WestMichigan Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 7 hours ago, fujiwara79 said: If only 20% of the country has been infected, that's basically proof that masks and distancing work. We'd undoubtedly be at 40% at least without those measures. Why not 60% or 75%? Pure speculation at best. Give some reasoning please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Why not 60% or 75%? Pure speculation at best. Give some reasoning please. Meh. That CDC study showed 16% at the end of September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 hours ago, WestMichigan said: Why not 60% or 75%? Pure speculation at best. Give some reasoning please. It is confusing. That study stated we had 5-8X the number of infections unreported back in September. Then they thought upwards of 53 million may have been exposed based on confirmed cases of around 8 million. Now with confirmed numbers around 13.6 million and 4 million in November alone you could argue a much larger percentage of people have already had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 142 new deaths reported in Indiana. You can lose perspective in numbers so when adjusting for population, it would be like Illinois reporting about 270 deaths in a day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Interesting thread suggesting that proportion of hospitalizations to cases has been falling over the past few months suggesting stricter admission criteria as hospitals fill up. It makes sense that this would be happening in areas that are getting into a dire situation, and there are quite a few states that fall into that category. The risk with doing that of course is that if you send somebody away and then they worsen and have to come back to the hospital, it might be too late to do much for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 142 new deaths reported in Indiana. It may not necessarily be a post-Thanksgiving dump either. Or it is slight at best. Last several Tuesdays numbers: 11/3: 49 11/10: 67 11/17: 89 11/24: 103 12/1: 142 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I know California's hospitalized per capita is below many other states, but their trend is ugly. Just blew by their July peak while going up by 400-500 a day. Now over 9000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Today is going to be BAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 This is where it starts ti really get ugly folks. Just have to remember that there is a light at the end of the tunnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: 142 new deaths reported in Indiana. You can lose perspective in numbers so when adjusting for population, it would be like Illinois reporting about 270 deaths in a day. Tuesdays just suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Almost 2000 deaths already being reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just the 7 state area of PA, MI, IL, IN, OH, WI, MO has reported 1,012 deaths today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Texas with 224 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 No real surprise that the CDC panel is recommending that health care workers and nursing home residents ought to get the vaccine first. There's a school of thought that if the vaccine is as effective as claimed, maybe you could just vaccinate the nursing home employees and hold off on vaccinating nursing home residents and save those early doses for other essential workers and elderly people who live outside of nursing homes. Makes some sense, but assuming the recommendations are followed, that's not how it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Assuming there's not a big backlog that drops on a particular day this week, we could approach 3000 deaths next Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Today is one of the worst days of the pandemic so far. Just ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Assuming there's not a big backlog that drops on a particular day this week, we could approach 3000 deaths next Tuesday. We are probably going to reach that number this week. There is just too many patients in the hospitals right now and its only getting worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: We are probably going to reach that number this week. There is just too many patients in the hospitals right now and its only getting worse Yeah, guess it can't be ruled out. Wednesdays usually have huge numbers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No real surprise that the CDC panel is recommending that health care workers and nursing home residents ought to get the vaccine first. There's a school of thought that if the vaccine is as effective as claimed, maybe you could just vaccinate the nursing home employees and hold off on vaccinating nursing home residents and save those early doses for other essential workers and elderly people who live outside of nursing homes. Makes some sense, but assuming the recommendations are followed, that's not how it will go. Obviously they are trying to target the source of a large % of current mortality. I agree that the employees should be vaccinated early as well. But I guess you cannot consider allowing visitation again in the near term without the residents vaccinated. I wonder how long it will take for vaccinating to begin cutting into infections/mortality numbers. Am guessing with a focus on nursing homes you can begin to really cut into the infection numbers there by sometime in early/mid January. That would put early February for when you would be noticeably cutting into mortality. I suspect that we will be over the crest of the current infection wave by that point, so that will help accelerate the decline in numbers there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Obviously they are trying to target the source of a large % of current mortality. I agree that the employees should be vaccinated early as well. But I guess you cannot consider allowing visitation again in the near term without the residents vaccinated. I wonder how long it will take for vaccinating to begin cutting into infections/mortality numbers. Am guessing with a focus on nursing homes you can begin to really cut into the infection numbers there by sometime in early/mid January. That would put early February for when you would be noticeably cutting into mortality. I suspect that we will be over the crest of the current infection wave by that point, so that will help accelerate the decline in numbers there. The thought is that if the nursing home employees are vaccinated, and if being vaccinated means you can't trsnsmit the virus, then you just about cut off the virus from nursing homes without having to vaccinate the nursing home residents (as long as visitation isn't allowed). That being said, I'm not sure if we definitively know the answer about a vaccinated person not being able to carry covid-19 and pass it on. Is it just an assumption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 It’s really really bad at local hospital my mom works at. Literally at capacity and starting to be thinking of ideas for unit outside of hospital and or opening defunct hospital small distance away to use. It’s very bad and trending worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 About 99k now in the hospitals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Awesome. So it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/states-ranked-by-hospital-beds-per-1-000-population.html Hospital beds per capita. Would help explain why the Dakotas were not completely overwhelmed despite their very high per capita numbers. Although Wisconsin is very low on this list, lowest numbers on this list are generally western and southwestern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, dan11295 said: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/states-ranked-by-hospital-beds-per-1-000-population.html Hospital beds per capita. Would help explain why the Dakotas were not completely overwhelmed despite their very high per capita numbers. Although Wisconsin is very low on this list, lowest numbers on this list are generally western and southwestern states. I think the choke point is intensive care and not regular hospital beds. https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/05/18/icu-bed-capacity-in-all-50-us-states-compared-infographic/?sh=6218b7cd24dc Here is an ICU bed per capita ranking. From the link above there are normally ~105k ICU beds in the US. There are currently ~19k COVID patients in ICU beds. Of course hospitals have been converting beds, etc. as much as space (and staffing) allows. But it gives you a sense of the stress on the hospital system when almost 20% of your normal ICU capacity is COVID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 We have literal war zone time going on at local hospitals and nursing homes here. Really really hoping something changes because we are approaching territory of every bed being full, icus already full and attempting to expand. These aren’t the big metro hospitals, these are the rural ones just trying to get by. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Saw an AP article today that said Mercy Hospital in Springfield MO is using a mobile morgue that had not been used since the Joplin tornado back in 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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