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George BM

January Banter 2020

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7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Maybe it was 2017?

It happened. I know all too well because it was a twice a day thing for me to go to the park with hot water in buckets pouring it on the ice so the fish would survive and the water was like 2 feet deep. I kept wondering when the cold would end.

But we got no snow. I even remember Bob Chill saying "bad pattern for snow" when it was like a 1 in 30 year deep freeze. Cold is not always the answer. There are 100 looks that don't work and 1 or 2 that do.

There is plenty of data online to look back at the daily highs of any station that keeps records. I can assure you, the coastal plain and even the Piedmont in the mid-Atlantic did not have multiple weeks of highs in the teens in January 2018. Yes, the month started very cold, but it wasn’t a relentless deep freeze. It wasn’t 2017 either since that was an awfully warm winter.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

@Fozz...good to see u ...hope you're doing well!

Thanks! I’m doing quite well, and I’ll be back at my old home for the weekend.

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30 minutes ago, Fozz said:

There is plenty of data online to look back at the daily highs of any station that keeps records. I can assure you, the coastal plain and even the Piedmont in the mid-Atlantic did not have multiple weeks of highs in the teens in January 2018. Yes, the month started very cold, but it wasn’t a relentless deep freeze. It wasn’t 2017 either since that was an awfully warm winter.

Okay, well it was definitely a 1 in 30 year type cold. Didn't crack freezing for a very long stretch. I don't remember the exact numbers. I remember it being snowless though. Then the pattern changed and we rained.

Cold doesn't always=snow.

 

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He exaggerated the cold but his point is true. In 2017/18 we had a period from Dec 26-Jan 15 well below normal temps and away from the immediate coast it did very few any good wrt snow. It’s was a very dry period. I was below freezing that entire 3 week stretch and had like 4” from 3 minor events to show for it.  And that isn’t the only such period. We have had other extended cold dry stretches. Since we aren’t a cold location that’s not common but it’s not a crazy anomaly. And we have had a lot of warm wet patterns that didn’t produce any snow. 

Truth is we need cold AND precip to get snow. They are equally important. From a long distance yes cold seems a better play because cold dry is numerically less likely than warm. But once a pattern is staring us in the face and it’s obvious it’s a dry suppressed one the whole “at least it’s cold” thing doesn’t bring me any comfort. 

Now some like cold. That’s totally ok. But if you like snow and don’t care about the thermometer than there are certain pattern markers we need within a cold look to get snow. 

 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But once a pattern is staring us in the face and it’s obvious it’s a dry suppressed one the whole “at least it’s cold” thing doesn’t bring me any comfort. 

I still think we are in a  pattern that supports cold dry and warm wet. I know you said previously  it is not really a pattern. But, to me how you get there is the same.  Fast progressive flow,  fast Pac jet, no upstream blocking and hence storms cut to the NW and we repeat over and over.  Cold invades but does not last long. Now, with Canada warming we may not even experience that,  as it warms so much there is little back and forth.  With our luck wishing for precip/moisture does little good as it only supports rain. 

We might even get a BM storm, but  without any  real cold it simply rains in the heart of winter. The new era. 

This same issue plagued us last winter as well. But because at times the cold lingered longer, and we had a period where the pattern was more conducive, we did get more snow. ( Where this winter ends snow-wise who knows ) Not worth the time to dig into it yet.  But, if we score big between Feb 20 and March 20th all the failures may be forgotten. Ha ha - who am I kidding. 

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3 hours ago, mappy said:

I love you guys, but god damn did this thread become a depressing sick ward where everyone is mumbling "just end it already!" while the grim reaper waits in the hallway. 

find the panic room, fill out a lease. Or even the banter thread for that matter. 

I posted in the wrong thread last night. Mea culpa.

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1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Okay, well it was definitely a 1 in 30 year type cold. Didn't crack freezing for a very long stretch. I don't remember the exact numbers. I remember it being snowless though. Then the pattern changed and we rained.

Cold doesn't always=snow.

Yeah it was a miserable stretch, especially with that triple phaser barely scraping us but burying the same places as the Boxing Day storm.

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21 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah it was a miserable stretch, especially with that triple phaser barely scraping us but burying the same places as the Boxing Day storm.

And see that's what makes the last two winters more depressing...that close miss! Had we gotten that one...or even the one in December 2018 that just missed...we wouldn't be in such a snow drought right now, smh

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If an mjo plot could talk....caption this 

4F8563FA-C6A4-498E-8C3E-74855B668FA5.gif.b48e9869bdba35d6033eee23d6388745.gif

 

FEDD6799-B4CD-431D-ABBF-5A5B6BBBCAFB.gif

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I posted in the wrong thread last night. Mea culpa.

ha, you were not the first, or even the last to post banter in that thread. just doing your duty ;) 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He was flipping off the MJO forecast.

Pretty appropriate response.

sorry, gotta keep things a little PG. he can find another way to express his displeasure

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If an mjo plot could talk....caption this 

4F8563FA-C6A4-498E-8C3E-74855B668FA5.gif.b48e9869bdba35d6033eee23d6388745.gif

It is either the Homer retreating into the bush gif, or grandpa Simpson seeing Bart at the entry of the burlesque club.  Probably the latter.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

sorry, gotta keep things a little PG. he can find another way to express his displeasure

I think you missed the context, but ok.

Why PG anyway? We have 13 year olds up in here?

