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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder how much immunity is left in the original trial participants.  Some of them would've been vaccinated a year or so ago. 

What is the criteria going to be for deciding when a booster is needed?  What level of efficacy is no longer considered acceptable?  Also will be interesting to see how long this vaccine is free for all Americans.

Interesting that this information is coming from the Pfizer CEO in this respect.

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I'd be interested to see if the individuals who are so gung ho about getting everyone vaccinated so quickly after crying about the lockdowns and mask mandates for the past 1+ year show that same energy if booster shots or additional doses are required several months/years from now. 

I tend to think the individuals in question are just using this as a ruse to force a return back to their own normal lives ASAP, and not legitimate ongoing concern about the health of others around them. But that's just my opinion and the cynic in me.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Interesting that this information is coming from the Pfizer CEO in this respect.

Business is boomin. And answer is probably whenever the US government stops paying for it.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

I'd be interested to see if the individuals who are so gung ho about giving everyone vaccinated so quickly after crying about the lockdowns and mask mandates for the past 1+ year show that same energy if booster shots or additional doses are required several months/years from now. 

I tend to think the individuals in question are just using this as a rouse to force a return back to their own normal lives ASAP, and not legitimate ongoing concern about the health of others around them. But that's just my opinion

Why do you act like its a bad thing for people to be in a hurry to get their lives back to normal? The flip side of that is why are you so intent on NOT getting everyone's lives back to normal as quickly as possible? I am going to go out on a limb and say your response includes something along the lines of "I actually care about other people an nobody else does".

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2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Business is boomin. And answer is probably whenever the US government stops paying for it.

Exactly. Pfizer didn’t do all this work only to produce a vaccine that didn’t require a booster that could allow them to make a killing off of American citizens and our artificially high drug prices.

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16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Interesting that this information is coming from the Pfizer CEO in this respect.

 

10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Exactly. Pfizer didn’t do all this work only to produce a vaccine that didn’t require a booster that could allow them to make a killing off of American citizens and our artificially high drug prices.

It is recommended now that we take the Flu shot every year.

If in fact we never achieve herd immunity, a booster requirement could easily be a possibly.

Not everything is a big business conspiracy.

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7 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

It is recommended now that we take the Flu shot every year.

If in fact we never achieve herd immunity, a booster requirement could easily be a possibly.

Not everything is a big business conspiracy.

I agree with this, but let’s remember that Pfizer is a business and isn’t necessarily just producing this vaccine out of the goodness of their hearts. I would argue that it’s fairly likely that a booster is required, but from an optics perspective that information should be provided to the general public by an actual medical expert (in human medicine), not the CEO of one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world (who happens to be a DVM).

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8 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

It is recommended now that we take the Flu shot every year.

If in fact we never achieve herd immunity, a booster requirement could easily be a possibly.

Not everything is a big business conspiracy.

The flu vaccine is generally less effective than the covid vaccines though.

Let's see some data on how much the protection wanes from the covid vaccine instead of only hearing from a CEO.

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I agree with this, but let’s remember that Pfizer is a business and isn’t necessarily just producing this vaccine out of the goodness of their hearts. I would argue that it’s fairly likely that a booster is required, but from an optics perspective that information should be provided to the general public by an actual medical expert (in human medicine), not the CEO of one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world (who happens to be a DVM).

Exactly, we have no idea where we will be in the spring of 2022. 

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11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I agree with this, but let’s remember that Pfizer is a business and isn’t necessarily just producing this vaccine out of the goodness of their hearts. I would argue that it’s fairly likely that a booster is required, but from an optics perspective that information should be provided to the general public by an actual medical expert (in human medicine), not the CEO of one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world (who happens to be a DVM).

Sure, that's why I emphasized his comment was a suggestion.

That said, the medical community hasn't ruled out the possibility either and I'm quite certain the CEO of the 2nd largest pharmaceutical company in the world has frequent enough communications wth our top medical experts (that the general public is not always privy to) to not just be shooting from their hip when making these comments.

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55 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The CEO of Pfizer is now suggesting a third dose of their vaccine would be required within 12 months.

Not only that, but a booster shot would possibly be required annually.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

Should note, the same article reports David Kessler (Biden's Chief Science Officer) also said that Americans should expect to receive booster shots to protect against variants, although he did acknowledge (as we all know) there's still a lot we're learning about the virus and didn't go into further detail.

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CDC finds less than 1 percent of fully vaccinated people got COVID-19

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/548440-cdc-5800-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-documented-among-millions-who-are?fbclid=IwAR21_N3d8TElv223lvgeTrCWX1ZMr2MHp3wbe6_mxYj_AtyXyIh7g5ni6_s

1 percent of the people who contracted breakthrough infections died.

So, if you get the vaccine, that is a .00008% chance of dying from the virus if you get the vaccine. 12500 to 1

Vaccinate everyone in the country, the most number of deaths that would occur would be 26400 (assuming a population of 330 million and everyone receives still gets the virus, which is impossible but never mind)

In others words, significantly less than die in a typical flu season.

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Just now, Powerball said:

Should also note, the same article also reports David Kessler (Biden's Chief Medical Officer) also aid that Americans should expect to receive booster shots to protect against variants, although he did acknowledge (as we all know) there's still a lot we're learning about the virus and didn't go into further detail.

Ah, the optics don’t look quite as bad now that I see the updated article. I think Kessler is a more palatable source than a corporate bigwig is.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

The data for what?

This was an article where the ex-FDA chief gave his opinion on vaccination trends going forward and the prospect for acheiving herd immunity, based on his knowledge and observations.

Nearly 50% of all eligible adults have already initiated their vaccination.  Many colleges are requiring vaccinations to attend which will cover a large portion of the 18-22 group.

I understand the concern over vaccine hesitancy but the data we already have on how many people have been vaccinated and continue to be vaccinated - 3.3 million shots per day and still climbing - is really encouraging.

I think saying half of all Americans may not get it which includes all those under 16 that aren't eligible is the wrong measure to evaluate.  It should be how many of the 16+ or 18+ are getting the vaccine.  So far those numbers still look great. 

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, the optics don’t look quite as bad now that I see the updated article. I think Kessler is a more palatable source than a corporate bigwig is.

Like I said, I'm quite certain the CEO of the 2nd largest pharmaceutical company in the world has frequent enough communications wth our top medical experts (that the general public is not always privy to) to not just be shooting from their hip when making these comments.

To inmediately suspect a conspiracy comes across as paranoid and irrational (intentionally or not).

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

CDC finds less than 1 percent of fully vaccinated people got COVID-19

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/548440-cdc-5800-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-documented-among-millions-who-are?fbclid=IwAR21_N3d8TElv223lvgeTrCWX1ZMr2MHp3wbe6_mxYj_AtyXyIh7g5ni6_s

1 percent of the people who contracted breakthrough infections died.

So, if you get the vaccine, that is a .00008% chance of dying from the virus if you get the vaccine. 12500 to 1

Vaccinate everyone in the country, the most number of deaths that would occur would be 26400 (assuming a population of 330 million and everyone receives still gets the virus, which is impossible but never mind)

In others words, significantly less than die in a typical flu season.

Better throw the 2/335,000,000 people in there who would die from the vaccine just to make sure all your bases are covered in here 

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3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

I think saying half of all Americans may not get it which includes all those under 16 that aren't eligible is the wrong measure to evaluate. 

I'll stick to the measure scientists at the CDC and FDA are using to evaluate when herd immunity is achieved.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Like I said, I'm quite certain the CEO of the 2nd largest pharmaceutical company in the world has frequent enough communications wth our top medical experts (that the general public is not always privy to) to not just be shooting from their hip when making these comments.

To inmediately suspect a conspiracy comes across as paranoid and irrational (intentionally or not).

I don’t immediately suspect a conspiracy. But a lot of people will. You’ve seen from this thread itself how many people throw rationality to the wind when it comes to this vaccine. I’m not saying he isn’t knowledgeable or privy to the issues at hand, but in my opinion he shouldn’t be the communicator of them. 

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t immediately suspect a conspiracy. But a lot of people will. You’ve seen from this thread itself how many people throw rationality to the wind when it comes to this vaccine. I’m not saying he isn’t knowledgeable or privy to the issues at hand, but in my opinion he shouldn’t be the communicator of them. 

So the bolded is something President Biden will have to clear up with his staff, as he seems to think Pfizer's CEO provides at least some value as a communicator about the vaccine if he invited him to his press conference.

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Do you think an alarm bell goes off when herd immunity is reached?

All we know is the CDC has said:

1. Herd immunity will be achieved when a percentage of the *TOTAL* population is fully vaccinated.

2. That percentage is still known.

Anything beyond what the CDC has said is conjecture not based on any scientific evidence about this virus.

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Updated numbers

The United States had administered 198,317,040 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Thursday morning and distributed 255,400,665 doses, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday. Should hit 200 million doses tomorrow and 50% with 1 dose this week. 

