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Was thinking about that Imperial study that came out way back when.  Remember it suggested 2+ million deaths in the US if no mitigation measures were taken at all (I think it was over a 2 year period but don't quote me).  Considering where it appears we are heading, there's little doubt, at least in my mind, that we would've approached that figure by early 2022 had we let it rip with no masking, no social distancing, no attempts to protect more vulnerable people, etc.

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From Covid Tracking:

- New cases: 224,831 - Positivity rate: 12.4% (+0.8) - In hospital: 101,276 (+609) - - In ICU: 19,858 (+416) - New deaths: 2,563

Noticed the high ratio of ICU vs overall hospital increase. Could be another indication that hospitals are restricting admissions to sicker patients?

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The drop in current hospitalizations in Indiana is good from a capacity standpoint, but the news is not as good as it seemed.  There were 436 new admissions, which is one of the highest numbers so far in the pandemic.  You get discharged in 1 of 2 ways -- you go home or you die.  In some states where the R value is hovering a hair above 1, I wonder if it has gotten to the point that the sheer numbers of people dying day after day is helping to free up some space. 

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12 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Wow, that's crazy. I wonder why it's so bad in California?

Probably COVID fatigue. Weather wise not much has changed down there. The hypocrisy of elected leaders like Gavin Newsom doesn’t help either. LA should hopefully go down fairly soon due to the new restrictions. 

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Hate to be dark but deaths lag cases by about 3 weeks. 18.5 days is the average time from diagnosis to death and then add a few days for reporting delays. If you go back 3 weeks and look at the cases that correlate to the current deaths...and apply that same % to the current cases, we are looking at possibly 5,000 deaths a day around Xmas. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to be dark but deaths lag cases by about 3 weeks. 18.5 days is the average time from diagnosis to death and then add a few days for reporting delays. If you go back 3 weeks and look at the cases that correlate to the current deaths...and apply that same % to the current cases, we are looking at possibly 5,000 deaths a day around Xmas. 

I don't know.  I feel like we'd need to see 250-275k cases per day regularly to be talking about 5k deaths per day a few weeks later.  Either way, it's a bad situation that is getting worse.

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Probably COVID fatigue. Weather wise not much has changed down there. The hypocrisy of elected leaders like Gavin Newsom doesn’t help either. LA should hopefully go down fairly soon due to the new restrictions. 

Yeah these politicians consistently prove why government is the worst. Denver and Austin’s mayor imposed new restrictions and then boarded an airplane for vacation lol.

California’s governor and the SF mayor had a big dinner get together with their families after closing bars and restaurants.
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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sounds like a good plan to me.

"Former Democratic congressman and presidential candidate John Delaney has suggested giving Americans who are willing to take a coronavirus vaccine a $1,500 stimulus check."

https://www.wane.com/news/stimulus-checks-would-a-1500-payment-make-you-more-likely-to-get-a-covid-vaccine/

I'm not sure how this would work.  People need the money ASAP and many won't have access to the vaccine for a few more months.  

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36 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Real effects from Thanksgiving should start showing up starting about now. A lot of tests from Wednesday are now starting to come back, which would be 1-2 days after many people would get symptoms (which would be 4-5 days after Thanksgiving generally).

 

Maybe very early results.  It is still taking 4-7 days to get test results back in many instances.

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