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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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44 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Agreed. Monthly forecasting is a crap shoot. Seasonal even more. Lol at anyone guessing on next winter’s outcome on February 29th of 2020. 

Yea that would be almost as bad as using the CFS to predict an mjo phase 8. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that would be almost as bad as using the CFS to predict an mjo phase 8. 

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

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31 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

Yes the WAG I made in November was awful. By New Years I knew we were screwed for the season. I seem to remember you calling me stupid for cancelling winter around New Years but now you’re going to criticize me for not canceling it sooner?  SMH. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yes the WAG I made in November was awful. By New Years I knew we were screwed for the season. I seem to remember you calling me stupid for cancelling winter around New Years but now you’re going to criticize me for not canceling it sooner?  SMH. 

All I said is stop digging. No one knows what next winter will be like. You are the very first person to make a call on it. Good luck!!!! 

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47 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

Someone is a little cranky today eh?

psu is one of the most respected posters in our subforum and even the entire forum at-large. Nobody scores a 100% in the world of weather. You seem awfully inflammatory...

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1 minute ago, Mersky said:

All I said is stop digging. No one knows what next winter will be like. You are the very first person to make a call on it. Good luck!!!! 

My educated guess was purely probabilities based.  

Since 2000 we’ve had 7 nino years. 5/7 ninos were above avg (71%) with a mean of 25.1” and median of 18.3”. 

But currently the odds do not favor a nino next year. In the 13 non ninos since 2000 1/13 (8%) were above avg with a mean of 9” and a median of 7.5”. 

So currently if we get anything other than a nino odds say there is a 92% chance of below avg snowfall and 7.5” is the most likely statistical outcome. 

So I said 5-10”. It’s a WAG purely based on statistical probability. 

Sorry if I didn’t incorporate enough CFS MJO for you. 

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Ukmet has a strong low southeast of OC at 144.  Its general H5 look  keeps the end week storm chance alive . The ICON actually was an improvement at h5 compared to previous runs .

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I am still hoping for a late week phase.  Trying to find a four leaf clover in my grass which is already turning green.

52FE3005-2A8C-42BC-B142-5D4EF0F9E621.png

2A9A95A9-5467-4761-9440-50846C95EE9E.png

Four leaf clovers are hard to come by but with the terrible weather pattern we've had, next week  is close enough to score a coup, me thinks.

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Someone is a little cranky today eh?

psu is one of the most respected posters in our subforum and even the entire forum at-large. Nobody scores a 100% in the world of weather. You seem awfully inflammatory...

He has been a useless troll since the day he showed up. He spreads it around too. We aren't the only subforum that gets to "enjoy" his lame shtick.

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Low 40s and rain unless you head to Canaan Valley or Garrett County where accumulations of up to 6" are possible for the system according to the UMKMET through Saturday morning

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GFS still hasn't figured out that out there's going to be a storm along the east coast Thurs-Fri. Every other piece of medium range guidance has.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The late week setup screams painfully close miss to me which would be the perfect way to end this season. 

gfs_asnow_neus_49.thumb.png.876bc53cfa12c561ea7dac9da47d8039.png

This would be a better miss to end the season.

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23 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Is that a rain storm?

ULL is still to the west at hr 144 end of run so more coastal low  strengthening definitely would occur . I could easily see this a rain to heavy wet snow scenario with this run . 

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2 hours ago, Mersky said:

Your winter forecast for this winter was awful. Now you are on record for next winter already. Sometimes it’s best to stop digging 

LOL go away.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My winter forecast for next year is some cold, some warm, some snow, some rain, some ice, some sun.

Now just stand back and marvel at my forecasting skill.

Don’t forget wind. And I received no ice this year so :unsure:

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

95-96 was nina at tail end of solar min so never say it's a lock to be a bust.

I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, lol (I meant to add that I was excluding that year) Yeah but look how anomalous that is. I have trouble factoring that into what I'd expect from a nina because that happened just one time in 130+ years--so probably not a good idea to count on that. Safer to bet on what they've normally done aside from that one data point!

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

If we're talking about historical trends...there does not appear to be one that offers hope for a better season than that: the solar minimum.

I looked through BWI records and compared them with the estimated years that the minimum "bottomed out". There hasn't been a time where one of the two years surrounding the minimum didn't give us a decent (at least average) winter. And from what I can see...all but one time actually had above average snow (and the exception--the minimum of the 40s, still had a winter that logged 18 inches). So it doesn't appear that we've ever gone without the minimum giving us some kind of benefit...so we shall see.

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro says no

Has there really even been a model that says "yes" with this threat? It's all about the timing/dig of the northern stream and that won't be figured out for another 2-3 days. We all know how this will work out but for the time being I'm glad to have something interesting to keep an eye on. It's about as good as it's been all winter. 

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Thankfully it’s over. Let’s just get into meteorological spring already. I want to see some lightning, hear some thunder, and make up for the lack of fun(in my opinion) from September to Now...

while we wait, let’s take all the unused road salt and make some dinner shall we?

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