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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Tick tok, tick tok.....

 

It`s been over for a few weeks now.

BAM was the 1st, they threw the towel in on Jan 12th. Many of us just as FEB began.

 

The EPS is saying expect 0 snow over the next 15 days. 

 

The clock stop ticking a few weeks ago. 

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3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

It`s been over for a few weeks now.

BAM was the 1st, they threw the towel in on Jan 12th. Many of us just as FEB began.

 

The EPS is saying expect 0 snow over the next 15 days. 

 

The clock stop ticking a few weeks ago. 

You and snowman cam stop tracking if you think it's over.

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JB's latest analog is to call up the ghost of the Blizzard of '88 for the 23rd., I guess.        He earlier invoked the Blizzard of 1993.         He used a score of storms and classic cold outbreaks throughout this winter, hoping to hit the jackpot with one of them.

SD pointed out today that stratosphere was cooling and this doomed any Arctic air from ever reaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.        The PV would just fade and meld with the rest of the atmosphere-----in other words it would enjoy the natural death it always suffers with the higher elevation of the sun.      He called winter off weeks ago, but due to an active Sub-Tropical Jet,  was holding open the possibility of an accidental storm.      Till now, I suppose.

Nothing showing here, just one more dip after Saturday:

2020021312_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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30 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I'm still confident that we'll get a decent storm but that won't make it a good winter, even if it's a 2 footer it won't make it a good winter. 

2 feet would put everyone close to average and would definitely make up for the winter to me, there's not going to be a 2 footer anywhere near the city though, the pattern is crappy for at least the next week still and then we are moving toward March where over a foot from a storm near the coast is very rare.  

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10 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

JB's latest analog is to call up the ghost of the Blizzard of '88 for the 23rd., I guess.        He earlier invoked the Blizzard of 1993.         He used a score of storms and classic cold outbreaks throughout this winter, hoping to hit the jackpot with one of them.

SD pointed out today that stratosphere was cooling and this doomed any Arctic air from ever reaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.        The PV would just fade and meld with the rest of the atmosphere-----in other words it would enjoy the natural death it always suffers with the higher elevation of the sun.      He called winter off weeks ago, but due to an active Sub-Tropical Jet,  was holding open the possibility of an accidental storm.      Till now, I suppose.

Nothing showing here, just one more dip after Saturday:

2020021312_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

JB is seeing more ghosts than Sam Darnold did against the Patriots...

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43 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

2 feet would put everyone close to average and would definitely make up for the winter to me, there's not going to be a 2 footer anywhere near the city though, the pattern is crappy for at least the next week still and then we are moving toward March where over a foot from a storm near the coast is very rare.  

I remember a few years ago people screaming and yelling at me because I didn't think we would get a two foot blizzard in March. No less than Mitchell Volk chimed in to agree with me. We got 5-6 slushy inches of snow/sleet. Higher elevations got more. the same thing happened in 2018; higher elevations with big amounts, we had 3 inches. Not even the superstorm of 93 could get us to a foot....is it impossible? Nope. Is it likely? Nope. Is it likely this year? Nope.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

JB's latest analog is to call up the ghost of the Blizzard of '88 for the 23rd., I guess.        He earlier invoked the Blizzard of 1993.         He used a score of storms and classic cold outbreaks throughout this winter, hoping to hit the jackpot with one of them.

SD pointed out today that stratosphere was cooling and this doomed any Arctic air from ever reaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.        The PV would just fade and meld with the rest of the atmosphere-----in other words it would enjoy the natural death it always suffers with the higher elevation of the sun.      He called winter off weeks ago, but due to an active Sub-Tropical Jet,  was holding open the possibility of an accidental storm.      Till now, I suppose.

Nothing showing here, just one more dip after Saturday:

2020021312_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

It should be noted that since winter 1869-70, there is only 1 case where seasonal snowfall through February was less than 10" and March had an 8" or greater snowfall in New York City: 1956. Seasonal snowfall through February 1956 was 8.2".  The February 1956 AO average was -2.029. The second lowest figure was 10.8" in 1981 (February AO: -0.331).

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I remember a few years ago people screaming and yelling at me because I didn't think we would get a two foot blizzard in March. No less than Mitchell Volk chimed in to agree with me. We got 5-6 slushy inches of snow/sleet. Higher elevations got more. the same thing happened in 2018; higher elevations with big amounts, we had 3 inches. Not even the superstorm of 93 could get us to a foot....is it impossible? Nope. Is it likely? Nope. Is it likely this year? Nope.

Didn’t you get a foot in the last March storm of 2018? I had 10-11 here in Metuchen. The first March storm the CCB ended up just to our west. We did have some nice thunder snow to start that event. Places with not that much elevation had 1-2 feet just to our west. 

 

March 2017 ended up trending west inside 24 hours. It happens unfortunately. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

2 feet would put everyone close to average and would definitely make up for the winter to me, there's not going to be a 2 footer anywhere near the city though, the pattern is crappy for at least the next week still and then we are moving toward March where over a foot from a storm near the coast is very rare.  

1 storm of consequence doesn't "make a winter", at least I've never felt that way. Sure it might get the numbers about where they need to be but IMO that's not what it's all about. 

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44 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

1 storm of consequence doesn't "make a winter", at least I've never felt that way. Sure it might get the numbers about where they need to be but IMO that's not what it's all about. 

Yea I get what you are saying but to me a true 2 foot storm is a major event and that on it's own  could make up for the winter especially near the coast where we are more reliant on a few major storms than snow throughout the winter, inland I know it's a bit different.

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15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You and snowman cam stop tracking if you think it's over.

 

This winter is akin to a typical Met`s season . A B/N November ( when it didn`t  matter ) and then a complete whiff the rest of the way.

Just like when the Met`s win in April and then end up being eliminated by the end of July. 

 

@psv88, don`t get nasty lol. 

 

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People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited.

Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

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33 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited.

Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

Yeah, it's a nice day outside. Cool and the sky has that pale blue winter look.

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14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t you get a foot in the last March storm of 2018? I had 10-11 here in Metuchen. The first March storm the CCB ended up just to our west. We did have some nice thunder snow to start that event. Places with not that much elevation had 1-2 feet just to our west. 

 

March 2017 ended up trending west inside 24 hours. It happens unfortunately. 

 

 

No, we didn't get quite that much, but 10-11 does happen, not a lot, but the two footers in March are very rare. Areas to my south ( Monmouth ) and North got the bulk of the snow.

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4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

This winter is akin to a typical Met`s season . A B/N November ( when it didn`t  matter ) and then a complete whiff the rest of the way.

Just like when the Met`s win in April and then end up being eliminated by the end of July. 

 

@psv88, don`t get nasty lol. 

 

That's a perfect analogy. Well done sir, well done

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4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

This winter is akin to a typical Met`s season . A B/N November ( when it didn`t  matter ) and then a complete whiff the rest of the way.

Just like when the Met`s win in April and then end up being eliminated by the end of July. 

 

@psv88, don`t get nasty lol. 

 

Yep, wasted a good pattern in November and early December because it was to early climo wise. Next November I would like to see it torch from beginning to end.

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

No, we didn't get quite that much, but 10-11 does happen, not a lot, but the two footers in March are very rare. Areas to my south ( Monmouth ) and North got the bulk of the snow.

Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March.

BC4B4E6F-61DD-4759-A325-8EE0F83B1413.png

36016E2A-D15C-4DBC-97C5-03533DC652C4.png

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