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

Also, can we avoid giant emoticons flipping people off, thanks in advance. @jaydreb

my fault..I set that one up posting that MJO plot clearly telling our winter to bleep off... and asking people to caption it...  That was kind of exactly what I was thinking too

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

my fault..I set that one up posting that MJO plot clearly telling our winter to bleep off... and asking people to caption it...  That was kind of exactly what I was thinking too

lol I was looking for one of those F U memes when he posted that.

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2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Okay, well it was definitely a 1 in 30 year type cold. Didn't crack freezing for a very long stretch. I don't remember the exact numbers. I remember it being snowless though. Then the pattern changed and we rained.

Cold doesn't always=snow.

 

You are likely thinking about the last week of Dec. 2017 into the first week of Jan. 2018.  IMBY I recorded 6 days with highs below 20 ... 5 of them occurred between Jan 1 -7.  One was on New Years Eve.  I remained below freezing from Dec. 26 through Jan.8 which was an incredible stretch of below freezing weather.  My lowest high temp was on Jan. 5 with a high of 13...Jan. 6 made it to 14......After the 8th things moderated and Jan. 2018 ended up +1.8F overall.

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11 minutes ago, mappy said:

sorry, gotta keep things a little PG. he can find another way to express his displeasure

OK, sorry.  I was trying to caption what the MJO plot was saying to us but will tone it down.  

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He exaggerated the cold but his point is true. In 2017/18 we had a period from Dec 26-Jan 15 well below normal temps and away from the immediate coast it did very few any good wrt snow. It’s was a very dry period. I was below freezing that entire 3 week stretch and had like 4” from 3 minor events to show for it.  And that isn’t the only such period. We have had other extended cold dry stretches. Since we aren’t a cold location that’s not common but it’s not a crazy anomaly. And we have had a lot of warm wet patterns that didn’t produce any snow. 

Truth is we need cold AND precip to get snow. They are equally important. From a long distance yes cold seems a better play because cold dry is numerically less likely than warm. But once a pattern is staring us in the face and it’s obvious it’s a dry suppressed one the whole “at least it’s cold” thing doesn’t bring me any comfort. 

Now some like cold. That’s totally ok. But if you like snow and don’t care about the thermometer than there are certain pattern markers we need within a cold look to get snow. 

 

It didn't stretch to Jan. 15.  We had temps in the upper 50s from Jan. 11 - 13th.  40s on the 9th and 10th.

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5 minutes ago, Sparky said:

You are likely thinking about the last week of Dec. 2017 into the first week of Jan. 2018.  IMBY I recorded 6 days with highs below 20 ... 5 of them occurred between Jan 1 -7.  One was on New Years Eve.  I remained below freezing from Dec. 26 through Jan.8 which was an incredible stretch of below freezing weather.  My lowest high temp was on Jan. 5 with a high of 13...Jan. 6 made it to 14......After the 8th things moderated and Jan. 2018 ended up +1.8F overall.

Yep, that's it, thanks!

It was great if you like high heating bills. But that's about it.

 

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you missed the context, but ok.

Why PG anyway? We have 13 year olds up in here?

 

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol I was looking for one of those F U memes when he posted that.

 

Just now, jaydreb said:

OK, sorry.  I was trying to caption what the MJO plot was saying to us but will tone it down.  

100% sure you can express displeasure without posting a middle finger emoticon. 

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14 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

At this point I am content with a chase or two more in upstate NY/Vermont to get my snow and rooting for DC to come in under 3 inches for the season.

Then they will officially have the worst 4 year stretch of snow since recording keeping began and we can no longer say
 

"This is normal".

you should go read the "would these storms even work today" thread.  Some good discussion about how our climo is changing.  Especially the discussion yesterday between myself, Isotherm, and Frd.  

Basically... our winter's are becoming more extreme in both directions.  We are tending to "hit it big" more often when we do get a conducive pattern...but spending more time in bad patterns.  To get cold we almost need an extremely anomalous EPO or NAO pattern anymore.  Anything else and we end up warm.  It's a lot harder for us to luck our way into decent snowfall in a "meh" pattern anymore.  We spend long periods in awful no hope patterns...then hit it really big in years where we get either a dominant EPO or NAO ridge.  

The result is that while our "avg" isnt changing much...how we get that avg is.  We end up with more really bad years... but also more really good years.  For some places far enough north to end up on the right side of the thermal boundary the tendency for more juiced up systems due to the increased baroclinicity from warming in winter is actually increasing their snowfall avg.  But we are right along the edge of where it typically can get cold enough to snow...so for us its not as helpful as we are getting more big snowstorms...but spending more years in total crap patterns and getting almost no snow.  

Since there is likely a limit to how big storms can really get...if the warming continues and we spend more and more time in bad patterns and are able to luck our way to less and less snow in "not ideal" patterns...out avg will likely continue to drop.  

But I guess my point is...that is the normal now.  It's been happening for long enough now and makes sense given the changing climate regime that its not likely a fluke that is going to just turn around.  

So any short period that doesn't include one of our "big years" is likely to be "the worst stretch ever" because 30/50/100 years ago DC had a colder climate and was able to luck its way to a few small to medium snowfalls in a not perfect pattern.  That is becoming harder and harder to do...so we either with a ton of snow in a perfect pattern...or very very little in everything else.  That is the new normal.  

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3 minutes ago, Sparky said:

It didn't stretch to Jan. 15.  We had temps in the upper 50s from Jan. 11 - 13th.  40s on the 9th and 10th.

Thanks... that was the stretch I was remembering though, just thought it went to mid month..probably felt longer than it was because it was torture being so freaking cold with no appreciable snow.  

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