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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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Honestly although it’s useless to discuss on this level but verbatim it seems to blow its load up to the pike and then occlude

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Just now, weathafella said:

Honestly although it’s useless to discuss on this level but verbatim it seems to blow its load up to the pike and then occlude

I think it's a N NJ special the way it tucks in and looking at the RH fields. 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think it's a N NJ special the way it tucks in and looking at the RH fields. 

Only .4qpf difference not that it matters

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That would Save the season.

Any clowns? 

Yea right in this thread,cmon multiple by ten

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only .4qpf difference not that it matters

Well I was looking at the RH fields too, I think the max snow would run from NW NJ north into eastern NY. Normal coastal jack of course, too. 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Staggering differences between Euro/GFS...almost laughable really.  

ONE of them is Dr. No.  Which one?  CMC is down with the GFS, but more west.  The delta between the CMC and Euro is planetary.  

Behind door number three is the week wave that scoots out underneath us.  

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

60/40 compromise, congrats interior.

that might be congrats PA :lmao: 

but seriously...and not just with this system but just overall...there have been times of enormous differences between the two. I totally understand the time frame we're dealing with but with technology and modeling supposedly becoming better diversions just keep getting worse. Perhaps they need to start canning some models, get rid of running them 4x per day and re-prioritize the focus in improving them.  

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

EPS has a nice signal, Will has those nice EPS maps, not sure he will post them 204 hrs out 

Too amped for my liking

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

EPS has a nice signal, Will has those nice EPS maps, not sure he will post them 204 hrs out 

Pretty huggy solution if you ask me....but it's 200 hour out, so I'm not really parsing this that closely right now

 

 

Jan24_12zEPS210.png

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that might be congrats PA :lmao: 

but seriously...and not just with this system but just overall...there have been times of enormous differences between the two. I totally understand the time frame we're dealing with but with technology and modeling supposedly becoming better diversions just keep getting worse. Perhaps they need to start canning some models, get rid of running them 4x per day and re-prioritize the focus in improving them.  

I don’t like the 4x runs either but...

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Too amped for my liking

Yeah you are burnt toast on an EPS mean type track....New England would prob do ok...esp interior.

But it's mostly meaningless right now. The pattern isn't very good for the coast though...esp further south. Need something to change either out west or in the NAO....or just get really lucky with a needle-threader.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that might be congrats PA :lmao: 

but seriously...and not just with this system but just overall...there have been times of enormous differences between the two. I totally understand the time frame we're dealing with but with technology and modeling supposedly becoming better diversions just keep getting worse. Perhaps they need to start canning some models, get rid of running them 4x per day and re-prioritize the focus in improving them.  

Meh, they're still getting better. I think what we've discovered with higher resolution and more frequent model runs, is that run to run variability is very high with a complicated process like the atmosphere. When we were limited to sparse data and infrequent model runs they seemed more locked than was actuality. 

In the long term they really are just another ensemble member.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you are burnt toast on an EPS mean type track....New England would prob do ok...esp interior.

But it's mostly meaningless right now. The pattern isn't very good for the coast though...esp further south. Need something to change either out west or in the NAO....or just get really lucky with a needle-threader.

I thought the pattern was better for this one? another needle threader.. Yuck!

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

I thought the pattern was better for this one? another needle threader.. Yuck!

It is better with a transient PNA ridge  but not alot of cold air.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty huggy solution if you ask me....but it's 200 hour out, so I'm not really parsing this that closely right now

 

 

Jan24_12zEPS210.png

Alot of nice solutions

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t like the 4x runs either but...

I think they make sense for short-range (inside 96-hours) but not outside that. it just really adds further confusing instead of clarification. 

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Meh, they're still getting better. I think what we've discovered with higher resolution and more frequent model runs, is that run to run variability is very high with a complicated process like the atmosphere. When we were limited to sparse data and infrequent model runs they seemed more locked than was actuality. 

In the long term they really are just another ensemble member.

That's an excellent point. I think in the perfect world, the thought that higher resolution with more data inputs would result in far more accurate forecasts, however, that doesn't necessarily seem to be the case. With how complicated and complex the atmosphere in incorporating more variables just results in a more complex and highly variable results. Even in the short-term we've seen some drastic changes...especially with larger-scale features. 

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I do have some fear for amped solutions. Makes me a little nervous seeing where the Euro/GFS sharpen the trough and how both advertise a rather significant MLJ streak rounding the base of the trough and where this occurs. Really too far out to be overly concerned about but is this can happen just a tad later our chances increase a bit  

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think they make sense for short-range (inside 96-hours) but not outside that. it just really adds further confusing instead of clarification. 

That's an excellent point. I think in the perfect world, the thought that higher resolution with more data inputs would result in far more accurate forecasts, however, that doesn't necessarily seem to be the case. With how complicated and complex the atmosphere in incorporating more variables just results in a more complex and highly variable results. Even in the short-term we've seen some drastic changes...especially with larger-scale features. 

Getting close to the convective scale introduces problems. Not my area of expertise, but I would imagine it leads to more of the chaos effect in the long term when you develop those small scale, but sometimes large magnitude features. 

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8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I thought the pattern was better for this one? another needle threader.. Yuck!

It is better. I didn’t say it was great though. Lol. We have a better antecedent airmass...not a high bar to clear compared to tomorrow. There’s some western ridging. Maybe some Hudson Bay ridging too. 

But the airmass isn’t exceptional and the isn’t a great 50/50 type low so this would favor the interior all else equal. 

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Too amped for my liking

It's just eye candy right now...nothing more.  But, the take away is that both major models have now shown a bomb in that 2/2-2/3 time frame.  Doesn't mean much but that a system could be looming in and around that time frame.  I certainly wouldn't be optimistic about though...not the way things cave in this season so far.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Getting close to the convective scale introduces problems. Not my area of expertise, but I would imagine it leads to more of the chaos effect in the long term when you develop those small scale, but sometimes large magnitude features. 

I was actually going to get into that in my post...was reading a bit about that on a MedEd module a bit back. I think this explains (partly) the famous D10 "fantasy" storms that arise. 

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