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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I would argue that the prob snow maps have been accurate.  They have never trended above 50% for 3 inches or more all winter inside of five days and it has not snowed.  During the 15 day ensemble period still no high probs of snow.  I completely agree that snow maps don’t tell us anything about the pattern itself.

LOL, as long as they don’t say 100% and then it doesn’t snow they will always be accurate..

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It has been a long time and they are rusty. Help them out.
I know the event will probably not be a big deal but I'm jealous they are tracking something lol

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6z EURO.  No snow this work week. T minus about 4 weeks and counting.
 

Southern weenies are super excited about the nam and are ignoring the euro

They will definitely be disappointed if they follow the NAM. It has promised us so much snow up here in Upstate NY this winter...and failed many times. Add the GEFS to that. I would have 200 inches of snow for the winter if they were right.

Wisdom: Trust those who have lived through it and experienced it. Don't trust the NAM!

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Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

 

AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

 

AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

 

 

 

There was research done not directly related to the PV that seasons with well BN snowfall and AN temps yield a hotter summer. It is posted by Don in the Philly sub.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There was research done not directly related to the PV that seasons with well BN snowfall and AN temps yield a hotter summer. It is posted by Don in the Philly sub.

That’s wonderful news ^_^

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Showme already touched on the day 9 threat but day 7 timeframe with the first sw ejecting from out west  is still trackable imo  .Most likely a marginal setup if it were to come together . 0z Euro wasn't real far off from the possibilty.  Gets snows into central- north Pa. 

Gefs low clustering hr174

 

Screenshot_20200218-084035_Chrome.jpg

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33 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

 

AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

 

 

 

That's a pretty impressive look. Keep in mind that there is a lot of energy stored within that jet. When the SPV starts weakening and breaking down as we transition into Spring that energy will need to be released. How that will probably be released will be with some significant amplification within the mid-latitude wave lengths. There could be some very impressive/wacky solutions in store for us in the spring.

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Showme already touched on the day 9 threat but day 7 timeframe with the first sw ejecting from out west  is still trackable imo  .Most likely a marginal setup if it were to come together . 0z Euro wasn't real far off from the possibilty.  Gets snows into central- north Pa. 

Gefs low clustering hr174

 

Screenshot_20200218-084035_Chrome.jpg

Have been keeping an eye on that as well. Temps will be an issue though and I am not sure how we can achieve the temps needed without killing the SW before it can have an impact on us.

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43 minutes ago, Ji said:
45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
It has been a long time and they are rusty. Help them out.

I know the event will probably not be a big deal but I'm jealous they are tracking something lol

Its gonna be a big nothing for most of us down here. Looks better for my area of NC only due to some POSSIBLE coastal enhancement, but still it's a stretch to believe the set up given the Euro really wants little part of it. But at least we are tracking something.  2 years down here and not a single trash can topper. 

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39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There was research done not directly related to the PV that seasons with well BN snowfall and AN temps yield a hotter summer. It is posted by Don in the Philly sub

Certainly has been a tendency for hotter summers it seems lately,  although I wonder the data set regarding Don's research.  Are we to possible expect different outcomes this time around due to changes in summer blocking and changes in the base state? Hard to argue that the Atlantic 's warm SSTs are not going to be a factor in the summer and in the early Fall this year.  We have not knocked down those ocean temps much this winter at all.  I can see implications possibly for the upcoming Hurricane season. 

Touching  on blocking in the NAO domain , in hindsight those who expressed concern about the record - NAO back in the late spring and summer were correct. When the NAO flipped to positive it remained there for about 95 % of the winter beginning on December 1 st.

 

 nao.sprd2.gif

 

  

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

Certainly has been a tendency for hotter summers it seems lately,    

No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.  

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No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.  

I’ve been saying this for about 5 years....very difficult to have a cold planet when the oceans are WELL above normal.
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3 minutes ago, anotherman said:


I’ve been saying this for about 5 years....very difficult to have a cold planet when the oceans are WELL above normal.

Amen .... and when that warming ocean is your next door neighbor, oh well ....... As always ......

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.  

I even wrote that in a way to temper my perceived observations.  Last few years has been discouraging to say the least.  

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I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

Totally agree. Another thing I have noticed is that for the most part there really hasn't been many surprises inside of 96 hrs. Models have been locking onto a general storm track early on and not wavering all that much in the grand scheme of things. 

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

Agree 100%. Have to think the performance we saw with the models over the winter was one of their better/maybe best? efforts. The models just 10 years or even possibly 5 years ago weren't even in the same ballpark as what we saw this year. 

eta: cue the models to now go into the tank. :lol:

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34 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Totally agree. Another thing I have noticed is that for the most part there really hasn't been many surprises inside of 96 hrs. Models have been locking onto a general storm track early on and not wavering all that much in the grand scheme of things. 

While model swings happened in November once the vortexes coupled in late December the basic ideas were more stable. I recall the every two week pattern flips, then after a while that manifested to mostly warm with at most an occasional two day period of cooler weather. 

November will go down as the month with the most impressive negative temp departures.   

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Agree 100%. Have to think the performance we saw with the models over the winter was one of their better/maybe best? efforts. The models just 10 years or even possibly 5 years ago weren't even in the same ballpark as what we saw this year. 

Impressive from even back in October when the models forecasted the positive NAM state. And,  even a very positive NAO.  The outcomes this year from the seasonal models have been stellar. 

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@showmethesnow problem with the day 7 system is we need to get lucky with a NS feature to suppress but right now the NS energy is coming in on top of the system or behind it.  That might suppress the system but its also going to wreck the mid levels and also prevent any good closed circulation to form, thus no good precip shield just the showery crap we see right now on guidance.  We need to see a trend towards getting a NS system to come across ahead of the system.  I suppose it's far enough out that is still possible, and the ridge axis across Canada is good enough that if we had some confluence in front it could work...but we haven't had that kind of luck all year.  

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Tell me I'm not the only person checking the models just hoping this Friday storm pulls a miracle move north haha. I feel like we've had storms ripped away from us at this range before, why not give us one back? 

I'll see myself out 

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