Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 Preliminary call for Toronto 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5.0" call MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 don't disagree with the sharp gradient on the NW edge;"LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LESS FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COULD YIELD AFOREMENTIONED SHARPER CUT-OFF IN PRECIP SHIELD.," as LOT alludes too. But fairly solid 3-5" totals thorugh a good chunk of the metro. Ratio's should help. Areas south and east may get the bonus qpf, but with lower ratios. Just beautiful. To be fair I’m moving to Charleston in a month so I’m owed a solid snowstorm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just wait til the 12z runs, they'll change again. With how unstable modeling has been all season, it might help more than usual this close in to have the addition of RAOB data. Seasonal trends could certainly rear their ugly head again with this, which is why I mentioned the sharp northwest edge uncertainty in AFD and in our graphic. But I wouldn't put too much stock yet in the 06z guidance until we see the entire 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Just beautiful. To be fair I’m moving to Charleston in a month so I’m owed a solid snowstorm haha SC? Why the move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Just wait til the 12z runs, they'll change again. With how unstable modeling has been all season, it might help more than usual this close in to have the addition of RAOB data. Seasonal trends could certainly rear their ugly head again with this, which is why I mentioned the sharp northwest edge uncertainty in AFD and in our graphic. But I wouldn't put too much stock yet in the 06z guidance until we see the entire 12z suite. Yep, still plenty of time for this to continue to trend unfavorably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep, still plenty of time for this to continue to trend unfavorably... Here is an optimistic take; were due for a decent spread the wealth system that covers a large area with colder winter temperatures. If it falters, as has been the case in recent times, I avoid the crap all over my shoes and garage area, and can hopefully look forward to an early spring. Even today, the longer days provide harbinger of good times ahead. Heck, spring training begins this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Just beautiful. To be fair I’m moving to Charleston in a month so I’m owed a solid snowstorm haha SC or WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, Baum said: Here is an optimistic take; were due for a decent spread the wealth system that covers a large area with colder winter temperatures. If it falters, as has been the case in recent times, I avoid the crap all over my shoes and garage area, and can hopefully look forward to an early spring. Even today, the longer days provide harbinger of good times ahead. Heck, spring training begins this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I don't do RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, Baum said: I don't do RAP. hrrr says we start as rain as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 hrrr says we start as rain as well It always does that.Not gonna see a drop of rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 NAM and 3km with their snowiest runs yet around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: NAM and 3km with their snowiest runs yet around here. . If only those were the runs for 12Z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 54 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It always does that. Not gonna see a drop of rain. . That warm bias has gotten annoying. Happens time after time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z GFS with a slight trend downward in precip/snowfall amounts. It looks like the initial WAA snow will miss us in Wisconsin so we'll have to rely on the wrap around deformation snow as the northern stream wave phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 That warm bias has gotten annoying. Happens time after time after time.Hopefully it’s corrected in the upgrade coming this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Hopefully it’s corrected in the upgrade coming this year. . upgraded like the GFS was upgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 as we watch prospects for a phased noteworthy storm follow the season trends to duster city, maybe we can salvage the transient weenie death band for some brief +sn action thursday morning, guidance really hinting at an odd band moving down the lake like a squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: as we watch prospects for a phased noteworthy storm follow the season trends to duster city, maybe we can salvage the transient weenie death band for some brief +sn action thursday morning, guidance really hinting at an odd band moving down the lake like a squall line Euro shitting the bed as well. S and drier. Seasonal trends WILL NOT BE DENIED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Seasonal trends will not be denied. Congrats C IN. Some of the CAM’s were a complete whiff south too. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: as we watch prospects for a phased noteworthy storm follow the season trends to duster city, maybe we can salvage the transient weenie death band for some brief +sn action thursday morning, guidance really hinting at an odd band moving down the lake like a squall line It's along the Arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1-2" outta do it here. GFS/NAM on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Man that was a terrible euro run. I'm not sure I buy it being that south, esp with other guidance like gfs and nam a lot more north. Funny because euro was the only model before that was the most north and phased and now it's probably the furthest south. Lets see if other models follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/9/2020 at 1:59 PM, Chicago Storm said: 2.0” call. . $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 My original 1.5" in jeopardy of busting high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 The Euro I believe is too far south with the low, just too wonky with the track with a couple turns east through the day on Wednesday. It is struggling with convection created vorticity and not latching to the main trough ejecting out of the plains itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I do have some concern with the main llj focus being well south and possibly limiting precip amounts a bit up into this area. That being said, a blend of the op/ensemble runs would still suggest 4-5" to be attainable around here when factoring in improving ratios over time. The 12z Euro was a disappointing run and while not outright dismissing, would be easier to buy into the worst case scenario if temps were a big concern and duration was short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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