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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Of course none of us know what will really happen when we count our chips in April.  We could get a monster storm on Feb 29th.  Especially now that we are all but giving up on 18 Jan.  For good reason of course but the models and the atmosphere is fickle.  

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I'm almost to the point of taking some time off from here for a bit. Seems like the blinds are closed for the foreseeable future. It's getting close to the point where it's just time to root for a 2016-type fluke where we get super lucky and get a monster storm and call it a winter. Probably the only way to save this winter.

I am with Bob. Disinterested at this point. I will keep a casual eye on the means, but the way the next week or so looks, I may start to root for futility lol. Probably be two thirds through met winter without breaking an inch in my yard.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So when @psuhoffman said if things still look bleak on Jan 15 it's pretty much time to pack it in and being that we are 3 days past that date and .... yeah. Has the time come?

The whole forum jumps at once?  Man the reaper would be fat like a lion who ate an elephant.  He would have to jump out of boredom. 

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So when @psuhoffman said if things still look bleak on Jan 15 it's pretty much time to pack it in and being that we are 3 days past that date and .... yeah. Has the time come?

Things look less bleak, but still not good for snow chances.

Two things of note looking at the advertised LR pattern from today's runs, subject to change ofc(for better or worse) are hints of a PNA ridge, and currently not seeing any signs of persistent SE ridge. Maybe a trend towards lower heights to our NE, but its way out there. Everything else pretty much totally sucks lol.

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Progressive pattern with no chance of locking in arctic air for any substantial amount of time, at least through the next two weeks. 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Things look less bleak, but still not good for snow chances.

Two things of note looking at the advertised LR pattern from today's runs, subject to change ofc(for better or worse) are hints of a PNA ridge, and currently not seeing any signs of persistent SE ridge. Maybe a trend towards lower heights to our NE, but its way out there. Everything else pretty much totally sucks lol.

This is one of the rare crap seasons that something is saying it isnt over. Normally I would have bailed 2 weeks ago lol. But I really think hl blocking is going to show up at the tail end and provide 1 nice storm. I really wouldnt be shocked if we wait the entire season then end the 2nd half of Feb with back to back storms. Would love a back to back holiday blitz....Valentine's and PD. :weenie:

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Seriously tho....whenever the day comes and we actually all get a warning level event again it is going to feel damn good. The waiting is the hardest part but the reward will be worth it.

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58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seriously tho....whenever the day comes and we actually all get a warning level event again it is going to feel damn good. The waiting is the hardest part but the reward will be worth it.

I'm not throwing in the towel. It's entirely possible Feb is a very good month. For the time being I'm focusing on other things though. If something real shows up I'll be right back at it. If nothing shows up I'll look forward to early spring and all the fun stuff that comes with it. From a hobbyist perspective this has been an exceptionally lame year. Hardly abnormal around here 

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26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is one of the rare crap seasons that something is saying it isnt over. Normally I would have bailed 2 weeks ago lol. But I really think hl blocking is going to show up at the tail end and provide 1 nice storm. I really wouldnt be shocked if we wait the entire season then end the 2nd half of Feb with back to back storms. Would love a back to back holiday blitz....Valentine's and PD. :weenie:

I've been feeling the same way...Of course part of that may be the "historical trend" part of me that believes in the 3-4 year rule for 1 foot snowstorms, lol But in general, it does seem like whatever we get may be in a short window or two!

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how did we get here.....we had a pattern change on the ensembles...epo ridge...mjo maybe going into phase 7-8.....how are we back to square 1?

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Let's look at the bright side:  DCA picked up 0.2 inches of snow today.  That's more snow than the winters of 72-73 and 97-98 combined!  We did it!

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I got a feeling we are going to rebound back to a good look soon...still watching next weekend lol

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16 minutes ago, Ji said:

I got a feeling we are going to rebound back to a good look soon...still watching next weekend lol

Hey, ya never know! (and I can't give up weekend either, lol)

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5 hours ago, Ji said:

Gefs looks workable thru end of run

 

Tracking low pressure areas near or along the east coast on the ens means will most likely be an exercise in frustration for the foreseeable future. While we will overall have "normal" temps, the air mass is of Pacific origin. The combo of a +AO and esp the AK vortex, will torch Canada, relatively speaking. Add in the TPV sitting in the NAO space, and any legit cold air is bottled up well north. Always possible to luck into something frozen in late Jan, but the pattern over the next 10 days, as advertised, is not favorable for snow. Pretty good for 35-40 degree rain though.

Depicted  850 temp anomalies approaching the end of the month. Still looks like crap.

1580407200-3BbrfLAmpvA.png

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6 hours ago, Ji said:

how did we get here.....we had a pattern change on the ensembles...epo ridge...mjo maybe going into phase 7-8.....how are we back to square 1?

