coastalplainsnowman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, uncle W said: least amount of seasonal snowfall up to Feb. 21st... 1997-98.....0.5" 1918-19.....1.1" 1972-73.....2.6" 1991-92.....3.2" 2001-02.....3.5" 1888-89.....4.5" 2006-07.....4.6" 1931-32.....4.7" 2019-20.....4.8" 1988-89.....5.6" 1958-59.....5.7" Interesting that the 'Blizzard of 88' was followed by the least-snowiest-through-Feb-21st winter on record, and that stood apparently for 30 years, remaining in the top 3 in that category for over 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: lets hope the fu*k not One day it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Interesting that the 'Blizzard of 88' was followed by the least-snowiest-through-Feb-21st winter on record, and that stood apparently for 30 years, remaining in the top 3 in that category for over 100 years. yep it came at the end of a relatively snowless winter-the day it started it was in the mid 50's in NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:10 AM, MJO812 said: This might be the winter where the pattern change was just 10 days away multiple times and never verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: actually after the models bailed on the late January pattern change, they just showed cutters and torches from that point on--yep it was so bad we could not even get the fantasy pattern change to show up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: Such a stupid game Nothing I can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nothing I can do about it. really? IP ban? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: really? IP ban? Says the guy who welcomed him back LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nothing I can do about it. Sorta like national/international politics on a weather stage. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Milder air will return starting tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +10.71 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.837. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.399 from 2008. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 29, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.077 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.640. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Well at least it felt nice today, 35/19 temp split. Just a T of snow this month...1998 also had a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: See my post from yesterday. Getting to the point of the year where just below average won’t do it anymore. Those average temps are racing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Spring looks a tad nippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Spring looks a tad nippy Cold at hr 348 on the GFS. When have we seen that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, HailMan06 said: Cold at hr 348 on the GFS. When have we seen that before? True that, but the GFS is on a roll it picked up on the last two days from far out and also next weekends cold which has ECM support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 3 hours ago, HailMan06 said: Cold at hr 348 on the GFS. When have we seen that before? Did someone really just post the 348 hr op GFS? Lmfaooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 12 hours ago, Brian5671 said: really? IP ban? Several times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The last 8 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.8[39.4]. February should end near +4.9[40.2], or 5th. Place. The March cooldown now consists of five days in the 60's!!!. I'll calculate the damage when I recover. OK, the (06Z, GFS) is averaging 47degs. for the first 9 days of March, or about 8 or 9 degrees AN. 31* here at 6am. 32* by 8am. 41* by Noon. 47* by 2pm. 50* at 3pm. 52* at 4pm. 47* by 6pm. 43* by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 First time that several of our stations don’t even have a trace of snow for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Did someone really just post the 348 hr op GFS? Lmfaooo Some people never learn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Preliminary AO data suggests that we may have a new 2nd highest reading following the record on February 10th. The first month with two +6 or higher values. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii 01Feb2020 0.20221E+01 -0.52677E-01 0.29204E+00 -0.64548E+00 02Feb2020 0.18573E+01 0.21773E+00 0.20699E+00 -0.55492E+00 03Feb2020 0.12789E+01 0.15999E-01 0.71990E-01 0.41582E+00 04Feb2020 0.11909E+01 -0.10099E+00 0.56737E-01 0.79638E+00 05Feb2020 0.11668E+01 -0.29145E+00 0.34918E+00 0.96277E+00 06Feb2020 0.21146E+01 -0.21840E+00 0.56460E+00 0.11092E+01 07Feb2020 0.22717E+01 0.24262E+00 0.94827E+00 0.37856E+00 08Feb2020 0.31727E+01 0.82119E+00 0.87266E+00 -0.29577E+00 09Feb2020 0.51799E+01 0.14128E+01 0.44704E+00 -0.61452E+00 10Feb2020 0.63415E+01 0.15626E+01 -0.16199E+00 -0.78893E+00 11Feb2020 0.52334E+01 0.12471E+01 -0.42390E+00 -0.63371E+00 12Feb2020 0.32855E+01 0.10390E+01 -0.15466E+00 0.42111E+00 13Feb2020 0.18597E+01 0.79792E+00 0.64890E-01 0.11103E+01 14Feb2020 0.16864E+01 0.83402E+00 0.19030E+00 0.59934E+00 15Feb2020 0.27003E+01 0.11294E+01 0.25389E+00 -0.32445E+00 16Feb2020 0.41686E+01 0.12515E+01 0.12688E+00 -0.45273E+00 17Feb2020 0.47429E+01 0.12109E+01 0.62894E-01 0.58521E-01 18Feb2020 0.46598E+01 0.10510E+01 0.97554E-01 0.70548E-01 19Feb2020 0.43469E+01 0.10294E+01 0.21451E-01 -0.29174E+00 20Feb2020 0.43393E+01 0.10597E+01 0.13981E+00 -0.19496E+00 21Feb2020 0.58365E+01 0.12835E+01 0.22726E+00 0.24356E+00 22Feb2020 0.61873E+01 0.15184E+01 0.26919E+00 0.85533E+00 Date AO NAO PNA AAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 8 hours ago, RedSky said: Spring looks a tad nippy Spring has yet to arrive for another 2 weeks after this Anyway, nice February weekend incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Morning thoughts... 1. The preliminary value of the AO was +6.187. That was the second highest figure on record, just behind the preliminary value of +6.342 on February 10. 2. The prospect that New York City will see less than 10" seasonal snowfall for only the 10th time on record is increasing. No moderate or significant snowfalls appear likely through the remainder of February. 3. Past extremely strong polar vortex events at this time of year have been followed by a warmer than normal March in the region. 4. The CFSv2, which had previously shown very cold conditions for March, is now in the early stages of a possible correction. The latest run has dramatically reduced the expanse and magnitude of the cold from that shown on the recent runs. 5. Europe is likely to experience more above and much above normal temperatures in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Some people never learn.... Not everyone wants warm weather to come. Plenty of people are still in winter mode . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Several times Actually Rjay, if Dr. Dews and Anthony have the same laugh reaction to a post we have to admit, at least indirectly that the poster in question did accomplish something. If S19 joins with the same reaction, I’ll put in a plea to WXWATCHER007 for clemency. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Mild and dry February day with a 17% relative humidity at Newark. Newark Liberty FAIR 48 5 17 SW15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Today was another springlike day at the New York Botanical Garden. Under bright sunshine, the temperature reached 50°. Some tourists were overheard stating that they did not know New York City was so mild during the winter. Four photos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Milder air returned to the region after a cool start. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 50° during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Winter 2019-2020 is the 12th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 11 prior cases was 8.2" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 64% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +6.10 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.187. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.590 from 2008. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 1, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.082. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Temp dropped 7° in past hour as winds went calm...down to 33°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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