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Feb 12-13 Snowstorm


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don't disagree with the sharp gradient on the NW edge;"LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LESS   
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COULD YIELD AFOREMENTIONED SHARPER   
CUT-OFF IN PRECIP SHIELD.," as LOT alludes too. But fairly solid 3-5" totals thorugh a good chunk of the metro. Ratio's should help. Areas south and east may get the bonus qpf, but with lower ratios. 
 
EQfhJyCWoAA-Vhv.thumb.jpeg.d13cb9ad18ce37b258a31fcb1d220b09.jpeg


Just beautiful. To be fair I’m moving to Charleston in a month so I’m owed a solid snowstorm haha
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Just wait til the 12z runs, they'll change again. With how unstable modeling has been all season, it might help more than usual this close in to have the addition of RAOB data. Seasonal trends could certainly rear their ugly head again with this, which is why I mentioned the sharp northwest edge uncertainty in AFD and in our graphic. But I wouldn't put too much stock yet in the 06z guidance until we see the entire 12z suite.

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Just wait til the 12z runs, they'll change again. With how unstable modeling has been all season, it might help more than usual this close in to have the addition of RAOB data. Seasonal trends could certainly rear their ugly head again with this, which is why I mentioned the sharp northwest edge uncertainty in AFD and in our graphic. But I wouldn't put too much stock yet in the 06z guidance until we see the entire 12z suite.

 

 

 

 

Yep, still plenty of time for this to continue to trend unfavorably... 

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4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yep, still plenty of time for this to continue to trend unfavorably... 

Here is an optimistic take; were due for a decent spread the wealth system that covers a large area with colder winter temperatures. If it falters, as has been the case in recent times, I avoid the crap all over my shoes and garage area, and can hopefully look forward to an early spring. Even today, the longer days provide harbinger of good times ahead. Heck, spring training begins this week.

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14 minutes ago, Baum said:

Here is an optimistic take; were due for a decent spread the wealth system that covers a large area with colder winter temperatures. If it falters, as has been the case in recent times, I avoid the crap all over my shoes and garage area, and can hopefully look forward to an early spring. Even today, the longer days provide harbinger of good times ahead. Heck, spring training begins this week.

255710-screenshots-20191119185511-1.jpg

 

 

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17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

as we watch prospects for a phased noteworthy storm follow the season trends to duster city, maybe we can salvage the transient weenie death band for some brief +sn action thursday morning, guidance really hinting at an odd band moving down the lake like a squall line

Euro shitting the bed as well. S and drier. 

Seasonal trends WILL NOT BE DENIED

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19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

as we watch prospects for a phased noteworthy storm follow the season trends to duster city, maybe we can salvage the transient weenie death band for some brief +sn action thursday morning, guidance really hinting at an odd band moving down the lake like a squall line

It's along the Arctic front.

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I do have some concern with the main llj focus being well south and possibly limiting precip amounts a bit up into this area.  That being said, a blend of the op/ensemble runs would still suggest 4-5" to be attainable around here when factoring in improving ratios over time.  The 12z Euro was a disappointing run and while not outright dismissing, would be easier to buy into the worst case scenario if temps were a big concern and duration was short.  

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