getting the vaccine which has to be factored in.  That being said, if we can even get that combined number to 80%, it would be great.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think we're getting to 90-95% immunity from covid illness + vaccinations anytime this year.  There is overlap between people who had covid and are also getting the vaccine which has to be factored in.  That being said, if we can even get that combined number to 80%, it would be great.

Yeah I think 80% is a good target.

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36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It won't matter. CDC released today that 1 in 3 have contracted covid 19. Vaccinations will end up around 60-65%, putting us at over 90-95% herd immunity.

From February 2020 to March 2021, the CDC estimates 114.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19, 97.1 million had symptomatic illnesses and 5.6 million were hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-1-in-3-americans-have-been-infected-with-covid-19

As others noted,  there are a number of problems here.

1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 

2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection.  So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 

3. Local level of immunity will be important,  if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. 

If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction.  Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability.

 

I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine,  everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.

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3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

As others noted,  there are a number of problems here.

1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 

2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection.  So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 

3. Local level of immunity will be important,  if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. 

If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction.  Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability.

 

I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine,  everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.

Yes you can still get covid, but who cares if you don't get really sick. Vaccines and prior infections almost completely eliminate hospitalizations. Those that refuse to get vaccinated, that risk is on them. We shouldn't have to worry about them one bit. That is their choice.

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2 hours ago, mattb65 said:

As others noted,  there are a number of problems here.

1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 

2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection.  So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 

3. Local level of immunity will be important,  if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. 

If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction.  Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability.

 

I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine,  everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.

I think that the CDC has estimated in those studies is that the infected percentage of the oldest cohort is lower...which is advantageous. 65+ is 23% positive. That cohort has high vaccine uptake. The 18 to 49 cohort is 41% positive with lower vaccine uptake....so combined you might get closer to 70 to 80% immunity. 

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I’d also be all in on the idea of just letting the virus do what it may among the unvaccinated once everyone has had their chance to get a vaccine, except for the worry that continuing to spread the virus may produce variants that make the vaccine less effective.

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Saw a shopper without a mask yesterday.  I see little kids without a mask sometimes but this is the first time in a long time that I have seen an adult customer in a store without one.  It was a woman who was maybe in her 40s.  I turned around and she was right there behind me.  I don't know if she simply forgot (one time I almost walked inside before realizing I wasn't wearing one) or if it was purposeful.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Saw a shopper without a mask yesterday.  I see little kids without a mask sometimes but this is the first time in a long time that I have seen an adult customer in a store without one.  It was a woman who was maybe in her 40s.  I turned around and she was right there behind me.  I don't know if she simply forgot (one time I almost walked inside before realizing I wasn't wearing one) or if it was purposeful.

It's a lot different here in BFE, percentages are about 80-20 wearing masks in stores.

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33 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It's a lot different here in BFE, percentages are about 80-20 wearing masks in stores.

Even at many times in 2020 during the height of the pandemic it was that way in BFE. I went into a few places in my wife’s hometown in BFE, PA and was stunned at the approximately 50% of people that weren’t wearing masks.

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52 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It's a lot different here in BFE, percentages are about 80-20 wearing masks in stores.

Not surprising when you consider the political differences between our counties. 

Per capita deaths are actually a bit higher in Huntington county, despite much less people/less density.  80 deaths in a pop of about 36,500 compared to 960 deaths in a pop of about 485,000 in Lake county. 

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Saw a shopper without a mask yesterday.  I see little kids without a mask sometimes but this is the first time in a long time that I have seen an adult customer in a store without one.  It was a woman who was maybe in her 40s.  I turned around and she was right there behind me.  I don't know if she simply forgot (one time I almost walked inside before realizing I wasn't wearing one) or if it was purposeful.

Really? Honestly I’d put mask wearing at only about 50% right now at stores and even most waiters/waitresses have quit wearing them. Other than at stores and church services masks have pretty much left the South

 

It’s almost non-existent in Florida at this point with the exception of the theme parks

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8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hospitalizations are back under 36k and only about 27k cases yesterday! Things are looking much better!!!:tomato:

35k has been the sticking point for hospitalizations.  Been hard to get under that number.  Hopefully very soon.

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