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Dr. Dews

March 2020 disc/obs

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44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ice out on Winni on Morch 27 lol. I feel like it’s been May other years

 

Search showed 12 May ice outs in 129 years, only one (5/2/2001) since 1972.  March 27 is 4th earliest, behind 2010,2012, 2016 - this last the earliest at 3/18.

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50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ice out on Winni on Morch 27 lol. I feel like it’s been May other years

 

Between 1900 and 1980 looks to have a mean ice out around Apr 18.

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21 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Search showed 12 May ice outs in 129 years, only one (5/2/2001) since 1972.  March 27 is 4th earliest, behind 2010,2012, 2016 - this last the earliest at 3/18.

Quite the string of March ice outs in the last decade....  

I feel like I remember May too but certainly not if the last May ice out was 2001.

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My God...the 12z models tomorrow across parts of IA/IL are jaw dropping scary. High risk with 30% TOR hatched coming at 1730? Maybe even 45% hail 

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My God...the 12z models tomorrow across parts of IA/IL are jaw dropping scary. High risk with 30% TOR hatched coming at 1730? Maybe even 45% hail 

Overnight convection will probably stick a fork in this threat.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Overnight convection will probably stick a fork in this threat.

yeah that's something I've been looking at. I was initially thinking that the greatest degree of overnight convection may actually be a bit farther north and east of where the greatest potential is, however, the past few runs of the HRRR seem to be a bit more aggressive with overnight convection down into IA and into IL. 

Since this does look like a later show tomorrow anyways I guess that gives some more time for atmospheric recovery...but this is a pretty insane setup. Dews in the mid-to-upper 60's under very steep lapse rates...this isn't uncommon but put these ingredients under those shear parameters...yikes.  

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20 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wouldn’t shock anyone if the first event is a miss south as the block presses then the follow up crushed NNE as it relaxes. 

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like next weeks storm will stay to the south.

 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Awesome torch today. Went for a run and got baked.

Getting baked on the deck. Tanning the nape. So quiet out here too.

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Getting baked on the deck. Tanning the nape. So quiet out here too.

Quite peaceful, yes. Wish we had a pool but I don’t want another thing that I, and only I, has to maintain. Maybe when the kids get older. 

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Awesome torch today. Went for a run and got baked.

I usually do that in the reverse order. 

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

F snow. Give me this all April. I want some peace and tranquility.

I'm done with it too, Lets just get some warmer weather so we can get outside at least at home in these trying times.

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Looks like next week gone. Kind of a crap pattern if you want warm temps. Maybe some more winter  chances after. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like next week gone. Kind of a crap pattern if you want warm temps. Maybe some more winter  chances after. 

Next week could come back if that first ULL hangs around long enough...Euro almost tried to phase that into the main shortwave approaching.

But yeah, then it basically spins near us for days and we wait for more shortwaves. Pretty much ka-ka....maybe a few nicer days mixed in if we can avoid the self-destructing sun.

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Winni didnt ice out yet. Emerson aviation who does the fly overs estimates another 5 to 10 days and they start watching it closely. 

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Looks like the NAO is betraying y'all in incremental run erosion ...  experimentally seeing what it takes to give up - 

then it'll bring it back once NCEP sees only melancholy posting tenors.  Y'allz jump on board and get excited, then everything misses -

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