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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Still lots to be resolved next weekend and many have canceled it already lol but love seeing coastals in the mix . Interesting tracking ahead and far from boring imo.

 

f180.gif

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still lots to be resolved next weekend and many have canceled it already lol but love seeing coastals in the mix . Interesting tracking ahead and far from boring imo.

 

f180.gif

Where’s the cold air when we need it. Just hope for a colder look going forward.

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36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still lots to be resolved next weekend and many have canceled it already lol but love seeing coastals in the mix . Interesting tracking ahead and far from boring imo.

 

f180.gif

6z gfs pops the low right over CHO and then ne from there to a position south of long island. Need the whole flow to pop south some to try and draw in whatever cold air may be available.

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I am actually liking the chances for next weekend. The gfs has started to move toward a workable solution. on a side note I broke my left arm yesterday so excuse the crappy typing over the next few weeks. I bet my typing will still be better than DT's :)

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend. The gfs has started to move toward a workable solution. on a side note I broke my left arm yesterday so excuse the crappy typing over the next few weeks. I bet my typing will still be better than DT's :)

Oof!! How'd ya do that? 

Glad I'm not alone in feeling a bit better about next weekend! Pieces seem to be moving around...maybe some baby steps towards something better the next few days? (6z GFS crushed NE, lol Since that wasn't there yesterday...and the EURO also tipping ever so slightly to a different solution...I'm still gonna keep watching! Still a ways to go, though)

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22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend.

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

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7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

I get ya...but of course you know we won't be able to help ourselves, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I get ya...but of course you know we won't be able to help ourselves, lol

That thing on the ICON is gone... less to wish for. I may actually cry...

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14 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

That thing on the ICON is gone... less to wish for. I may actually cry...

Eh.  When is the ICON worthy of its namesake.  

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12z gfs really isn't too far off from something next week. Wouldn't take much for a rain to snow type coastal storm situation. The block to the north has the potential to slow down whatever forms off the coast. There's a lot of cold to our north. If this could form a little sooner/slightly further east we'd be in business. 

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28 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

It is interesting to discuss the long range,  but you should realize that modeling,  in general,  at long leads is perilous.  The base state is a warm one so far this winter. 

Cold air masses are at best feeble.   If it were not for our hobby's purpose and never ending quest for  guidance and quest to discover the forecast beyond day 5 we would eliminate the never ending model chaos.

I think I read recently the increase in social media  sharing of models at exceptional long leads only causes further mind bending beliefs that we really know what may transpire. I tend to agree with that general idea. 

But, if you use the data wisely you can learn and move the science  forward.  Certainly modeling has improved the last few decades. On a more relevant long range note,  a quick carry over post from snowy over at 33.  

Still some hope for later in Feb though ........

 

 <<

There's been so so so many posts arguing about the MJO, but at the end of the day, if it doesn't get to the extratropics and the poles, it's impact is rather limited.

 

Again it's going to be gradual. But a positive AAM is a positive sign. Nothing definitive and no sudden equations or conclusions to be made there, but is a hopeful sign. Cautiously optimistic is the best place to be IMO.

 

>> 

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25 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

12z GFS with another coastal threat around Jan 28.  

This needs to sharpen and the low needs to start sooner. Even with a decent low, that would be a southern slider if I am reading it right

 

 

gfs_z500a_us_41.png

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8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This needs to sharpen and the low needs to start sooner. Even with a decent low, that would be a southern slider if I am reading it right

 

 

gfs_z500a_us_41.png

Is there a -NAO then?

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6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Is there a -NAO then?

Sorry posted the wrong time frame above but still no.

gfs_z500a_namer_41-1.png

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1 hour ago, frd said:

But, if you use the data wisely you can learn and move the science forward.

My goal is to learn to use the data and know what everything means and what it could (possibly) lead to. A lot of studying ahead of me, but i’m excited. 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro if anything is interesting

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

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Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern
Lol what do you see in February?
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21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro if anything is interesting

Yeah, in my mind this is worth tracking. Wouldn't take much imo to put areas north and west in the game for something. Still a week to go. Plenty of time for just about anything to happen. With all respect to Chill, he was telling us all last week to get some good sleep because by now we'd be up all night waiting for the 0z euro runs with much anticipation. Take it five days at a time in this hobby. I won't start to get depressed until we get to mid-feb without anything. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It takes a low from the panhandle of Florida straight north to northern Indiana.

Oh is that what it does? (now I don't have anything other than TT, so I had assumed that wasn't the same low, lol) What the heck?

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