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The last 5 days of March are averaging 54degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.1[47.8].       March should end near +6.3[48.8].

The first 12 days of April are averaging -2.5[47.5](42/53) with little precipitation till the 10th.      Could be cold enough for Snow by then it indicates.   

50* here at 7am.       60* by Noon.      61* at 1pm         62* at 2pm.        66* at 3pm.       68* by 5pm.         64* at 6am.      59* by 8pm.

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

trending less negative...now averaging 1 to 1.5 SD below normal which is not a strong -NAO

Nao is still going negative.  It was a matter of time.

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

trending less negative...now averaging 1 to 1.5 SD below normal which is not a strong -NAO

Shocking, another advertised -NAO/-AO getting weaker as we draw closer in time. Next week looks like another total non event. The beat goes on

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High temperatures usually beat guidance on these dry and sunny downslope flow days.

Newark Liberty FAIR      68  26  20 NW12  
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Temperatures soared into the 60s across the region today. Overall, March remains on track to end with generally warmer than normal temperatures.

The first week of April will likely be cooler than normal. However, the core of the cold will likely be focused on the central United States and the cold likely won't be sufficient to produce a freeze in New York City.

In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included:

Asheville, NC: 85° (old record: 80°, 1907); Athens, GA: 88° (old record: 87°, 1921); Charleston, SC: 87° (old record: 85°, 1949); Columbia, SC: 88° (tied record set in 1994); Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 89°, 1929 and 1991);  New Orleans: 87° (old record: 85°, 2011); Savannah: 87° (old record: 86°, 1994 and 2011); and, Wilmington, NC: 87° (old record: 85°, 2007)

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -18.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.759.

Recent days had seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

On March 26, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.712 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.905.

During the 1981-2019 period, there were two distinct clusters of April outcomes following the MJO's being in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 3 or more consecutive days during the March 20-31 period as has been the case this year. One cluster (1981, 2002, and 2010) featured warmth in the East. The other cluster (1992 and 1996) featured a cool anomaly in the East and a warm anomaly in the West.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 98% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

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The last 4 days of March are averaging 55degs., or 8degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.4[48.2]      March should end at  +6.6[49.1]----4th. Place.

The first 13 days of April are averaging about  +0.5[50.5]{44/57).

53* here at 7am.     52* for most of the AM with drizzle,  51* by Noon.       52* and heavy rain at 7pm.

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Morning thoughts...

1. The region is in line for a moderate rainstorm from late morning into mid-day tomorrow. Cities such as Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia should pick up 0.50" - 1.00" rain. Boston will likely see 0.25"-0.75".

2. Following the storm, temperatures will rebound.

3. The first week of April looks to be cooler than normal, but not exceptionally cool.

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19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures soared into the 60s across the region today. Overall, March remains on track to end with generally warmer than normal temperatures.

The first week of April will likely be cooler than normal. However, the core of the cold will likely be focused on the central United States and the cold likely won't be sufficient to produce a freeze in New York City.

In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included:

Asheville, NC: 85° (old record: 80°, 1907); Athens, GA: 88° (old record: 87°, 1921); Charleston, SC: 87° (old record: 85°, 1949); Columbia, SC: 88° (tied record set in 1994); Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 89°, 1929 and 1991);  New Orleans: 87° (old record: 85°, 2011); Savannah: 87° (old record: 86°, 1994 and 2011); and, Wilmington, NC: 87° (old record: 85°, 2007)

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -18.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.759.

Recent days had seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

On March 26, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.712 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.905.

During the 1981-2019 period, there were two distinct clusters of April outcomes following the MJO's being in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 3 or more consecutive days during the March 20-31 period as has been the case this year. One cluster (1981, 2002, and 2010) featured warmth in the East. The other cluster (1992 and 1996) featured a cool anomaly in the East and a warm anomaly in the West.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 98% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Don, I hope I’m wrong but I think there is growing evidence for a scorching hot later spring, summer and fall in our area...developing (possibly significant) La Niña, negative PDO, continued tendency for strong SE ridging/WAR, way above normal SSTs along and off the east coast....

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don, I hope I’m wrong but I think there is growing evidence for a scorching hot later spring, summer and fall in our area...developing (possibly significant) La Niña, negative PDO, continued tendency for strong SE ridging/WAR, way above normal SSTs along and off the east coast....

I think such a summer is a real possibility.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Don, I hope I’m wrong but I think there is growing evidence for a scorching hot later spring, summer and fall in our area...developing (possibly significant) La Niña, negative PDO, continued tendency for strong SE ridging/WAR, way above normal SSTs along and off the east coast....

Can you put this into context?  Approximately how many degrees above normal are you thinking?  3-5? Higher minimums?   High humidity?

Just want to be prepared mentally

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think such a summer is a real possibility.

Our weather seems to be akin to politics; with the extremes holding sway while the middle ground remains absent or  invisible. As always ...

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Temperatures held mainly in the 40s this afternoon. Nevertheless, March remains on track to end with generally warmer than normal temperatures.

The first week of April will likely be cooler than normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City was 49.3° and for Philadelphia it was 50.5°. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°.

The core of the cold will likely be focused on the central United States. The cold likely won't be sufficient to produce a freeze in New York City.

In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included:

Athens, GA: 88° (old record: 85°, 1921 and 2007); Beckley, WV: 85° (old record: 81°, 1989); Charleston, WV: 87° (tied record set in 1945); Crestview, FL: 87° (old record: 2007, 2009, and 2017); Jacksonville: 94° (old record: 89°, 1994 and 2009) ***New March Record***; New Bern, NC: 91° (old record: 85°, 1939);  New Orleans: 88° (old record: 84°, 1972); Orlando: 93° (old record: 92°, 1923 and 1994); Pensacola: 84° (old record: 83°, 2009); Savannah: 90° (old record: 89°, 1907); and, Tampa: 88° (tied record set in 1989)

New Orleans is on track to record a monthly average temperature near 72.7°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012.

It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

It is also possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -15.61 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.043.

On March 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.789 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.710.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

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4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Hopefully it will put a quell on the COVID-19 pandemic even if only for 3-4 months.

I agree. The sooner this pandemic is stifled, preferably ended, the better.

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

ewr .24," underwhelming rain event so far

Quite substantial down here. Looks like the "action" was forced south of my favorite poster.

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Was looking like a very wet 10 days after last Mondays storm but then Wednesdays storm stayed south of us, this weekend under performed and this coming midweek storm disappeared. 0.34" here so far.

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The last 3 days of March are averaging 52degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.3[48.3].     March should end near  +6.2[48.7].

The first 14 days of April are averaging -1.0[50](44/56).

47* here at 7am, Rain, Fog--2miles.          50* at 2pm.

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