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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I wonder if it will just continue with the chilly dull blah punctuated by drenching rain. At this point a torch would be a change of pace. 

yeah last 2 days have been awful-cloudy and 40...stale used up airmass

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Dry also this month... The 1.86" of precip. here will be the 3rd lowest past 40 years.

I wonder if this is a portent for a very dry very hot summer with a strong SE Ridge.  I thought that was going to wait until 2021 when we reach the peak of the 11 year cycle, but it may start a year early and we could have two back to back very hot and very dry summers.

 

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Slightly cooler air has now moved into the region. Nevertheless, temperatures will generally run somewhat above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC into the start of February.

Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely. Moreover, the cold could be transient.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

During the weekend, a storm moving offshore will likely intensify rapidly as it moves into the waters off New England. The area with the highest chance of receiving at least a light snowfall will be eastern New England. There remains some uncertainty about the storm's track.

Based on the latest guidance, the likely seasonal snowfall distribution through January 31, will be < 20" at Boston; < 6" at New York City; < 3" at Philadelphia; and, < 2" at Washington, DC. There were 5 prior cases that met the above criteria for seasonal snowfall through January 31: 1895-96, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1949-50, and 1972-73. The single case with a colder than normal January (1895-96) saw 43.0" snow in the February-April period in New York City. All of the remaining four cases, all of which had a warmer than normal January, had less than 12.0" (mean: 4.6"; median 2.8"). Should blocking largely fail to develop in February, the risk of the very low snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-20 would increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +8.72 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.127.

Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 5. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the first days of February, but the strong Wave 2 activity has increased the risk of warming that could propagate downward. 

On January 27, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.568 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.448.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record.

The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

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7 minutes ago, doncat said:

Lots of low clouds last few days keeping temps  up at night...Another crud day with a 44/35 temp split.

This month and probably Feb are extended Marches essentially.

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The last 3 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.2[39.6].        January should end at  +6.8[39.2].        The first 13 days of February are averaging(0Z, GFS)36degs., or 3degs. AN.     2" of Snow this weekend.   EURO is just ugly and the CMC has snow where the GFS has T in the 50's.      The (06Z GFS) is averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN with no snow until the 12th.

34* here at 6am.        33* by 8am.         40* by 2pm.       42* was high at 4pm.

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Most stations around the region will finish with the top 5 warmest January minimum temperatures on record.

Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1937 25 0
2 1990 24 0
- 1932 24 0
3 2002 21 0
- 1993 21 0
- 1953 21 0
4 2020 20 3
- 1949 20 0

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1990 21 0
2 1993 18 0
3 2020 16 3
4 2002 15 0
- 1998 15 0
Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1932 16 0
2 1990 12 0
3 1937 11 0
4 1953 10 0
- 1913 10 0
5 2020 7 3
Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2002 11 0
2 1990 10 0
- 1960 10 0
3 1953 9 0
4 2001 7 0
5 1993 6 0
6 2020 5 3
- 1980 5 0
Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature
Missing Count
1 2002 22 0
2 1932 18 0
3 1953 15 0
- 1937 15 0
4 2020 14 3
- 1990 14 0
- 1949 14 0

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1937 25 0
2 1953 23 0
- 1932 23 0
3 1993 22 0
- 1913 22 0
4 2006 20 0
- 2002 20 0
- 1990 20 0
- 1950 20 0
5 2020 19 3

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1949 22 0
2 1953 21 0
3 2020 17 3
- 1960 17 0
- 1950 17 0
Time Series Summary for STATE COLLEGE, PA - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2006 18 0
2 1990 17 0
3 1953 16 0
- 1932 16 0
4 1950 15 0
- 1937 15 1
5 2020 13 3

 

Time Series Summary for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1937 29 0
2 1990 26 0
3 2006 25 0
- 1953 25 0
- 1932 25 0
4 1913 24 0
5 2020 23 3
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12 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

3 days of mid 50s next week??

Let’s stick a fork in this winter already enough with this garbage

Just enough already

I am also frustrated with this garbage winter thus far.   But ..not willing to throw white flag  up until March 15 ..after that date ..yes you can get snow but for coasties and city unless its a night time event  or a huge storm bringing in its own cold air gonna be a sloppy mess of a storm. Sooo lets wait and see what happens..

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15 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Bet it will be tough to change this pattern as well....if so, expect a blowtorch in Feb just like Jan

This will be the winter where the pattern change never came although we still have some time.

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18 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We have had it before. Just stinks this will hopefully be my last in this area. We will see

I wish I can move but I have a good job in the city.

I would definitely  move to  Syracuse burbs.

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Snowfall has been a challenge last 2 winters with such a strong ridge stuck north of Hawaii. 
 

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B7903F3E-FA06-4758-A78A-7BA2FAE9A794.gif.e7b25bf7947473be262b4007bc3417b6.gif

 

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Too much to fix in the short to medium term.   Let's hope we can get a lucky storm or two.  (and also hope the pattern doesn't change around 4/1)

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I wish I can move but I have a good job in the city.

I would definitely  move to  Syracuse burbs.

Eh I’ve thought about staying here but based on cost of living even making less, lifestyle is far better elsewhere. See what the earliest you can leave and collect some pension. But I just really hate our springs and cost of living. My goal is New England, upstate, or south. Right now south is winning, especially since we do travel a lot. 

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What will very likely become the 9th warmest January on record in New York City is now concluding. February will start mild with the first week of the month winding up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. In addition, little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC into at least the middle of the first week of February.

Colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

During the coming weekend, a storm moving offshore will likely intensify rapidly as it moves into the waters off New England. However, little or no snow is likely for the New York City area.

Based on the latest guidance, the likely seasonal snowfall distribution through January 31, will be < 20" at Boston; < 6" at New York City; < 3" at Philadelphia; and, < 2" at Washington, DC. There were 5 prior cases that met the above criteria for seasonal snowfall through January 31: 1895-96, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1949-50, and 1972-73. The single case with a colder than normal January (1895-96) saw 43.0" snow in the February-April period in New York City. All of the remaining four cases, all of which had a warmer than normal January, had less than 12.0" (mean: 4.6"; median 2.8"). Should blocking largely fail to develop in February, the risk of the very low snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-20 would increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +11.78 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.014.

Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 6. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through at least late in the first week of February, but the strong Wave 2 activity has increased the risk of warming that could propagate downward. 

On January 28, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.800 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.568.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.1° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record.

The evolution of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Below normal snowfall is increasingly likely during February.

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Updated thoughts posted in my outlook thread [essentially a rehash / recapitulation of 2 weeks ago - no material changes in thinking]:

 

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The last 2 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.0[39.4].        January should end at  +6.8[39.2].

The first 15 days of February are averaging {06Z, GFS) 37degs., or about 4degs. AN.       There are about 5 or 6 '50-Degree Days' possible before any turn to 'cold'.       The run does include the mandatory snow----this time about 11" between the 11th---14th period.      The first 50 days of calendar winter will have been wasted by that time.    EURO is a horror, and the CMC has an 1" of snow this weekend before torching.

Will it be 5 50-Degree Days or 5"+ of Snow during the next 15 days?   (start throwing the darts)

28* here at 6am.          27* at 7am.        35* by 11am.      37* by 1pm.      40* by 2:30pm.

Winter to Date     From Dec. 01   +3.8      From Dec. 22    +7.3         Record for Dec. 01(full winter) is +6.4[41.5] compliments of 2001-02.     We are Top Ten material, since 10th. Place is a mere +3.0.

FLASH:   The 12Z GFS has 8 '50-Degree Days' coming up.     Darned if it doesn't reach 60.     Going to bust out and head for an All Time warm February.     First 15 days of February are now averaging 42degs., or 9degs. AN and w/o snow.

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A remarkable shift to extreme winter warmth since December 2015. This will be the 11th warmer than average winter month in NYC out of the last 14. Monthly warmest records were set in December 2015 and February 2018. February 2017 was 2nd warmest and January 2017 was 11th warmest. January 2020 is currently 8th warmest on record.

NYC

Dec 15...+13.3...#1 

Jan 16....+1.9

Feb 16....+2.4

Dec 16...+0.8

Jan 17...+5.4...#12

Feb 17...+6.3...#2

Dec 17...-2.5

Jan 18...-0.9

Feb 18...+6.7..#1

Dec..18..+2.6

Jan...19..-0.1

Feb...19..+0.9

Dec...19..+0.8

Jan...20...+6.8.....#8 so far

 

 

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Just wait till that extreme winter warmth shows up in the summer. We're due for another record breaking July/August heat wave/s. 

Also expect 60s early Feb.

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just wait till that extreme winter warmth shows up in the summer. We're due for another record breaking July/August heat wave/s. 

Also expect 60s early Feb.

Based on what science or your imagination?

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9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Based on what science or your imagination?

Euro's got 50's next week-we all know how these warmups over perform.

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8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Based on what science or your imagination?

It is too soon to forecast our summer but looking at the southern hemisphere summer, our current positive sea surface anomalies, a new record low arctic sea ice season already being forecast, and how influential the west Atlantic ridge continues to be it would not surprise me if this summer wound up +1 to +3 at the point.

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52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro's got 50's next week-we all know how these warmups over perform.

I'd frankly be shocked if we didn't see 60s Mon-Wed of next week. 850mb anomalies are well AN and our averages are about to go up. 

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Morning thoughts...

There is strong model consensus that the weekend storm will develop rapidly intensify too far from the region to have an impact on the New York City-Newark area. Little or now snow remains the most likely outcome.

A growing number of variables are suggesting that February will wind up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. It will be interesting to see if these developments are reflected on the EPS weeklies when they become available this afternoon.

Historic data for years with warmth similar to what is expected during the February 1-7 period have overwhelmingly seen warmer than normal monthly temperatures for February.

Monthly snowfall was typically below normal. The only cases with near normal or greater snowfall were 1991, 2006, and 2008. In the former two cases, the month's largest snowfall coincided with PNA values above +1.250. In the latter case, the PNA was above +0.500.

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