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They pushed back Milwaukee Summerfest but dates set for early September this year. A good sign.

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This pretty accurate forecast is projecting cases to nadir this week and then rise through much of march/april to almost double their current level and then crash down to negligible levels from June onward. https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

If this happens, I hope we see the vaccine effect exert continued downward push on hospitalizations and deaths.

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11 hours ago, mattb65 said:

This pretty accurate forecast is projecting cases to nadir this week and then rise through much of march/april to almost double their current level and then crash down to negligible levels from June onward. https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

If this happens, I hope we see the vaccine effect exert continued downward push on hospitalizations and deaths.

I would be surprised to see cases double in the next month with the amount of people getting vaccinated and the warm weather coming. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I would be surprised to see cases double in the next month with the amount of people getting vaccinated and the warm weather coming. 

It does seem surprising, considering the trajectory we are on.  One thing to consider is that the biggest spreaders of covid (younger adults) will tend to be the last people to be able to get a vaccine, so I definitely think it's plausible to see the case decline slow down if not rise again to an extent.  We have competing factors at work so figuring out the exact trends that we'll see is a bit of a guess.

Noticed this part on that website:

  • We assume new infections will undergo a steady decrease from mid-December 2020 to March 2021. We account for the possibility of another wave of infections in late winter/early spring (March/April) as virus variants become more predominant and states relax restrictions from the fall wave. This final wave may not happen if a quick vaccine rollout can dampen the effects.
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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It does seem surprising, considering the trajectory we are on.  One thing to consider is that the biggest spreaders of covid (younger adults) will tend to be the last people to be able to get a vaccine, so I definitely think it's plausible to see the case decline slow down if not rise again to an extent.  We have competing factors at work so figuring out the exact trends that we'll see is a bit of a guess.

Noticed this part on that website:

  • We assume new infections will undergo a steady decrease from mid-December 2020 to March 2021. We account for the possibility of another wave of infections in late winter/early spring (March/April) as virus variants become more predominant and states relax restrictions from the fall wave. This final wave may not happen if a quick vaccine rollout can dampen the effects.

That was written before J&J got approved too. I just don't see it with the current trajectory. Even without vaccines last summer saw a huge reduction in cases as with most viruses they have a seasonality to them. 

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That was written before J&J got approved too. I just don't see it with the current trajectory. Even without vaccines last summer saw a huge reduction in cases as with most viruses they have a seasonality to them. 

You might be right and obviously I hope you are that we do continue to just trend lower in cases from here on out.  To me though the rate of decline even accounting for some data irregularities from presidents day and the big freeze,  the cases appear to be leveling off.

I also think there are some complexities to seasonality,  we all thought it would just rage out of control with the cold weather but in reality there was a sweet spot in the fall first in the Midwest and then spreading South over time. It's reasonable to think that maybe the transition from the coldest part of winter to early spring may be a second time where seasonality kicks in and increases spread of the virus. 

The vaccine is obviously the trump card plus the high degree of natural immunity in a lot of places. 

To me,  I think the messaging coming from the cdc director is because the data scientists are seeing some signs of a possible last spring wave until this thing is finally behind us. 

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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That was written before J&J got approved too. I just don't see it with the current trajectory. Even without vaccines last summer saw a huge reduction in cases as with most viruses they have a seasonality to them. 

It sounds like they are factoring in Johnson & Johnson based on the paragraph below.  We actually did have an increase in cases last summer (worst in southern US and in CA) after a bit of a relaxation in late spring but obviously wouldn't expect that again in summer 2021. 

  

  • Our initial model factors in the rollout of two vaccines: Pfizer and Moderna. In February, we began also factoring in the rollout of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine beginning in March. More vaccines may be approved in 2021 (e.g. AstraZeneca), but the exact timelines are still unclear. We will incorporate additional vaccines as more data becomes available.
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14 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

You might be right and obviously I hope you are that we do continue to just trend lower in cases from here on out.  To me though the rate of decline even accounting for assume data irregularities from presidents day and the big freeze,  the cases appear to be leveling off.

I also think there are some complexities to seasonality,  we all thought it would just rage out of control with the cold weather but in reality there was a sweet spot in the fall first in the Midwest and then spreading South over time. It's reasonable to think that maybe the transition from the coldest part of winter to early spring may be a second time where seasonality kicks in and increases spread of the virus. 

The vaccine is obviously the trump card plus the high degree of natural immunity in a lot of places. 

