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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I'd rather there not be a tease...not even looking ahead (as much as I wish there were something hopeful) This is the worst winter we've ever had outside of 1972-73. The WORST...And who knows if the next winter or the one after will be much better. Had something working against us the last 4 years (but at least we still got ambiance snow...can't even buy that). 

Tired of hearing "end of the month"...mercy. To punt Feb on the tenth? That is a depressing month....we deserve a late save, though...

Hope springs eternal 

Hope is not a strategy 

 

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From Cosgrove, it would seem this late February early March look might be the light at the very last end of the tunnel. I mean this doesn’t look bad right? I just have a hard time throwing in the towel. If we have to continue to wait, so be it. Life goes on...

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

From Cosgrove, it would seem this late February early March look might be the light at the very last end of the tunnel. I mean this doesn’t look bad right? I just have a hard time throwing in the towel. If we have to continue to wait, so be it. Life goes on...

 

The GEFS has been showing signs of 'positive' change the last several runs. GEPS and EPS not as much. Sadly I think what is most likely to transpire is another failed attempt, with the PAC ridge ending up parked right where it has taken up residence for the last 2+ months. But we will have to wait and see. We truly cannot know.

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56 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

At this point - I don't really care about snow anymore. Seasonal affective disorder is getting to me and I just want it to be warm now. I don't want a repeat of the last two Marches. Just lots of sunshine. I'm sure a few people agree with me on that sentiment as well.

I hear you. Pretty depressing ‘winter’.  I’m done with winter weather in March and cold dreary Aprils.  Enough. 

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

At this point - I don't really care about snow anymore. Seasonal affective disorder is getting to me and I just want it to be warm now. I don't want a repeat of the last two Marches. Just lots of sunshine. I'm sure a few people agree with me on that sentiment as well.

Same...come March 1, I’m ready to start tracking sustained 60s and sun.  I’m over the cold, dreary March weather where its 42 and drizzling.  Yay spring -NAO!

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11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Why would anyone want a cold March?

Because it is 'normal'?? The average for March is 55/28 here, and 90% of the 'warmth' happens the last 5/6 days of the month if you look at the overall averages for the month. The 1st 3 weeks run 50/25 to 55/30 and last week is in the 60/62 over 32 range.

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We’ve managed some pretty good March storms. 93 being at the top of my list. If it wants to snow in my favorite month (my bday), I’m not kicking it out of bed. Lol. Warmth and shorts season is long enough already. Feels like it just ended as it is. I’m all in for one more attempt at some cold white smoke. 

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I want a deep freeze to cut down on the annoying bugs in spring and summer. I bet we have a huge mosquito season if not. 

As someone who gets eaten alive, I’m dreading this coming summer. 

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 I will continue to track but it doesnt look good. NAO, AO and EPO does not want to go favorable at all for the foreseeable future.  It's amazing how stubborn this pattern is.

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I live in SE VA, and mosquitoes are already out. We have barely had any temps below freezing. And loads of rain. Last 2 winters have been nothing but swampy. 

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25 minutes ago, Scraff said:

We’ve managed some pretty good March storms. 93 being at the top of my list. If it wants to snow in my favorite month (my bday), I’m not kicking it out of bed. Lol. Warmth and shorts season is long enough already. Feels like it just ended as it is. I’m all in for one more attempt at some cold white smoke. 

March can deliver but I have no interest in a cold April 

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52 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Same...come March 1, I’m ready to start tracking sustained 60s and sun.  I’m over the cold, dreary March weather where its 42 and drizzling.  Yay spring -NAO!

I agree. For anyone who lives near the city, March snows are just blah. No, I am not going to rehash the sun angle debate,  but I  also prefer snow that covers the streets for at least day or so, doesn’t melt from lawns the next day, and doesn’t lead to even more stress than usual given higher potential for major busts, as was case in that big March bust in 2013.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another strong technical indicator of how bad this winter has been... Mosquito talk on Feb 9th

I was just out in the yard extracting dandelions. Good time to do it with the soft soil.

I also took a walk back in the woods to check out my "seasonal" wetland, aka mosquito breeding ground. Surprisingly, nothing but one little puddle. It is usually well on its way to expanding into a 1/4 to 1/3 acre, 1 ft deep swamp by now. So now I am rooting for warm and dry. Evaporation and transpiration ftw.

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26 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Cold is necessary to kill bacteria, viruses, ticks, and invasive species. Most people have little idea why we need it to be cold. It makes me sick when the weather people on tv are joyous about 50s in January.

Drinking lots of water is a necessity also. Flushes out a lot of toxins in your body.

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40 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Cold is necessary to kill bacteria, viruses, ticks, and invasive species. Most people have little idea why we need it to be cold. It makes me sick when the weather people on tv are joyous about 50s in January.

They have to appease hundreds of thousands of completely idiotic viewers who are concerned with their own personal comfort above all else.

You have to remember that the majority of people are really ignorant. They don't even know basic things such as when the US was founded, who fought in WWII, how vaccines work, etc. The idea that cold snaps are needed to maintain our ecosystem is totally foreign to them. They probably think "Florida is always warm and it's nice there." They have zero insight or understanding of the risks of invasive species moving north. It just doesn't cross their minds.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I want a deep freeze to cut down on the annoying bugs in spring and summer. I bet we have a huge mosquito season if not. 

Warm winters don’t really equate to a big mosquito season. If it did, then the northern US and Canada wouldn’t have swarms of mosquitoes the likes of which we have never seen.

Now, if we have a warm, wet spring, then we’ll likely start off early with the mozzies.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Another strong technical indicator of how bad this winter has been... Mosquito talk on Feb 9th

Hey, I've seen gnats around already on a few occasions!  And it's almost time for the 'Nats to play as well! ;)

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Not that it makes a difference for us but definite trend south for wed night/Thursday morning deal  on op gfs the last 3 runs. Slower with S/w and faster with NS. 

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20 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Not that it makes a difference for us but definite trend south for wed night/Thursday morning deal  on op gfs the last 3 runs. Slower with S/w and faster with NS. 

Yeah it looks good for places like the Poconos now. Would probably be all snow there verbatim.

Easy chase for those who are desperate to ease their despair.

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2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Why would anyone want a cold March?

To delay tree (apples, pear, peach) flowering.  The longer trees stay dormant the longer they can handle a hard freeze.   10 degrees F on April 1 after a warm March will eliminate any hope for fruit.  But the same 10 F after a cold March shouldn’t be a problem.

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11 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I was under the impression that the late December fail was a different beast: the AK vortex Pac Puke.  AO was actually negative from roughly Dec 15th - 25th or so, but was trumped by the mild Pacific air.

We've basically had three patterns so far this winter:

1) AK vortex Pac Puke

2) Monstrous Cenral PAC ridge

3) Hudson Bay ridge (which flooded Canada with anomalous warmth)

Now we have an AK vortex again

I guess you can say the thematic features have been the raging positive AO and the MJO being in bad phases

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4 minutes ago, Amorphous Iodine said:

To delay tree (apples, pear, peach) flowering.  The longer trees stay dormant the longer they can handle a hard freeze.   10 degrees F on April 1 after a warm March will eliminate any hope for fruit.  But the same 10 F after a cold March shouldn’t be a problem.

I don't think we have to worry about any prolonged freezes

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