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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

18z NAM nest is FIERCE for the immediate metro area tomorrow between 22z and 00z roughly. Even some decent UD helicity swaths.

A big ol bowing segment towards DC and Baltimore.  Looks wicked.

Long range Hrrr v4 is real busy tomorrow fwiw .

Currently a few severe cells in central Pa headed se ...maybe ne Md pummeled later lol

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Messier convective mode than the NAM nest, though. We'll see what the CAMs do in subsequent runs. 

    yes, but there is still some organization and a clear sfc cold pool.    Deep layer shear isn't quite as good as in some other CAMs, but the inverted-V sounding structure will definitely promote robust cold pool formation.       I think we'll wake up tomorrow in a SLGT.

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28 minutes ago, high risk said:

    yes, but there is still some organization and a clear sfc cold pool.    Deep layer shear isn't quite as good as in some other CAMs, but the inverted-V sounding structure will definitely promote robust cold pool formation.       I think we'll wake up tomorrow in a SLGT.

High risk or bust ;) 

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21 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Tornado Warning for Philly. Talk about a day up there.

Looks like some widely scattered activity could sneak down here in a few hours.

Hopefully but I'm not as confident as I was . Winds are due west and dews drying out here . 73 dew 2 hours ago with a nw wind ..

Currently 83/65

 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hopefully but I'm not as confident as I was . Winds are due west and dews drying out here . 73 dew 2 hours ago with a nw wind ..

Currently 83/65

 

Any kind of westerly wind is never a great sign for us. Gotta have that southeast wind!

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Current hrrr doesn't appear to lineup with current radar representation in southern Pa fwiw so maby northern areas can squeak a storm out before environment fizzles :D

My $ would be on Harford/Cecil counties if anyone 

Yeah, that's it. The one storm farther west fell apart. Tomorrow looks interesting, maybe Friday, too.

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11 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

I'm seeing lightning from the cell that just ripped through Red Lion. 

We got a trace of precip today just before sunrise.  Talk about a bust.

That cell that blew through York is holding together and the only game in town.  Extreme eastern Harford and probably more likely Cecil county looks inline. 

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24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That cell that blew through York is holding together and the only game in town.  Extreme eastern Harford and probably more likely Cecil county looks inline. 

    Had a glorious view of that York cell from southern Howard County.     Could see a fair amount of lightning within it too.IMG_4380.thumb.jpeg.ab288189598cfef88fc01c361638aafe.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z NAMNEST is really the only run/model that has anything other than a run-of-the-mill event. If you're looking for garden variety stuff with some pulse severe the majority of the guidance is on your side. I've learned over the years to disregard the NAMNEST when it's out on its own.

        time to invoke this forum's scale for level of interest by user.      It won't be any sort of high end day for sure,  but I'm still feeling good about some organized line segments with severe potential tomorrow.   

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@high risk is correct... new morning Day 1 OTLK has SLGT for most of LWX CWA... 5% hail and 15% wind

0600z OTLK disco:

Quote
 ...Mid Atlantic region...

   A corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints will persist east of the
   higher terrain and along southern periphery of belt of modest
   westerlies. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   is expected from VA and MD into southern PA and NJ. Storms are
   expected to develop over the higher terrain and along lee trough as
   the boundary layer destabilizes. Vertical shear will remain weak,
   but 25-35 kt deep layer flow will support storms spreading east off
   the higher terrain, possibly evolving into loosely organized
   clusters capable of strong to damaging wind gusts.
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8 hours ago, high risk said:

        time to invoke this forum's scale for level of interest by user.      It won't be any sort of high end day for sure,  but I'm still feeling good about some organized line segments with severe potential tomorrow.   

I'm thinking a Yoda kind of day? My lawn will like some rain though.

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