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Chicago Storm

Coronavirus

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1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hospitals just keep filling up. The U.S. government needs to pass a big stimulus so states can shut down without hurting businesses and employees

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Even Trump is pushing for a big stimulus now

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Appears that more of the hospitalization data got in today, with over 91k now in the US.

I suspected the apparent drop yesterday was a holiday effect. The effects on testing and death reporting is obvious. Going to be some nasty data dumps during next week.

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3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Vaccines should start rolling out soon but even then you need two doses separated by at least 20 days. Talk about a logistical nightmare 

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December.  Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January.  I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot.  There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that.  Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December.  Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January.  I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot.  There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that.  Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

Thats a good question. If I remember right you will not be protected until the second dose. Which means at best mid January before we start seeing some impact on this war against covid

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8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thats a good question. If I remember right you will not be protected until the second dose. Which means at best mid January before we start seeing some impact on this war against covid

We have to remember the initial vaccinations will targeted for HC workers, first responders, etc. It wont be until we get significant vaccination of at risk, elderly population that vaccination will meaningfully impact numbers

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Looking at trends is this general subforum area ND, WI, IA are off 20-25% off their hospital peak. They are currently 3 out of top 4 total reported cases/capita. Maybe some herd resistance going on. Don't think it was just weather. Warm spell did nothing in OH/PA or here in Mass. either.

Stuff has leveled off in IL, but OH/PA mentioned above are still not on a good trend. Almost 5000 in hospital in OH and 4400 in PA. both +150 today.

Elsewhere the country trends in California are really ugly. +514 hospitalized today, 8200 total (600 below July peak but could easily blow by that in a few days).

A note on hospitalizations numbers. Some states only count confirmed cases in those numbers (i.e. Texas). So the holiday backlog might be suppressing hospital numbers in certain states.

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19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like the general consensus is that vaccinations could start in mid-December or late December.  Even in the people who get vaccinated first, they won't have good protection until mid to late January.  I'm wondering what happens if someone gets the first shot and then develops covid in the few weeks after, but prior to the second shot.  There's bound to be at least some isolated occurrences of that.  Would they be more likely to get a milder case or no effect?

Do you somehow filter the people who have already had Covid. They have antibodies and/or memory cells in the immune system. Newer data suggests longer immunity for those perhaps over a year. Should they be put in the back of the vaccination line? 

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2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Do you somehow filter the people who have already had Covid. They have antibodies and/or memory cells in the immune system. Newer data suggests longer immunity for those perhaps over a year. Should they be put in the back of the vaccination line? 

I don't know.  Will be interesting to see the recommendations that come out.

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Something I was thinking about is that the surveillance testing that has been going on at colleges/universities will largely be coming to an end for a while.  I know some schools have already switched to remote learning for the rest of the semester.  Not sure how noticeable of an impact this will have overall, but something to keep in mind.

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I-95 was absurdly busy today. Was at aunt and uncles for Thanksgiving and weekend (we all work remotely) and traffic was averaging 45 mph due to the amount of travelers. Was almost entirely New Jersey, Virginia and Pennsylvania plates heading back. Southbound was all NY and FL drivers

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Someone in my niece's class has covid.  Supposedly the last day that person was at school was the 18th.  The kids in her class don't wear masks except when they are in the hallways.  The class size is small and they are relatively spaced out and have plexiglass barriers.

The 17th is when I was at my sister's/niece's house for a few hours. The sinus thing that I had started on the 21st but it seemed to pass just a couple days later.  

 

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The rate of increase in hospitalizations appears to be slowing down in Indiana, although they are still generally rising slowly.  Want to see more data to be absolutely certain that the slowdown isn't due to reporting issues around Thanksgiving (on that note, notice what appears to be a "fake" dip around Thanksgiving).  Also, even if the slowdown is real, we have to be aware of the possibility of a more dramatic increase coming later in December as a result of Thanksgiving gatherings.

 

Numbers reported on last 7 days:

11/24:  3279

11/25:  3363

11/26:  3384

11/27:  3287

11/28:  3381

11/29:  3392

11/30:  3401

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

PA at 4600 plus hospitalizations and rising pretty quick.

Same with Ohio, now over 5000 there. Michigan is also still rising, although not as quick 4300 now.

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I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. 363374604_CDCStudy.thumb.JPG.39b1bd96c270c65656f00515c00dee0c.JPG

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

 

 

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. 363374604_CDCStudy.thumb.JPG.39b1bd96c270c65656f00515c00dee0c.JPG

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

 

 

Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group.  We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Imagine if the 18-49 infection rate was happening in the 65+ age group.  We are ripping off 1-2k deaths per day even with the 65+ year olds getting infected at much lower rates than younger people.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. That prevalence differential probably lowers the effective IFR by 1/3rd or maybe even a bit more. 

I do wonder if that proportion of infections is the same (2x higher per 100,000 in 18-49) since October, or if that has started to shift at all.  Could be that everybody is getting sick at higher rates now.

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23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I was originally a bit skeptical of the estimate of 53 million by the study by CDC scientists, but I looked further into it. It makes sense that the younger and working population has been infected at a much higher rate than the older population. So, in the first wave, SARS Cov 2 infections probably were distributed fairly evenly among the population demographics, but then the second wave was driven by mainly younger and middle-aged people. You can see many more infections in that demographics without seeing as large of an increase in mortality. This study estimates that infections in the 18-49 cohort were double those of 65+. 363374604_CDCStudy.thumb.JPG.39b1bd96c270c65656f00515c00dee0c.JPG

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

 

 

That's only from Feb-Sep. If you include Oct/Nov what are we looking at 80-100 million infections?

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