125m age 16+ have first dose - ~47.2% (123.9m - ~46.5% yesterday)

124.7m adults have first doses - 48.3% (122.9m - 47.6% yesterday)

 

3,525,204 administered

78,498,290 fully vaccinated (23.6% total pop, 30.3% adults)

34,844,584 above 65 fully vaccinated (63.7%)

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14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'll stick to the measure scientists at the CDC and FDA are using to evaluate when herd immunity is achieved.

Have you reviewed the infection and immunization curves in Israel and the United Kingdom. Once they had over 40% of their populations with some level of immunity from vaccination,, their infection curves showed exponential decay. We are getting close to those same levels of immunity in the US even with a large segment of people not eligible to get vaccinated yet. That segment obviously doesn't tend to get bad outcomes from this virus which is important to consider.

The more the better obviously but I think there is compelling data that people will be able to resume most normal activities very soon.  I think the July 4th date proposed by Pres Biden or maybe sooner is realistic. I don't think we'll have a herd immunity level of immunization by that point in time and I don't think it will matter. A critical enough mass will be vaccinated, anyone who wants to be vaccinated  that has a significant level of risk will have had a chance to be vaccinated by that time period.

 

Edit: you said there isn't data on this,  only conjecture, that's wrong,  see paragraph 1.

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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

All we know is the CDC has said:

1. Herd immunity will be achieved when a percentage of the *TOTAL* population is fully vaccinated.

2. That percentage is still known.

Anything beyond what the CDC has said is conjecture not based on any scientific evidence about this virus.

We shouldn't ignore those who have been infected and there's a fairly wide range of estimates on that

People are not acting normally across the US. Mobility is down and people are taking precautions. There is no hard line between when herd immunity is achieved and herd immunity isn't achieved.

Young kids potentially being less susceptible to infection and less productive spreaders and non homogeneous population mixing may lower the herd immunity threshold a bit from a simple Ro calculation. 

 

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There's another article from CNBC this morning where it's reported Dr. Fauci also said Booster shots may be needed.

He goes into detail as to why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/dr-fauci-when-we-will-need-booster-shots-for-covid-vaccine-timeline.html

Quote

...Recent data suggests that Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid vaccines provide protection for at least six months, Fauci said.

Pfizer released data on April 1 showing that its mRNA vaccine is highly effective six months after the second dose.

Moderna said Tuesday that its Covid vaccine, which uses similar technology, was more than 90% effective at protecting against Covid and more than 95% effective against severe disease up to six months after the second dose.

“We know for sure it’s effective for six months and highly likely that it will be effective for considerably longer period of time,” Fauci said.

The Pfizer study only measured to the six-month mark, and more research needs to be done to determine when or how vaccine protection wanes.

“The way to get the answer is to just follow people closely enough to determine when that level of efficacy or protection diminishes, both with regard to the level of the antibodies as well as clinical data with regard to breakthrough infections,” Fauci said. (Breakthrough cases refer to when people who are vaccinated get infected.)

Ultimately, “if it turns out [to last] a year or a year and a half, we very well may need to get booster shots to keep up the level of protection,” Fauci said.

Protection could end up lasting two to three years, but the point is that boosters are still on the table as a possibility, he told Politico on April 5...

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

There's another article from CNBC this morning where it's reported Dr. Fauci also said Booster shots may be needed.

He also goes into detail as to why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/dr-fauci-when-we-will-need-booster-shots-for-covid-vaccine-timeline.html

 

 

I just feel like this will fan the flames of vaccine hesitancy, and this has already been a bad week in that regard.

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I just feel like this will fan the flames of vaccine hesitancy, and this has already been a bad week in that regard.

We can't have it both ways.

In this thread, there was at least one complaint about the government not being transparent enough with the general public about vaccine reserch.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to ensure everyone has the expectation that the currently recommended 2 doses may not be enough for protection as more research is done, so that people are prepared if that day comes. 

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Just now, Powerball said:

We can't have it both ways.

In this thread, there was at least one complaint about the government not being transparent enough with the general public about vaccine reserch.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to ensure everyone has the expectation that the first 2 doses may not be enough for protection as more research is done, so that people are prepared if that day comes. 

You’re right. Hiding the bad news from the public is never a good idea either.

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12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

My uneducated opinion but given that sars cov 2 has a proof reading mechanism and that it only goes antigenic drift and not shift unlike flu I think its really unlikely we'd need a vaccine every year. Good to prepare logistical for those possibilities though. 

Antibodies don't just disappear do they? A year from now those vaccinated will likely have partial immunity and still be able to avoid severe illness? 

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