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George BM

January Banter 2020

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Why do you assume that just because I am not making a ton of posts whining and complaining that I am not frustrated?   Of course I am frustrated when its not snowing!  Just because I don't make 5 posts a day whining about our lack of snow doesn't mean I am not frustrated.  

Let me summarize what our "normal" climo is and then I am done and you can believe whatever you want to believe.  To get a "snowy" winter we basically need one of 2 very anomalous patterns to be dominant at some point in the winter.  Either an EPO/PNA combo ridge like 2003/2014/2015 or an NAO block like 1996/2010.  But those 2 patterns are NOT normal...they are not likely to dominate most years.  They happen about 25% of the time.  The other 75% of the time we get years where the base state sucks for snow and we have to hope to scrap and claw and get lucky that maybe we get a 1-2 week window and score some snow but odds are it will mostly suck. 

Those years will range from total dumpster fire no snow at all to if we really get lucky end up near average.  Years like 2000 and 2002 highlight the difference.  2000 we only had a one week window all winter that was a favorable pattern...and we got hit 3 times...by all 3 threats the entire winter!  2002 there was a really good blocking period in late December into early January...but one storm got suppressed and hit NC and another was just slightly too warm and hit just NW of us...and then the last threat was kinda weak sauce and only ended up a 2-3" snow (the only snow all winter).  But had 1-2 of those threats in that window hit 2002 would be like 2000.  Had the one really big storm in 2000 missed...we would remember that like 2002.  Look at this year...there was a wave mid December that sheared out...had that amplified a little big we all get a decent snowstorm.  Early January if it was just a couple degrees colder DC gets 3-5".  This weekend...had the STJ wave timed up a little better maybe DC gets a decent snowstorm.  Bad luck might make this year a total dumpster fire vs just a typical bad year where DC gets 8" but the bottom like is this year fits into that 75% of the time where we DONT get a -NAO or EPO/PNA ridge.  

What I think some take issue with wrt your posts...is that you act like EVERY winter other than 2000/2003/2010/2014/2015 are TOTAL CRAP.  You acted like 2018 was garbage but your area finished above normal that year.   You complained in 2016 because the HECS dry slotted you but you still ended up near average on snowfall that winter.   You act like its not normal...but you say that 75% of the time!  Obviously if something happens 75% of the time IT IS NORMAL!!!  I am NOT saying it doesn't suck or isnt frustrating...just that getting not a lot of snow around here isnt abnormal.  

Thanks for the summary, and I did actually read your classroom instruction so I know what you are saying about it generally being a bad setup and us lucking our way into snow.

I think where I depart from the general consensus is when you start calling the last 4 years normal or standard climo. I don't see how a historically bad run can be anything but historically bad. I am not really sure why I even get push back on this. Its kind of strange.

I don't think those other years are necessarily bad, but we've just had bad luck recently with either nothing or March meltathons padding numbers (which I prefer didn't happen). Yes, Delaware has been above average the last couple years in a technical sense. But we shutout our prime climo and the birds where singing and the sun angle was glaring when we got our snow.

I know your thinking "March snow counts". Got it. But I'd take 2 inches in January over 10 inches in March any day. That's just me. March is springtime. March is "ah what could have been if this happened in Jan or Feb". Sick of it. If we cant get a single flake during our prime climo, it shouldn't suddenly become easy in March. Its frustrating. I REALLY hope this "winter" comes to a close March 1st.

On the Blizzard, no doubt if you got 11 inches and your neighbors got 40 inches, you'd be massively disappointed too.  Its just how it is. Yeah, that was a great snowstorm. I'll admit that, but we sure paid a lot for our 11 inches.

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19 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks for the summary, and I did actually read your classroom instruction so I know what you are saying about it generally being a bad setup and us lucking our way into snow.

I think where I depart from the general consensus is when you start calling the last 4 years normal or standard climo. I don't see how a historically bad run can be anything but historically bad. I am not really sure why I even get push back on this. Its kind of strange.

