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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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Pretty substantial jump north with QPF on Euro. It's snow maps don't make much sense looking at the upper thermals though. It's trying to show an all rain event for most of the area except WNC. And a changeover in the latter half for ENC. 

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[mention=11426]PackGrad05[/mention] Instead of trying to embed it just hit "Copy link to tweet." Then paste it in the comment and hit enter and it will automatically pop up. 

 

 

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Wow said:

Here's a loop of that HRRRX output

iMr56Dm.gif

The coastal forming very close to Jacksonville FL. Kinda makes sense.

Since there is a weak wave of Lp near La and warm front draped across northern FL, Southern GA, Al.

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5 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

Would you mind posting the prior run for comparison?

12z Euro 24 hour precip. Big shift for sure.

image.thumb.png.7e54eda401a2f69287775e4273b3b1e7.png

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22 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

What exact trends have you seen besides QPF and SLP fluctuations? 

Besides almost every model shifting north today? The isothermal column from start to finish? 

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I always lose sleep when there's storms to track.. how I wish the Euro came out an hour earlier.. I hope to see less of a downsloping signature on future runs.. Right now my area is in a definite precip minimum 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

I always lose sleep when there's storms to track.. how I wish the Euro came out an hour earlier.. I hope to see less of a downsloping signature on future runs.. Right now my area is in a definite precip minimum 

No reason to lose sleep. Just wake and read.

 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Besides almost every model shifting north today? The isothermal column from start to finish? 

What's shifting Noth? SLP, QPF, etc.? QPF changes from run to run and will not be the exact same at every model run. The area of the low is in the right exit region of the jet steak which is the area of descent. Also, the zonal does not aid to deepen the low and the trough is tilted positive. ECMWF and GFS show similar results at H5. 

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5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

No reason to lose sleep. Just wake and read.

 

Well that's the problem. I need to see the Euro to sleep! Need that information overload!

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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

What's shifting Noth? SLP, QPF, etc.? QPF changes from run to run and will not be the exact same at every model run. The area of the low is in the right exit region of the jet steak which is the area of descent. Also, the zonal does not aid to deepen the low and the trough is tilted positive. ECMWF and GFS show similar results at H5. 

If you go back and read the last few pages, you will have your answer  ;)   

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Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

If you go back and read the last few pages, you will have your answer  ;)   

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

So the QPF is trending up due to a wider moisture field, is not a trend? Didn’t you get banned in the Dorian thread?

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13 minutes ago, griteater said:

This storm is just taylor made for ECU Pirate country in Greenville. Perfect track and dynamics will be increasing the farther east you go as the storm matures

 

Yeah l got my fingers crossed this pans out......my average on the NAM the last 4 runs is around 10-15"....

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Just now, FatherNature said:

So the QPF is trending up due to a wider moisture field, is not a trend? Didn’t you get banned in the Dorian thread?

It's about the H5 and Jet Steam, that's what matters. 

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

So you didn't pay any attention to the soundings that were posted? Or re quoted to ask questions? Especially the last NAM sounding posted showing 12 hrs of snow falling at about an inch an hour.  I asked you to read, not skim. People having a difference of opinion, doesn't mean they are bashing. If you would like to discuss something other than the title of this thread, please take it to banter. 

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

I think we are talking about the NAM and we all know the NAM's tendency to over amplify QPF which is well documented in studies. The low is in the Right Exit region of the Jet and the Trough is tilted positive which inhibits dramatic deepening. It's still going to be a fun storm for you guys. Any snow is a win! 

NAM nailed last weekends snow and has stuck to its gun each run on this storm. Wouldn't be going against it right now. Especially with all the other models trending that was as well

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The QPF of the EURO bumped up due to a closer development of the low near the coast.  However, the snow is still anemic because it delays the arrival of the cold air, due to the poor placement of the high.  

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Just now, ST21 said:

NAM nailed last weekends snow and has stuck to its gun each run on this storm. Wouldn't be going against it right now. Especially with all the other models trending that was as well

You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate. 

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate. 

It's a slider.....This is the last time I will be this nice. Read more and post less. 

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