StormfanaticInd Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Hospitals just keep filling up. The U.S. government needs to pass a big stimulus so states can shut down without hurting businesses and employees Even Trump is pushing for a big stimulus now Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted November 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Appears that more of the hospitalization data got in today, with over 91k now in the US. I suspected the apparent drop yesterday was a holiday effect. The effects on testing and death reporting is obvious. Going to be some nasty data dumps during next week. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 29, 2020 Vaccines should start rolling out soon but even then you need two doses separated by at least 20 days. Talk about a logistical nightmare Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Vaccines should start rolling out soon but even then you need two doses separated by at least 20 days. Talk about a logistical nightmare Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December. Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January. I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot. There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that. Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December. Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January. I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot. There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that. Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect? Thats a good question. If I remember right you will not be protected until the second dose. Which means at best mid January before we start seeing some impact on this war against covid Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WaryWarren Posted November 29, 2020 We're still on target for 500k. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted November 29, 2020 8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Thats a good question. If I remember right you will not be protected until the second dose. Which means at best mid January before we start seeing some impact on this war against covid We have to remember the initial vaccinations will targeted for HC workers, first responders, etc. It wont be until we get significant vaccination of at risk, elderly population that vaccination will meaningfully impact numbers Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2020 Interesting that the Pfizer vaccine has already been flown into O'Hare with EUA likely still a couple weeks away lol https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?fbclid=IwAR0nDQzsVrGJ0cbhk2XBnyYJhTnFnD3NYEYKyipyVPx8zS-ItRz7wyGjoJQ& Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted November 29, 2020 Looking at trends is this general subforum area ND, WI, IA are off 20-25% off their hospital peak. They are currently 3 out of top 4 total reported cases/capita. Maybe some herd resistance going on. Don't think it was just weather. Warm spell did nothing in OH/PA or here in Mass. either. Stuff has leveled off in IL, but OH/PA mentioned above are still not on a good trend. Almost 5000 in hospital in OH and 4400 in PA. both +150 today. Elsewhere the country trends in California are really ugly. +514 hospitalized today, 8200 total (600 below July peak but could easily blow by that in a few days). A note on hospitalizations numbers. Some states only count confirmed cases in those numbers (i.e. Texas). So the holiday backlog might be suppressing hospital numbers in certain states. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cary67 Posted November 29, 2020 19 hours ago, Hoosier said: Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December. Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January. I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot. There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that. Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect? Do you somehow filter the people who have already had Covid. They have antibodies and/or memory cells in the immune system. Newer data suggests longer immunity for those perhaps over a year. Should they be put in the back of the vaccination line? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Do you somehow filter the people who have already had Covid. They have antibodies and/or memory cells in the immune system. Newer data suggests longer immunity for those perhaps over a year. Should they be put in the back of the vaccination line? I don't know. Will be interesting to see the recommendations that come out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RyanDe680 Posted November 30, 2020 Hospitalizations up 2,400 nationally today and up 9,500 over the last 7 days. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 93,238 hospitalizations now. Well on our way to 100k this week. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 When the data finally catches up we are probably going to see some ugly numbers then the Thanksgiving wave hits Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Something I was thinking about is that the surveillance testing that has been going on at colleges/universities will largely be coming to an end for a while. I know some schools have already switched to remote learning for the rest of the semester. Not sure how noticeable of an impact this will have overall, but something to keep in mind. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Hospitalizations as said earlier will be the most important thing to watch and right now the trends are not good Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2020 Midwest "might be slowing down(highly doubtful) but other are pick up fast Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nwohweather Posted November 30, 2020 I-95 was absurdly busy today. Was at aunt and uncles for Thanksgiving and weekend (we all work remotely) and traffic was averaging 45 mph due to the amount of travelers. Was almost entirely New Jersey, Virginia and Pennsylvania plates heading back. Southbound was all NY and FL drivers Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Someone in my niece's class has covid. Supposedly the last day that person was at school was the 18th. The kids in her class don't wear masks except when they are in the hallways. The class size is small and they are relatively spaced out and have plexiglass barriers. The 17th is when I was at my sister's/niece's house for a few hours. The sinus thing that I had started on the 21st but it seemed to pass just a couple days later. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 The rate of increase in hospitalizations appears to be slowing down in Indiana, although they are still generally rising slowly. Want to see more data to be absolutely certain that the slowdown isn't due to reporting issues around Thanksgiving (on that note, notice what appears to be a "fake" dip around Thanksgiving). Also, even if the slowdown is real, we have to be aware of the possibility of a more dramatic increase coming later in December as a result of Thanksgiving gatherings. Numbers reported on last 7 days: 11/24: 3279 11/25: 3363 11/26: 3384 11/27: 3287 11/28: 3381 11/29: 3392 11/30: 3401 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 ^ all that being said, Indiana set a new Monday high in cases today, narrowly beating out last Monday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wmsptwx Posted November 30, 2020 PA at 4600 plus hospitalizations and rising pretty quick. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: PA at 4600 plus hospitalizations and rising pretty quick. Same with Ohio, now over 5000 there. Michigan is also still rising, although not as quick 4300 now. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group. We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group. We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people. Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. I do wonder if that proportion of infections is the same (2x higher per 100,000 in 18-49) since October, or if that has started to shift at all. Could be that everybody is getting sick at higher rates now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 That's only from Feb-Sep. If you include Oct/Nov what are we looking at 80-100 million infections? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That's only from Feb-Sep. If you include Oct/Nov what are we looking at 80-100 million infections? Yep, I know. Could be. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites