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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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22 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I actually have a decent feeling about this system, although maybe that's because I'm getting over a bout of bad food poisoning. 

One thing this one shouldn't have is a lot of convection in the south, which is nice to not have to be so concerned about.  

Food poisoning sucks.

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I’m told the GFS performed relatively well with the most recent storm so the 15” of Kuchera snow here should be a lock at this point 

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30 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

I’m told the GFS performed relatively well with the most recent storm so the 15” of Kuchera snow here should be a lock at this point 

Ha.  "Relatively" is uh, a debatable word for this comment :).   Screw the models, I will believe it when it's literally snowing IMBY (Front AND Back)

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1 hour ago, RobertSul said:

I don’t think a single 10-inch storm counts as a “big East Coast storm”.

You missed the point lol. I wasnt comparing it literally (if that was the case, they wouldnt have had so many days with mood flakes). I was just generalizing that having 3 large storms and just some lake action is different than a typical year when we likely would not have had 3 large storms already but in turn would have had many more actual synoptic winter systems.

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2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Would agree this winter may resemble an East Coast winter in the fact it seems to be starting up later and we have had a few moisture laden systems. But you dont have an ocean, you dont get the bombogenesis winter storms with anywhere near the frequency as the NE

See the above post. Wasnt meant to be taken literally. Although i disagree about the starting later. This year was the earliest bout of deep winter id ever seen...and since then....blahhh.

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Where this ejects from the Rockies will be an important factor.  If it comes out around far se CO/panhandle of OK, then that would make a difference compared to farther north.

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at 12z friday GFS has 1024 mb pressure in SW SD..Euro has 999mb low there (GFS 1001 mb low in SE CO)

yet both end up with a low to mid 990's low over  SE MI  area at 12z Sat....with Euro being a tad weaker and more NW

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16 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Actually, this past decade wasn't too bad. In February 2013, we saw one of the biggest snowstorms on record for Toronto. Winter 2013-2014 was the coldest in 20 years. February 2015 was the coldest February since at least 1840 (when records began) in Toronto. 2017 saw the coldest New Years period since the late 60s. 2018 saw the coldest October-December period in Toronto since 1980. January and February 2019 saw decent amounts of snow.

I know we've all broken some nice cold and snowfall records in the last decade or two. But my post was referring to the prolonged and frequent warmups we've been seeing practically every winter. 7 out of the last 10 Decembers were warmer than normal. Both February 2017 and 2018 featured record breaking warmth. 2010-11 and 2013-14 were the only two winters in the last decade to feature consistent cold through DJF. Perhaps it could just be a temporary thing or is a result of CC. Either way its hard to deny the facts. The 90's were indifferent too. 

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48 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:
The other garbage model

snku_acc.us_mw.png

When’s the last time any system laid down a foot of snow over basically an entire state like that run does Wisconsin?

(Ignoring the run, anyone have a legit answer? Haha)

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The key will come down to the strength and placement of that arctic high to the north. GFS has a 1047mb high over the Great Lakes area Fri versus Euro which is further east and 1044mb. GFS scenario allows for a prolonged significant icing event as the shallow layer of arctic air won't push north as fast as it does on Euro. Last run of Euro before this morning had the winter precip well north. This morning's run definitely appeared colder though not as icy as GFS. Curious to see how this unfolds

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7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Ride whatever shows a rainer

It's going to rain in CHI for the rest of the winter. You should just make calls for Madison from here on out

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Virtually every CIPS analog to this event had a band of ice.

Oh there will be ice. It might be transient because the band might not be stationary.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Oh there will be ice. It might be transient because the band might not be stationary.

Yeah, should spread it around.  A good number of the analogs had 3 hours of freezing rain and some had 6 hours of freezing rain generally either side of the I-80 corridor.

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The pattern following this storm is pretty mundane. Latest GFS has a split flow look. Not the most ideal pattern for any storm for our region other than perhaps weak clippers. 

 

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If we get any snow out of this, it'll probably last five minutes before changing to sleet and freezing rain.  Northern Iowa into MN/WI is a much more favorable area.

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If we get any snow out of this, it'll probably last five minutes before changing to sleet and freezing rain.  Northern Iowa into MN/WI is a much more favorable area.

Even though the GFS is showing it staying snow for a decent amount of time, I don't like that setup to stay snow as long with southerly flow at 850 mb for a while. Would think the thermal profiles would verify warmer than modeled in medium range and it would be more of brief snow to sleet and freezing rain here. The surface may be more conducive to staying colder with the departing Arctic high influence and winds more east southeast.  

 

Need changes in the mid-level pattern to feel better about a snowier outcome locally.

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Even though the GFS is showing it staying snow for a decent amount of time, I don't like that setup to stay snow as long with southerly flow at 850 mb for a while. Would think the thermal profiles would verify warmer than modeled in medium range and it would be more of brief snow to sleet and freezing rain here. The surface may be more conducive to staying colder with the departing Arctic high influence and winds more east southeast.  

 

Need changes in the mid-level pattern to feel better about a snowier outcome locally.

 

 

 

 

 

What are your thoughts on the icing potential in IL? GFS has a wide swath of ice

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23 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Even though the GFS is showing it staying snow for a decent amount of time, I don't like that setup to stay snow as long with southerly flow at 850 mb for a while. Would think the thermal profiles would verify warmer than modeled in medium range and it would be more of brief snow to sleet and freezing rain here. The surface may be more conducive to staying colder with the departing Arctic high influence and winds more east southeast.  

 

Need changes in the mid-level pattern to feel better about a snowier outcome locally.

 

 

 

 

 

Seems pretty bullish on evap cooling to maintain snow longer in N IL, but yeah, that looks a little precarious.  

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What are your thoughts on the icing potential in IL? GFS has a wide swath of ice
Looks like a decent icing setup for a time because of the position of the high pressure off to the east and warm front stays south. Your east southeast wind trajectories are pulling from lower dew point air off to the east which would help with evaporative/wet bulb cooling. I do wonder if with that exact setup shown on GFS the surface warming would occur quicker once wind goes more southeast due to lack of any snow cover over the region.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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