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George BM

March Banter 2020

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35 minutes ago, PDIII said:

The best thing to do to lessen that impact would be to tell people not to show up at the emergency room if they get a cold.  Realistically the worst thing that can happen is that too many people show up to the hospital asking for a test that doesnt exist.  And even you do test positive, it is not gonna change the prognosis or the treatment.. Go home, get some rest, maybe take some antibiotics so it doesnt evolve in to a bacterial infection that could actually kill you.. 

~10% of COVID-19 cases are serious enough to require ICU treatment. The US hospital system has a limited capacity to provide people with those resources so if there are too many cases at the same time, the system is overloaded and people will not be able to get the treatment they need. Social distancing measures to limit the number of cases occurring at the same time are essential to make sure we don't have that situation - essentially what is happening right now in Italy and Spain - here in the US.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Hopefully it won’t be long before someone in the tv sports industry with some pull decides to play an old ncaa tournament in its entirety as if in real time.

Hopefully one of the years my team won :) 

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Hopefully it won’t be long before someone in the tv sports industry with some pull decides to play an old ncaa tournament in its entirety as if in real time.

 Agree.  Saw a couple of listings last night on FIOS from previous tournaments.  If they play some finals from long ago, maybe we'll be able to forget who won when watching to avoid spoiling the fun.  Heck, I can't remember who one many of the tournaments in the 90's and 2000's anyway.  Was overseas most of that time - plus I'm old now and forgot what I did yesterday. 

On a separate note, the impact on advertising and lost revenue is enormous.  Was watching something last night and an advertisement for the Players Championship ran just like normal, after it's obviously already been canceled.  Was a late night program, but was still interesting to see an advertisement for a canceled event.  

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30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I watched the Caps beat the Islanders last night after being down 4-0 from last month. I was still cheering.

I might have to break out the ol'  VHS tapes for viewing :thumbsup:. Going old school baby !!

Theres still a video rental place in Hanover that rents VHS tapes :lol:. Its called Video Max . Occasionally I see @showmethesnowcoming out with a stack of em' ...( he did say he's frugal with those riches)

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

(I like both movies)

Watched Frozen 2 with the family last night.  Must have hit it within an hour of it appearing on Disney+.

Oh I’ve seen them already too. They are both very good. I’m just mad I’ll see more snow in a movie than in real life. ;)

 

 

 

emoji 

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2 hours ago, heavy_wx said:

~10% of COVID-19 cases are serious enough to require ICU treatment. The US hospital system has a limited capacity to provide people with those resources so if there are too many cases at the same time, the system is overloaded and people will not be able to get the treatment they need. Social distancing measures to limit the number of cases occurring at the same time are essential to make sure we don't have that situation - essentially what is happening right now in Italy and Spain - here in the US.

 

"Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus

"Johns Hopkins professor estimates at least 50,000 people have coronavirus in US"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487562-johns-hopkins-professor-estimates-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in

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@heavy_wx If (conservatively) 50,000 people in the US have Corona Virus (JHU) and probably more accurately a half million (read the article) and as you report ~10 of COVID-19 case are serious enough to require ICU treatment.... how are our hospitals not overwhelmed currently? 

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23 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Is there evidence that 20% of cases need hospitalization here in America?

no

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6 minutes ago, PDIII said:

@heavy_wx If (conservatively) 50,000 people in the US have Corona Virus (JHU) and probably more accurately a half million (read the article) and as you report ~10 of COVID-19 case are serious enough to require ICU treatment.... how are our hospitals not overwhelmed currently? 

As an example, NY state (as of the Governor's briefing today) has ~700 confirmed cases and 65 people currently in ICU beds. Beyond the confirmed cases, it's hard to know how many people are asymptomatic, so I take your point that the percentage could be lower when factoring in these unobserved cases. The troubling thing is that the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially with time, unless serious social distancing measures are implemented. Italy has *only* 24k cases but its health care system is overrun with COVID-19 patients in critical condition. 16 days ago, Italy had about the same number of cases NY has currently.

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33 minutes ago, PDIII said:

 

"Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus

"Johns Hopkins professor estimates at least 50,000 people have coronavirus in US"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487562-johns-hopkins-professor-estimates-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in

I've explained this a number of times. There's a 3 week period between initial infection and getting bad enough to get to the ICU. It takes a long time for this disease to take course.

 

And because the growth is an exponential function with a doubling time of about 3-4 days, infection 3 weeks ago would be a miniscule number of cases.

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But put it this way: This disease will make its presence known whether you believe the numbers that are coming or not. Every other nation tried to ignore it and it brought them to their knees. It absolutely demolishes hospital capacity.

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14 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

As an example, NY state (as of the Governor's briefing today) has ~700 confirmed cases and 65 people currently in ICU beds. Beyond the confirmed cases, it's hard to know how many people are asymptomatic, so I take your point that the percentage could be lower when factoring in these unobserved cases. The troubling thing is that the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially with time, unless serious social distancing measures are implemented. Italy has *only* 24k cases but its health care system is overrun with COVID-19 patients in critical condition. 16 days ago, Italy had about the same number of cases NY has currently.

I think a more appropriate question is how many (thousands) of people already died from the Corona Virus in this country already?  Think about it.. 

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30 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

As an example, NY state (as of the Governor's briefing today) has ~700 confirmed cases and 65 people currently in ICU beds. Beyond the confirmed cases, it's hard to know how many people are asymptomatic, so I take your point that the percentage could be lower when factoring in these unobserved cases. The troubling thing is that the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially with time, unless serious social distancing measures are implemented. Italy has *only* 24k cases but its health care system is overrun with COVID-19 patients in critical condition. 16 days ago, Italy had about the same number of cases NY has currently.

 

26 minutes ago, PDIII said:

 

"Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children under the age of five years, accounting for 18% of all deaths of children under five years old worldwide"

https://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/news_events/news/2011/pneumonia/en/

Thats about 5,000 kids dying of Pneumonia every day

 

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So a really dry sunny winter here but did manage a January like weekend with some fresh snow here overnight. 

High so far today at 11:45 am PT has been 17.

FYI: Corona has shut down schools and the ski resort here.  My wife works at the regional hospital here and they are setting up tents in the parking lot for screening.  

Be safe everyone. 

Photo from dog park this morning 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMG_1937.jpeg

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It's apples and oranges. Period. What happens with the flu and pneumonia, swine flu or whatever else is almost irrelevant to the ways most people try to connect one to the coronavirus, often in an effort to minimize the current threat. 

This is a novel virus. That means two important things:

1) There is no natural immunity--meaning it doesn't matter who you are, where you're from, or how strong your immune system is. If you're exposed to it, you can, and likely will, get it. 

2) There are no specific treatments which could boost immune response on a broad scale unless there's a vaccine or antiviral treatment developed,.That probably means there's a floor for both mortality and hospitalization rates. We're seeing that in places that are doing a good job with this, like South Korea. 

Even though ~80% of people will not need medical attention (and yes, that's the number generally after looking at countries more advanced in the progression of the pandemic) the problem with letting the virus run its course is point  #1 above. 

If it were the seasonal flu, most would have some level of immunity. Either from a flu shot or immunity from similar past strains. That reduces low likely you are to get it, i.e. transmission rates, and how well your body is able to fight it off, i.e. mortality. 

Neonatal_Vaccine.jpg

Here, it's the actual opposite. There's no immunity. Which means you're just as likely to get it as anyone else, and become a **carrier** that infects others. Then it becomes a simple math proposition. Objective fact. That's where the concern lies and that's where it becomes paramount to spread out the rate of spread to keep health care systems and economies from collapsing. Smoothing things out will almost certainly lower the mortality rate. 

We're not doing well right now. This was a few days ago. Now we're over 3,000 confirmed cases and we're easily under-counting a lot based on our testing debacle. 

VoKBM_number_of_confirmed_coronavirus_ca

There are a little over 329,000,000 people living in this country. Putting aside things like the curve, just run the numbers:

Crude Modeling of the Coronavirus

Here's what happens when you do run the numbers. For the sake of argument, let's look at a low end, middle end, and kinda high end (some projections are higher) projection based on data we have so far. Here you can see what things look like if the overall transmission rate is higher or lower, and we also see a broad .5% or 1%  mortality rate alongside 10% or 20% hospitalization and 2.5% or 5% ICU rates.

Keep in mind that this likely happens in waves but mostly in the next year, similar to other pandemics (viruses are different but big pandemic progression seems to be relatively similar with a logarithmic curve). More detailed modeling would include exponential growth and the spread visible if social distancing efforts reach a critical mass. This doesn't all happen at one time, but it happens pretty quickly

 

10% Infection Rate--32,900,000 infected

  • "Best Case"
  • 29,610,000 need no medical attention (90%, yay!)
  • 3,290,000 need hospitalization (10%)
  • 822,500 need critical services (that is 2.5% of the total infected population and 25% of those hospitalized)
  • 164,500 die (that is .5% of the total infected population and 5% of those hospitalized)

 

  • "Bad, Could Have Been Worse"
  • 26,320,000 need no medical attention (80%, thank God)
  • 6,580,000 need hospitalization (20%)
  • 1.645,000 need critical services (that is 5% of the total infected population and 25% of those hospitalized)
  • 329,000 die (that is 1% of the total infected population and 5% of those hospitalized)

This alone probably overwhelms our health care system at certain peaks. 

