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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't even get a 10 day digital snow right.  The 6z beauty just slid south.   Still early to give up on winter though.  

Trust me...we want it south on the GFS at this range...its been too cold all winter at range.  If the euro goes suppressed consistently then I will worry a bit more...still not much at that range.  The EPS is all over the place shotgun style right now with that storm.  

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1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Got it, thanks

sorry...don't mean to be short.  People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal.  That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!!  Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

sorry...don't mean to be short.  People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal.  That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!!  Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.  

No issues, I look forward to your analysis daily. BLUF, it just has not been cold enough this Winter when moisture is in place.

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I know it’s been brought up many times, and no one wants to hear about waiting 10 more days,  but 12z GEFS still says the week 2/6-13 is a period of interest.  

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35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The UKIE just totally capitulated to the euro. If this works out like the euro has shown then it’s quite an affirmation of just how good it is.

Yea except I am sure some clown will point out how it had that one run at day 9 where it bombed us with snow to show its crap and models suck blah blah blah

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3 hours ago, Zanclidae said:

Methinks the only operas that are going to be sung are Madama Butterfly, given the trends.

But hey, who knows?  We still have plenty of time for PDIII and even SSII (1993 redux).

So there's that!

La Boheme or La Traviata might be a better match for this cold season. At the end of those, I believe, the “fat man” had  the final note. As always ..........

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

sorry...don't mean to be short.  People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal.  That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!!  Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.  

I'm glad some level heads still prevail on these boards....My forum is about to go full tilt meltdown.  I'm glad some realize we are here to discuss the good bad and meh...regardless of how much of the bad we've already had to discuss.  Keep it up.  

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yea its not going to snow this winter. We had 2 chances this week. The bob Chill Storm was a great chance and that fizzled so you think the one behind it turns into something and that fizzles....we dont even get a chance to get precipitation to see what could happen. its just not going to snow.....the other events in this "new pattern" will not work out and we all know it. 

get ready to drive people...thats the only way you are seeing snow

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO for this weekend.  Still a fish storm, but the fish are now getting wet on the Delmarva not off of the coast.

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype_3hr-0569200.png

this storm was especially disappointing because had it been a legit noreaster, it would of been a heavy wet snow event. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro took a substantial jump nw. Not enough but noteworthy.

yes took us from drier to dry

  • Haha 2

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Just now, Ji said:

yes took us from drier to dry

Gotta see the positives dude. The fact that the euro and UKIE took pretty radical jumps is indicative that there’s a lot up in the air with this one.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gotta see the positives dude. The fact that the euro and UKIE took pretty radical jumps is indicative that there’s a lot up in the air with this one.

didnt the ukie go from wet and close to out to sea?

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40 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12z GEFS has about 40% of it Members with perfectly acceptable solutions for NEXT weekend.  At least it is not looking like a torch for next weekend.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-1314400.png

That's a positive ensemble run. The one constant I take away from this is the look to our NW. Theres enough cold for snow and 60-70% of members give western Maryland/pa some snow. Which to me means that there something can break a little more in our favor (inside 3-4 days). Just a WAG

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Can. Ens. has about 30 percent for NEXT weekend.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-1292800.png

Same thoughts. Like the look to our NW. Way better than a shut out, raging SE ridge look

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro took a substantial jump nw. Not enough but noteworthy.

Ninja'd. I noticed the same. The trough is sharper but our wave is not tucked. Little too late. It will be cool if something popped inside 3 days

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes took us from drier to dry

Haha, that's too funny

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

No offense, but if you aren't interested in following the models and what could or could not happen, regardless of where you live and how big or small the unicorn is, then please don't comment anymore in this thread. 

This is a weather discussion thread and not solely a model affirmation thread 

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This is a weather discussion thread and not solely a model affirmation thread 

this is just a banter thread now anyways. have it at weenies, we can only ask yall so much to pull it together. 

 

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