The 'pattern change' was advertised, but the guidance in the LR didn't have it quite right apparently. We were briefly teased with good to epic looks, but once again reality is something much different. Not as bad as where we were 2-3 weeks ago, but still a generally bad look for MA snow chances. We can only hope the models are as wrong now with the currently advertised pattern. I kinda doubt that is the case though. Like Bob said, seems winter has shown its hand.

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Gefs still has a decent coastal signal for the weekend.  Eps and Geps as well to one extent or another . Details to be worked out . Hopefully the signal stays there and if things fall right maybe we see some white stuff . Sure beats tracking 50 and partly cloudy in January 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_30.png

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At the very end of the 6z GEFS run, the AK trough flattens and it looks like the beginning of another attempt to build a ridge in the EPO space. GEPS does this sooner. Something to watch.

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43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

At the very end of the 6z GEFS run, the AK trough flattens and it looks like the beginning of another attempt to build a ridge in the EPO space. GEPS does this sooner. Something to watch.

I have noticed for about a month now, both the GEFS and GEPS continue to depict a similar look to the 0z GEPS at the end of its range.  They both keep trying to take the EPO negative and place a broad trough in the east.  The EPS has bitten a few times but generally hasn't been as aggressive and has done a much better job.  For whatever reason, the EPO is resolute in wanting to remain positive.

On another forum, I went back and looked at the non-Euro ensembles and posted day after day, showing those favorable LR looks that turned out nowhere near correct as verification moved inside D10.

My guess is that we're going to end up killing H1 of Feb before the pattern becomes more favorable in general.  Obviously, you guys will have a much better shot than our area, unless we get a some sort of blocking, which seems so elusive this year.  Good thing is, the STJ remains active.  So if we just get a decent window of cold air delivery, winter storm chances will increase rapidly, especially for you all.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I have noticed for about a month now, both the GEFS and GEPS continue to depict a similar look to the 0z GEPS at the end of its range.  They both keep trying to take the EPO negative and place a broad trough in the east.  The EPS has bitten a few times but generally hasn't been as aggressive and has done a much better job.  For whatever reason, the EPO is resolute in wanting to remain positive.

On another forum, I went back and looked at the non-Euro ensembles and posted day after day, showing those favorable LR looks that turned out nowhere near correct as verification moved inside D10.

My guess is that we're going to end up killing H1 of Feb before the pattern becomes more favorable in general.  Obviously, you guys will have a much better shot than our area, unless we get a some sort of blocking, which seems so elusive this year.  Good thing is, the STJ remains active.  So if we just get a decent window of cold air delivery, winter storm chances will increase rapidly, especially for you all.

EPS still has the AK trough at the end of its run. Maybe it will begin to show some signs in the next few cycles. It's quite possible the GEFS/GEPS combo are again on the wrong track. At this point I am not too enthused about possible coastal storms producing snow over the next 10 days. Folks further inland/at elevation probably have a different perspective. Hopefully a -EPO period materializes sometime in Feb.

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Its doesn't look super torchy from now till early Feb. Looks like a near miss pattern. If I was in PA, Northern NJ, or NY, I'd see potential written all over it. Not so much here.

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4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Tracking low pressure areas near or along the east coast on the ens means will most likely be an exercise in frustration for the foreseeable future. While we will overall have "normal" temps, the air mass is of Pacific origin. The combo of a +AO and esp the AK vortex, will torch Canada, relatively speaking. Add in the TPV sitting in the NAO space, and any legit cold air is bottled up well north. Always possible to luck into something frozen in late Jan, but the pattern over the next 10 days, as advertised, is not favorable for snow. Pretty good for 35-40 degree rain though.

Depicted  850 temp anomalies approaching the end of the month. Still looks like crap.

1580407200-3BbrfLAmpvA.png

Very good explanation. And describes the reasoning behind why getting anything significant here for the next 10 days or more would be a big challenge. 
 

Let’s hope the AK vortex shuts down and ridging returns to west coast. We need the AO to be negative at some point if we’re going to score later in the season. Cold air has to rebuild back in central Canada. 

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10 hours ago, Ji said:

I got a feeling we are going to rebound back to a good look soon...still watching next weekend lol

I don't understand the weekend love.  Looks pretty dreadful to me with no chance of a reverse trend.   I don't mean to sound so negative, but this season is starting to wear on me.  I'm not giving up by any means, but having nothing to look forward to is a downer.  I have some hope for February tho.  I'll snap out of it.

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11 hours ago, Ji said:

Ggem at least gives us a chance to drive to see snow a2055133daa869a9e7a0b2ca666aa267.jpg

At least 1 model run in the past 5 days was entertaining.

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