• Member Statistics

    15,845
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ianspace
    Newest Member
    ianspace
    Joined
Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

Recommended Posts

The precip amounts + snow amounts together for certain areas are kinda crazy. If only all three inches of the precip would be snow...:blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

emoji817.png

What a tough forecast. So many intricacies to it that we won't have a really good handle on probably til Thursday. I'm not doing the grids and AFD for the storm tonight but we're in good hands with my colleague who is taking it on.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Pretty wild run for parts of the area.  As far as ORD, that much rain and that much snow is not easy to pull off in the same storm. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty wild run for parts of the area.  As far as ORD, that much rain and that much snow is not easy to pull off in the same storm. 

So naturally, it will fall as all snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

So naturally, it will fall as all snow.

If only... move over 1967 lol.  Unfortunately this isn't the one to break that total.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, mimillman said:

Not a bad idea

hanging out under the L tracks by the dumpsters, “checking the 700-420mb ΔTʜᴄ”

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’ll be interesting to watch how guidance trends, with how the main wave is being handled now.


.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going to be checking in for that SE trend...fingers crossed. Either way enjoy tracking this one today boys

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’ll be interesting to watch how guidance trends, with how the main wave is being handled now.


.

At this point LOT doesnt seem to give NAM solution much weight. Low probability of heavy ice accretion due to several factors. Heavier precip rates, possible convective element producing sleet, wet bulb temps 28-30F and latent heat making it less likely. Looked for lighter ice accums far NW. Low confidence in deformation band swinging through Sat with snow but kept it as possible. Only thing that seems locked in is a lot of cold rain

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

miss south with heavy rain, miss nw with snow, worst of both worlds solutions proliferating lately

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NAM continuing the trend of slower and more digging into MX of the main wave.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

miss south with heavy rain, miss nw with snow, worst of both worlds solutions proliferating lately

You are like the opposite of the LR GFS lol. Alex long range forecasting for Chicago would be about 10 dabs for the entire winter. :P You know chicago will probably get some snow with this.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z NAM continuing the trend of slower and more digging into MX of the main wave.


.

Respectable defo band shown on the backside with it still snowing in N IL at the end of the run. 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notice how the high ice shield is continuously moving East on guidance as models slowly trend towards more reasonable amounts given the extremely marginal thermals. I anticipate that high ice shield keeps moving East until it’s gone 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it.

The GEM and Euro have also been putting out high ice amounts.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Notice how the high ice shield is continuously moving East on guidance as models slowly trend towards more reasonable amounts given the extremely marginal thermals. I anticipate that high ice shield keeps moving East until it’s gone 

You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am!

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The GEM and Euro have also been putting out high ice amounts.


.

Yes, but nothing compared to the numbers on the NAM. Even the LOT AFD acknowledged this was likely erroneous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am!

Beats trying to guess the next positive pattern change over and over again

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am!

I’ll be skiing in Colorado, so bring it on

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

You getting hyped to watch woodstock get buried while we watch pingers try to accumulate over 1" of standing water? I know I am!

Models showing a the changeover zone basically directly overhead for mby. N half of DKB county buried, S half rainer. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Models showing a the changeover zone basically directly overhead for mby. N half of DKB county buried, S half rainer. 

Will send pics

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While a primarily rain event is very much in the cards with a painful miss just north/northwest, it's still well within the envelope of possibility for the deformation snows to nail much of the Chicago metro at this range, particularly I-55 and northwest. As has already been mentioned, there have been important changes in the handling of the southern wave. Also, convection has been known to mess with mass fields of systems, along with the possibility of robbing some of the moisture transport. And there will be a ton of convection south of here with this system.

 

There very well could be an area of warning criteria ice somewhere in interior northern Illinois. However, as laid out in Carlaw's AFD, there are so many points of uncertainty with that aspect of forecast 3 days out. There's reason to doubt huge ice accums with very heavy precip rates forecast, and possibility convection causes more sleet. That said, with the strengthening northerly winds Friday night into Saturday, it won't take huge ice accums to cause significant issues with falling tree limbs and power outages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it.

True....We were on the freezing rain side of GHD Chicago Blizzard.   They issued an icestorm warning and Kasich, (who was our gov at the time), held an emergency new conference to warn of the impending ice disaster.    As the rain moved in we started getting some accretion the first hour or two...after that the rain got heavy and in spite of the below freezing temps the heavy rain killed the icestorm.   The best icestorms happen with prolonged light rain.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models are gradually moving away from a significant storm for Iowa.  The ICON had been very robust for eastern Iowa, but now it's just a brief whitening late Friday and then nothing.  The timing of the waves is becoming less favorable.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.