I don't think those other years are necessarily bad, but we've just had bad luck recently with either nothing or March meltathons padding numbers (which I prefer didn't happen). Yes, Delaware has been above average the last couple years in a technical sense. But we shutout our prime climo and the birds where singing and the sun angle was glaring when we got our snow.

I know your thinking "March snow counts". Got it. But I'd take 2 inches in January over 10 inches in March any day. That's just me. March is springtime. March is "ah what could have been if this happened in Jan or Feb". Sick of it. If we cant get a single flake during our prime climo, it shouldn't suddenly become easy in March. Its frustrating. I REALLY hope this "winter" comes to a close March 1st.

On the Blizzard, no doubt if you got 11 inches and your neighbors got 40 inches, you'd be massively disappointed too.  Its just how it is. Yeah, that was a great snowstorm. I'll admit that, but we sure paid a lot for our 11 inches.

Northern DE averages 6 inches in Jan- 20 for the winter.  You have had above normal snowfall 6 of the past 7 winters.  Who cares if it didn't happen in January?  No rule it has to happen that way.  There is no historically bad run

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I sold my car to Carvana this morning  - can't say enough good things about the ease of the process if anyone is ever considering the same with them.  They came to the house to get the car & the whole process took less than 20 minutes.  They offered me considerably more than the dealer for my new car (no surprise really) & their offer is actually above the KBB.  

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Imagine writing post after post saying the same thing and being more wordy every time.  Find a new hobby.

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Heading up to Snowshoe for the weekend.  Might be my first and last chance to see some decent snow this season.  Although even there the forecast isn’t wintry.  

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17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I sold my car to Carvana this morning  - can't say enough good things about the ease of the process if anyone is ever considering the same with them.  They came to the house to get the car & the whole process took less than 20 minutes.  They offered me considerably more than the dealer for my new car (no surprise really) & their offer is actually above the KBB.  

Wondered if the whole Carvana thing was legit. Now -- did they A. give you several giant coins, and are you B. taking your giant coins to go to the Carvana mothership to put into the giant vending machine and choose your new car?

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17 minutes ago, H2O said:

Imagine writing post after post saying the same thing and being more wordy every time.  Find a new hobby.

That could apply to more than one person 

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2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Wondered if the whole Carvana thing was legit. Now -- did they A. give you several giant coins, and are you B. taking your giant coins to go to the Carvana mothership to put into the giant vending machine and choose your new car?

:lol:  I jokingly asked the guy if they were giving me a check or just a bag of coins for the car.  He wasn't enthused as I bet he gets that question (joke?) a lot.  I can't comment on if buying a car from them is legit though since I purchased from a dealer but the selling process was a breeze.  

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That could apply to more than one person 

Sure.  but which ones make you more informed vs which ones are like dragging a cat and claws across a chalkboard a mile long.  The latter is what i'm referring to.

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12 minutes ago, H2O said:

Sure.  but which ones make you more informed vs which ones are like dragging a cat and claws across a chalkboard a mile long.  The latter is what i'm referring to.

My mother used to inform me over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. She was right the first time but.......

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31 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I think we need to start rooting for an epic fail season.  When we started doing that last winter, we suddenly had opportunities in March.

I bumped the futility thread 10 days ago for a reason...

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I sold my car to Carvana this morning  - can't say enough good things about the ease of the process if anyone is ever considering the same with them.  They came to the house to get the car & the whole process took less than 20 minutes.  They offered me considerably more than the dealer for my new car (no surprise really) & their offer is actually above the KBB.  

good to know!

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Let’s just all agree. The last 4 years have been awful, unheard of. A snow drought that will live in infamy. Can we agree? Please? So that this mind numbing, ball shriveling debate can STOP!

Thanks

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let’s just all agree. The last 4 years have been awful, unheard of. A snow drought that will live in infamy. Can we agree? Please? So that this mind numbing, ball shriveling debate can STOP!

