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Hoosier

2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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Maybe a little severe for IN/OH tomorrow. Mention of slight risk possibly being needed.

Quote

..OHIO VALLEY REGION  
 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD  
FRONT. PRECEDING THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  
HOWEVER, LOW 40S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHEAST IN A NARROW  
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEPENING  
(7-7.5 C/KM) MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT.  
THESE PROCESSES ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING OF THE SURFACE LAYER  
WILL RESULT IN 300-600 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STRONG DPVA AND  
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL  
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS IT ADVANCES EAST. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE  
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE  
HAIL. THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING WEAK  
INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST  
THREAT. HOWEVER, A SLGT MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES IF IT  
BEGINS TO APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY  
ANTICIPATED.

 

swody2_categorical.png

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42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through.

That report puzzles me. Viewer a mile north reported just some gusty wind. I live 15 MI NE of the airport and had maybe 40-50 mph gusts. No other reports even close to that. Weird 

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3 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

That report puzzles me. Viewer a mile north reported just some gusty wind. I live 15 MI NE of the airport and had maybe 40-50 mph gusts. No other reports even close to that. Weird 

Several damage reports down that way as well, so seems valid.

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31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Several damage reports down that way as well, so seems valid.

Some damage reports, but all rather mild or what you might expect with low end severe. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. Just seems very localized. 

Not saying it's impossible, since it was obviously recorded, but it seems to be a huge outlier 

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through.

 

3 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Some damage reports, but all rather mild. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. 

Not saying it's impossible, just perplexed since nothing report-wise seems to reflect that. 

It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. 

I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts.

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5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. 

I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts.

Quite surprising but with sustained at 35kt a severe gust isn't too surprising. I would have never guessed 78mph gust though. 

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21 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Some damage reports, but all rather mild or what you might expect with low end severe. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. Just seems very localized. 

Not saying it's impossible, since it was obviously recorded, but it seems to be a huge outlier 

 

11 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. 

I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts.

These are significant...

0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.10W   05/10/2020 ALLEN IN PUBLIC     WIRES DOWNED, TREES INTO HOUSES. PRIMARILY   EAST SIDE OF FORT WAYNE INTO NEW HAVEN.  

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FORT WAYNE 41.05N 85.14W   05/10/2020 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO     15-20 FOOT TREE DOWNED AT ARCADIA CT. AND   HOAGLAND AVE. TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING   ARCARDIA CT.  

 

 
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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

These are significant...

0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.10W   05/10/2020 ALLEN IN PUBLIC     WIRES DOWNED, TREES INTO HOUSES. PRIMARILY   EAST SIDE OF FORT WAYNE INTO NEW HAVEN.  

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S FORT WAYNE 41.05N 85.14W   05/10/2020 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO     15-20 FOOT TREE DOWNED AT ARCADIA CT. AND   HOAGLAND AVE. TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING   ARCARDIA CT.  

 


 

Whoa, yeah that definitely leads credibility to the 78mph.

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MCV coming out of the Southern Plains storms today, plus ample low level instability, could make for some fun times tomorrow. SPC has a 5% tor across C to NC IL back into KS. Morning convection could obviously kill the day, but it may also lay a boundary that further enhances low level SRH and generates better hodo shapes. Grungy/HP supercells may be the supercell mode with not ideal venting up top, but with how the low-levels are looking, definitely could be a few tors out there. I'll be chasing unless morning convection ruins the setup.

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Looks like there could be some junk lingering through late morning if not into the afternoon around here.  But there is a nice reservoir of relatively steep mid level lapse rates advecting in during the afternoon/evening so I am less concerned about the lingering junk than I otherwise would be.  Overall setup appears to have potential to evolve into a respectable damaging wind event with time. 

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50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like there could be some junk lingering through late morning if not into the afternoon around here.  But there is a nice reservoir of relatively steep mid level lapse rates advecting in during the afternoon/evening so I am less concerned about the lingering junk than I otherwise would be.  Overall setup appears to have potential to evolve into a respectable damaging wind event with time. 

The LLJ should be strong enough too tomorrow to help aid in recovery from morning convection. I've seen worse setups, that's for sure.

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Tomorrow definitely holds potential, but all hinges on tonight/tomorrow mornings activity.

SGT risk looks good for now, but could need upgrade to ENH in the morning once everything becomes clear.

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I would ideally like to see more surface backing tomorrow(to SSW or even due S) than is currently modeled if I were forecasting for tornadoes. Storm motion is also boundary parallel, but that doesn't seem like a variable that is likely to change. Lapse rates through 500mb per 18z runs are actually quite steep (all exceeding 7.0*C/km) and would support a damaging wind and potentially even a hail threat should any supercells evolve. I'll be out if it looks like any enhanced corridors of low level shear are likely to evolve. Looking pretty sloppy regardless.

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29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Has that been doing better than the HRRR and NAM3?  I haven't really used that one yet.  

Overall I’d say better.  It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade.  It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Has that been doing better than the HRRR and NAM3?  I haven't really used that one yet.  

 

54 minutes ago, madwx said:

Overall I’d say better.  It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade.  It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on 

It is definitely much better, as madwx pointed out.

Not just for our region either...It has done well in the Plains as well. A recent example was when it nailed the 5/7 event from 1+ day out.

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2 hours ago, madwx said:

Overall I’d say better.  It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade.  It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on 

 

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

It is definitely much better, as madwx pointed out.

Not just for our region either...It has done well in the Plains as well. A recent example was when it nailed the 5/7 event from 1+ day out.

 

Good to hear. :thumbsup:

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On 5/22/2020 at 10:40 AM, cyclone77 said:
Yeah if the HRRR/HRRRV4 are anywhere close to accurate there could be some nice tors tomorrow afternoon.  Very low LCLs and very nice low-level shear, combined with more than adequate instability.  Looking like a great local setup. default_thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Yea, tomorrow definitely has potential across E IA and N IL.

SPC holding at marginal is comical, but par for the course with them.

Unfortunately, I’ll still be out of town for this one.

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Definitely not needing another deluge but definitely liking the upcoming week with pop up storms and mid 80s. Such a stark contrast compared to earlier this month and finally feeling like summer B)

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