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weatherwiz

February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

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14 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I don't like wearing goggles. But it's a good idea.

Back in the early 2000s my astigmatism became much worse. I switched to low light colors on my goggles and they made a tremendous difference.  My last pair of Smith's were chroma and adjusted automatically to light conditions 

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Nammy has the maxT in the H8 layer on the front end. Looks like a little snow to some pelting and then ZR/R (here).

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I don't like skiing when I can't see the snow surface, is that a problem? My eyesight isn't that good with my disease.
No problems at all. I like to go fast and I'm not a fan of flat light. I get it, it just sounded odd. Really just busting your balls. ... of course, I was unaware of a medical condition. Carry on.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, shanemacdonald23 said:

This system looks to start as snow and turn to rain quickly perhaps break temp records for highs . System weekend dont look good either rain and alot of it is this February or march ? .. 

torchruary

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CMC was cold

canadian was weak with Thursday low and a tad further south with it and thus better with a solid front end thump for Pike region to SNH then it ices MHT on north on Friday as meso low keeps that area cool

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UKIE was COLD w Decent snow

UKIE looks as cold as the 12z run ...perhaps a tick colder as the low passes under us Friday pm as mid 980's system.  The meso low sort of sets stage Thursday evening as temps near 128 dont' really go above 33 on Piv Weather

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Euro is colder ...little front end thump Thursday and Friday is colder ... doesn't mild up Thursday nite....eventually warm sector Friday around 17Z after a lot of Precip is thru

Gotta watch trends with that Thursday system and then Meso low and drain getting more involved on Friday of some icing as well as MSLP Friday goes a bit South on 0z .

You can see the low centered in SW CT at 981 at 18z Friday ...however there is a 984 isobar appendage going ENE just off Boston into GOM at that time . So draw a line from SW CT to Boston ...and North of that seems in the game on this run

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro is colder ...little front end thump Thursday and Friday is colder ... doesn't mild up Thursday nite

How far north does the freezing line get at that time?

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4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

How far north does the freezing line get at that time?

Ya...Thursday nite nothing is really falling from the sky....but the meso low is keeping temps in the low 30's in NE mass say 495 out to N ORH county for now. 

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I'm just glad the Thursday low pressure isn't trending deeper and NW...ditto the Friday low as well.

Last nite's 0z euro had Friday low in Plymouth , NH at 12z Friday

tonite's run has the low running E/ENE exiting Boston Harbor into GOM. So nice trend

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I'm just glad the Thursday low pressure isn't trending deeper and NW...ditto the Friday low as well.

Last nite's 0z euro had Friday low in Plymouth , NH at 12z Friday

tonite's run has the low running E/ENE exiting Boston Harbor into GOM. So nice trend

the meso low / cad sig looks a little better than the 18z run 

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I'm just glad the Thursday low pressure isn't trending deeper and NW...ditto the Friday low as well.

Last nite's 0z euro had Friday low in Plymouth , NH at 12z Friday

tonite's run has the low running E/ENE exiting Boston Harbor into GOM. So nice trend

I made that correction on the Euro chart for my First Call earlier this evening. You could see that the model had the low going over me here in Methuen on Friday, but I drew an arrow over se MA.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I made that correction on the Euro chart for my First Call earlier this evening. You could see that the model had the low going over me here in Methuen on Friday, but I drew an arrow over se MA.

Lol.. you and your arrows 

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Euro def got more interesting for the siggy ice idea late Thursday night/Friday morning. Most 00z guidance did actually. The snow thump got a bit better too...esp pike north.

W’ell have to see if that’s a real trend or if it just goes back warmer at 12z. 

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Part one on thurs looks to be tracking a little further south on the overnight runs with a little more snow here with the 1st SW, Looks like the key to the friday deal is a little less amped coming out of the SW as it moves NE, If we get that Meso low to form and track into the GOM, It looks to advect colder dews SE from QUE thru Northen Maine further south which keeps the colder air at the surface as well, 0z Euro had it and it started to show up last night on the 18z run, 06z Nam has it as well and was much colder too, But it comes with its normal caveats at the time frame , We will see in an hour or so if the 06z Euro continues or goes back warmer, Looks like the GFS is the furthest west outlier and the warmest at the moment.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro def got more interesting for the siggy ice idea late Thursday night/Friday morning. Most 00z guidance did actually. The snow thump got a bit better too...esp pike north.

W’ell have to see if that’s a real trend or if it just goes back warmer at 12z. 

We take with Open arms, faithfully 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes has 52 Boston Friday lol

It still could be warm for all of us. We’ll know more today hopefully. The thing with Friday is that even if we aren’t getting warm, the cold air may be sort of stale with the true cold below 32, further north near NH border. That will depend on whether or not we can get a good north wind going with any meso low passage. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It still could be warm for all of us. We’ll know more today hopefully. The thing with Friday is that even if we aren’t getting warm, the cold air may be sort of stale with the true cold below 32, further north near NH border. That will depend on whether or not we can get a good north wind going with any meso low passage. 

Nothing like a 33-34 rainer.  :)

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It still could be warm for all of us. We’ll know more today hopefully. The thing with Friday is that even if we aren’t getting warm, the cold air may be sort of stale with the true cold below 32, further north near NH border. That will depend on whether or not we can get a good north wind going with any meso low passage. 

Usually you toss those warm temps when you see these setups I recall many where you have sniffed these out. I’m not saying it’s 20’s thru Fri nite, but I’d bet money it stays below 38

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Just this season we have had a few ZR chances but most did not materialize; was the 2008 ice storm a consistently forecasted event by the models?

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6z Euro with a distinct meso low and flip to snow at the end, even near the coast.  I think verbatim that would be a tucky look for at least NE MA. 

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5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Just this season we have had a few ZR chances but most did not materialize; was the 2008 ice storm a consistently forecasted event by the models?

2008 was forecasted pretty well once about 48-60 hours out. A lot of models were terrible with the CAD though...esp GFS, but even the Euro kind of sucked. Euro was trying to drive the low over interior New England. 

But most of us (including Mets at NWS Box) we’re not buying it and siding with the meso models that tracked it over SE MA. NAM did well in that event though it was actually just a hair too cold until inside of 24h...had ice a little further south than what actually materialized. But back then the NAM had a colder bias at the sfc in CAD...something it doesn’t have now. 

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You almost wonder if we can tighten up the s/w for Friday and get the low to develop quicker, it may end on a snowier note. 

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