20% Infection Rate--65,800,000 infected

  • 59,220,000 need no medical attention (90%, yay!)
  • 6,580,000 need hospitalization (10%)
  • 1,645,000 need critical services (that is 2.5% of the total infected population and 25% of those hospitalized)
  • 329,000 die (that is .5% of the total infected population and 5% of those hospitalized)

 

  • 52,640,000 need no medical attention (80%, thank God)
  • 13,160,000 need hospitalization (20%)
  • 3.290,000 need critical services (that is 5% of the total infected population and 25% of those hospitalized)
  • 658,000 die (that is 1% of the total infected population and 5% of those hospitalized)

40% Infection Rate--131,600,000 infected

  • 118,440,000 need no medical attention (90%)
  • 13,160,000 need hospitalization (10%)
  • 3,290,000 need critical services (that is 2.5% of the total infected population and 25% of those hospitalized)
  • 658,000 die (that is .5% of the total infected population and 5% of those hospitalized)

 

  • "Catastrophic Event"
  • 105,280,000 need no medical attention (80%)
  • 26,320,000 need hospitalization (20%)
  • 6,580,000 need critical services (that is 5% of the total infected population and 25% of those hospitalized)
  • 1,316,000 die (that is 1% of the total infected population and 5% of those hospitalized)

It's easy to see why this is the greatest threat we've seen since the 1918 influenza pandemic. No, it is not existential by any means, and yes, there are ways in which we can lower these numbers, but this is very serious and will get far worse unless we 1) see a dramatic shift in how the virus is transmitted 2) a treatment is developed or 3) we take decisive action now to stem the tide.  

Thank you for coming to my second TED Talk. 

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4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Hopefully it won’t be long before someone in the tv sports industry with some pull decides to play an old ncaa tournament in its entirety as if in real time.

If they decide to show "famous" baseball highlights, with my luck (as a Cleveland native), they'll show Game 7 of both the 1997 and 2016 World Series in their entirety.  Just so I can experience the pain again.  Both times, the Indians lost in extra innings!!  I think there were like 5 Game 7s in history that went into extra innings, and Cleveland was on the short end of two of those within my lifetime!!

I'd prefer to see Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals again...in all its nail-biting entirety!! :D

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The St. Paddy Day bar scenes in NYC (and other big cities) this weekend may have a big impact on numbers in the next week or two there. 
 

This is going to be a long road and it’s going to be several weeks before some of the complacent start considering that they may have been wrong. There is still a part of me that hopes we look back on this in six months and there is a large contingency of peeps that say, “See?!? You alarmists were wrong!” But unfortunately, I think we are breezing past that point pretty quickly.

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The St. Paddy Day bar scenes in NYC (and other big cities) this weekend may have a big impact on numbers in the next week or two there. 
 
This is going to be a long road and it’s going to be several weeks before some of the complacent start considering that they may have been wrong. There is still a part of me that hopes we look back on this in six months and there is a large contingency of peeps that say, “See?!? You alarmists were wrong!” But unfortunately, I think we are breezing past that point pretty quickly.

Bars and restaurants will be closed everywhere by the end of this week. Illinois and Ohio just shut them all down starting 9pm tonight. Other states will likely follow.

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25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Bars and restaurants will be closed everywhere by the end of this week. Illinois and Ohio just shut them all down starting 9pm tonight. Other states will likely follow.

Good to see these establishments doing what is necessary for the greater good, despite the fact they are fuccking themselves.

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

@mattie g and any other FCPS parent... please click on the link below and read the new update:

https://www.fcps.edu

Well then...

Yup - got the e-mail earlier today.

FCPS has been playing catch up, but perhaps the elementary school teacher whose husband tested positive and her “assumed positive” test has forced their hand. Of course, they may have just been making decisions based on the fluidity of reports as they said they would.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Good to see these establishments doing what is necessary for the greater good, despite the fact they are fuccking themselves.

They should. I mentioned yesterday(?) that I really feel for the employees of these places, but what’s right is right. I hope we, as a country, help affected people (both medically and financially) get through this.

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One thing we have going for us is that we have seen what both action and inaction have led to in other places. We were slow to react, but it looks like we’re finally taking this seriously, so hopefully we take those lessons learned and flatten that curve as much as possible.

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Just now, mattie g said:

They should. I mentioned yesterday(?) that I really feel for the employees of these places, but what’s right is right. I hope we, as a country, help affected people (both medically and financially) get through this.

I mean, when the greedy ass sports leagues are all shutting down, that says something about how critical it is to engage in social isolation.

I just need my go to beer places to stay open another day or 2 .:yikes:

I am NOT stocked up!

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