To me,  I think the messaging coming from the cdc director is because the data scientists are seeing some signs of a possible last spring wave until this thing is finally behind us. 

Even if we see a leveling off with cases, the only true metric that matters right now is hospitalizations. If we see that number level off then we can take a step back, but until then everything should begin to open up starting in May and into summer. Right now its falling by thousands a day. It has to slow down at the rate its going. 

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized

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Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

Only 48k cases yesterday. Truly an amazing decline from January 

Tuesday usually features the highest case load of the week, will be interesting to see if it went down from last week. 

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Something I was thinking about just now.  The exact percentage can be argued but we know there is a slice of people that the vaccine won't completely cover and they will go on to develop covid, at least in a milder form.  Will those people with milder symptoms who had the vaccine even bother to get tested?  I would hope so, as it would be nice for the unvaccinated around them to know.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tuesday usually features the highest case load of the week, will be interesting to see if it went down from last week. 

I thought highest cases is usually more toward the end of the week.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Something I was thinking about just now.  The exact percentage can be argued but we know there is a slice of people that the vaccine won't completely cover and they will go on to develop covid, at least in a milder form.  Will those people with milder symptoms who had the vaccine even bother to get tested?  I would hope so, as it would be nice for the unvaccinated around them to know.

I think this is true. If I have a tickle in my throat and a cough will I go get tested, most likely not. 

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tuesday has the data dump for the weekend as some states don't report. 

I just remember in the fall that the highest national case numbers tended to occur toward the end of the week, often on Friday.  I haven't followed the data that closely lately to see if something changed with which day of the week is highest.  I know Tuesday/Wednesday tends to put up the biggest death numbers.  

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I just remember in the fall that the highest national case numbers tended to occur toward the end of the week, often on Friday.  I haven't followed the data that closely lately to see if something changed with which day of the week is highest.  I know Tuesday/Wednesday tends to put up the biggest death numbers.  

That's right I was confusing deaths with cases. 

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Texas is lifting all mask mandates and fully reopening on March 10th. North Dakota, Montana and Iowa have also lifted mask orders in recent weeks.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/texas-biggest-us-state-lift-covid-19-mask-76208428

I get the eagerness to try to get back to normal life, but boy, why not keep the mask mandate another month or two at least until most of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated.  In the grand scheme of things, that's not that much longer when you are talking about mask mandates that have been in place for many months.  A lot of vulnerable have been vaccinated but there are still a lot that haven't.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I get the eagerness to try to get back to normal life, but boy, why not keep the mask mandate another month or two at least until most of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated.  In the grand scheme of things, that's not that much longer when you are talking about mask mandates that have been in place for many months.  A lot of vulnerable have been vaccinated but there are still a lot that haven't.

I agree. I was thinking around May/June to start lifting orders. 

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I get the eagerness to try to get back to normal life, but boy, why not keep the mask mandate another month or two at least until most of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated.  In the grand scheme of things, that's not that much longer when you are talking about mask mandates that have been in place for many months.  A lot of vulnerable have been vaccinated but there are still a lot that haven't.

I agree. Moving a little too fast, though I do get everyone is tired of the mask

 

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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Texas is lifting all mask mandates and fully reopening on March 10th. North Dakota, Montana and Iowa have also lifted mask orders in recent weeks.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/texas-biggest-us-state-lift-covid-19-mask-76208428

Uggh couldn't have waited one more month? Didn't they learn from last May? Well looks like we will get our fourth wave then. Although I do wonder in some ways if the winter storms a couple weeks back have affected this, make it so that its a way to jump start businesses again. Also wouldn't be surprised if it's a way to get soem favorablity back with any republicans that may have fallen out of favor after the whole debacle. 

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Texas has had a mask mandate since July, which means it was still in effect during their downturn in Sep/Oct.  This isn't even about whether someone personally agrees with a mask mandate.  If you're just going by data, it seems kind of illogical to remove it now if you didn't remove it during the fall. 

 

Screenshot_20210302-151101.thumb.png.7a956bff6fd24aef56b2e964215f8c1b.png

 

Screenshot_20210302-151115.thumb.png.5baf696c8dfc72e002ea5ee6cfceb25b.png

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My state has the highest number of cases per 100,000 people in the entire country right now. I would also state we have one of the strictest mask mandates anywhere in the country. 

Interesting.  I wonder why that is.  Is New York City keeping the numbers more elevated?

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Texas hospitalizations are below the number that they require for a mask. Nothing more or else. Everything should be hospitalizations. Total cases are irrelevant.

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