Thanks

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

nah, lets drag it out 10 more pages

 

... so normal, what is normal? 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let’s just all agree. The last 4 years have been awful, unheard of. A snow drought that will live in infamy. Can we agree? Please? So that this mind numbing, ball shriveling debate can STOP!

Thanks

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

God I'm slow. Kept seeing you pop up today and all I could think of, 'Who's this new dude/dudette?' Finally dawned on me just this minute what was going on. :lol:

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I mean, I'm not sure where the debate is...it has been kind of bad. I guess the debate has been about just HOW bad (i.e. this period vs 1988-1992 or 1970-1977

But really...I just wanna know why some of us are this way. I guess speaking for myself, I'm not at a point in life yet where I can easily put my focus elsewhere for the same (or greater) level of happiness...so during DJF snow becomes that thing. And whether expectations are high or low, I am still depressed when it doesn't come (and downright upset when we just miss). Snow=something exciting to look forward to. So when it doesn't come (and moving somewhere else or traveling for snow ain't in the cards atm), it kinda darkens the days a bit.

And yet, for all of us, we somehow find other things during non-winter months, so that disappointment doesn't even come up. 

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Sounds like the flowering trees have a chance to pop way too early this year again - last time that happened it turned super cold in March and murdered their normal beauty. I think that was the March 2017 debacle after it was so damn warm that February.

Boo. Do not want.

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sounds like the flowering trees have a chance to pop way too early this year again - last time that happened it turned super cold in March and murdered their normal beauty. I think that was the March 2017 debacle after it was so damn warm that February.

Boo. Do not want.

Yup I’ve had this thought already. My tulip magnolia buds are clearly growing already. Don’t want them to flower until mid March or after, but could be mid February at this rate.

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58 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let’s just all agree. The last 4 years have been awful, unheard of. A snow drought that will live in infamy. Can we agree? Please? So that this mind numbing, ball shriveling debate can STOP!

Thanks

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

But, but I can't. I got on the other side of the wall in Dec 2018! But 2016/2017 and 2019/2020 (so far) have been stinkers!

2016/2017    6.4

2017/2018   21.5

2018/2019  35.2

2019/2020   3.5

 

historical avg is 27.6 inches

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58 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

God I'm slow. Kept seeing you pop up today and all I could think of, 'Who's this new dude/dudette?' Finally dawned on me just this minute what was going on. :lol:

Yeah, I killed him.

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup I’ve had this thought already. My tulip magnolia buds are clearly growing already. Don’t want them to flower until mid March or after, but could be mid February at this rate.

Yup. My tulip trees are gonna be hella at risk with regard to an early bud again.

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5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

We don't have a single low below freezing in the forecast for the next 10 days

Ill take that bet :D

19 here this am . Felt like winter 

Tonight should be well below freezing as well .

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ill take that bet :D

19 here this am . Felt like winter 

Tonight should be well below freezing as well .

Decent winter day today.  24 this morning, 37 now. With the mid cloud deck, I could almost imagine a bit of snow moving in...back to the real world.

It will dip below freezing tonight, but beyond that, he may be right. Pretty damn mild for the next week or so.

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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Decent winter day today.  24 this morning, 37 now. With the mid cloud deck, I could almost imagine a bit of snow moving in...back to the real world.

It will dip below freezing tonight, but beyond that, he may be right. Pretty damn mild for the next week or so.

Next Thursday/Fri/Sat mornings look to have a good chance as well ...but this...talking exact temps at range is silly :axe:

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Next Thursday/Fri/Sat mornings look to have a good chance as well ...but this...talking exact temps at range is silly :axe:

It is somewhat sadly hilarious that we are reduced to hoping for a below freezing morning low at some point in the next 10 days in...late January/early February.

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I bumped the futility thread 10 days ago for a reason...

If spring is pretty much here I wish I didn't get that 2" a few weeks ago. It definitely messed up a good futility record. March snow sucks 95% of the time. Usually white rain. N&W can keep that slop. I want to get my potatoes in early this year and beat the potato beetles that will be out in full force since we didn't have a winter.

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