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Coronavirus

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17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It won't matter as herd immunity is 70%. Between infections and vaccines that 20% won't matter.

The 70% number was based on COVID-19 a year ago.  The newer variants may push that number above 85%

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1 hour ago, Speedskater said:

The 70% number was based on COVID-19 a year ago.  The newer variants may push that number above 85%

Good point. I don't think the new variants are nearly as deadly or require hospitalizations nearly as much. Might be too soon to say that but from what we've seen so far a valid hypothesis. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good point. I don't think the new variants are nearly as deadly or require hospitalizations nearly as much. Might be too soon to say that but from what we've seen so far a valid hypothesis. 

I think it depends who you are talking about.  For unvaccinated people, there is not much pointing toward the variants being milder, and if anything they may be worse.

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In terms of vaccines and public health restrictions,  my opinion is that after the supply catches up to meet the demand and everyone that chooses to be vaccinated gets vaccinated, at that point there should be little if any government imposed restrictions. At that point Darwin can take over for the anti-vaxers.

At the same time I also think it's completely reasonable for companies and states to provide favorable treatment to vaccinated individuals.  For example Hawaii is discussing getting rid of mandatory quarantines or required negative covid tests for travelers arriving more than 14 days after their second covid vaccine dose.

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I've previously posted that we will likely see hospitalizations and deaths continue to plummet even if the decline in cases slows down because of the vaccine effect. There's evidence that this is already happening.  For the entire pandemic deaths in long term care facilities have made up 30-40% of the total deaths every week.  In the last few weeks this number has been declining and is down to 18% see the article and tweet below. Note that New York and Missouri were excluded from the analysis because of large undated dumps of deaths recently.  I'm not sure why Arizona was excluded. 

The number of lives that the vaccines will save is incredible. 

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47 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

 First off hope that is correct.Based on 59.5 million vaccines administered and 28 million documented covid cases would think a decent percentage of people still susceptible. The wildcard is how many undocumented mild or asymptomatic cases are there?2x,4x,5x the number of known cases? Also there's overlap between people vaccinated but also already having had covid lowering totals. Hard to gauge what the real percentage of susceptible population still exists. Also some of the recent sharp declines in new cases have weather related closures of testing sites playing a role.

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2 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

It is somewhat possible especially since America has had such a high infection rate.  That combined with vaccine rollout could do the trick. The wildcard will be the variant and how fast we can get the world vaccinated 

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The Buffalo Sabres had double digits people get infected with Covid after the NJ Devils willingly let a player on the ice play who had covid. As a result we were shut down for 2 weeks and our best Defensemen and most in shape player is really suffering from Covid. He won't be back for quite awhile...Really goes to show you no one is too in shape for covid. Hopefully he doesn't have permanent damage.

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Hospitalizations are right around where they were at the peak of the summer surge, but things feel different now.  We have made a lot of progress coming down from the peak earlier in winter.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hospitalizations are right around where they were at the peak of the summer surge, but things feel different now.  We have made a lot of progress coming down from the peak earlier in winter.

Any explanations for this precipitous drop? Would vaccines given the amt administered be having this profound an effect? Would think fairly large percentage still susceptible to infection combined with the seasonal component (still winter)favoring more infections. Yet here we are with substantial declining numbers. Most recent lockdowns didn't seem to alter most people's behavior. Lots of restaurants stayed open in defiance of orders. If anything covid fatigue has set in and more are just living their lives from what I've observed.

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Any explanations for this precipitous drop? Would vaccines given the amt administered be having this profound an effect? Would think fairly large percentage still susceptible to infection combined with the seasonal component (still winter)favoring more infections. Yet here we are with substantial declining numbers. Most recent lockdowns didn't seem to alter most people's behavior. Lots of restaurants stayed open in defiance of orders. If anything covid fatigue has set in and more are just living their lives from what I've observed.

 

 

 

My guess would be a combination of factors, because I don't think enough people have been vaccinated yet to entirely explain such a sharp drop.  So I'd say it is a combination of vaccines, high numbers of covid infections (thus yielding some temporary immunity in many individuals), getting past the holiday gatherings, and maybe just some other dynamics with the virus.  I am still expecting to see the rate of decline slow down at some point, especially with case numbers, since it's going to be a while until a lot of people can get a vaccine.   

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

My guess would be a combination of factors, because I don't think enough people have been vaccinated yet to entirely explain such a sharp drop.  So I'd say it is a combination of vaccines, high numbers of covid infections (thus yielding some temporary immunity in many individuals), getting past the holiday gatherings, and maybe just some other dynamics with the virus.  I am still expecting to see the rate of decline slow down at some point, especially with case numbers, since it's going to be a while until a lot of people can get a vaccine.   

I would agree on rate of decline being likely to slow down. Selection pressure is going to really start to favor any more transmissible variants, plus more restrictions are started to be relaxed. Been keeping an eye on Europe. France/Italy have had cases stabilize and numbers are starting to go back up in central Europe. The UK Variant is believed to be a factor in that, particular new spikes in places like Czech Republic. Am still watching Florida as a bit of a bellwhether here in the U.S. given their apparent higher percentage of the variant compared to other areas of the country.

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