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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We have just under 4 prime winter weeks left for the immediate metro-area. Let that sink in. Yes we can get snow, but the lack of 'winter' feel around here has been painful, right up there with 2011-2012.

We are now in what is historically the best period in NYC for 6 plus inch snowfalls. There have been 193 six plus inch storms since 1870 occurring in the 5 month period between November 15th to April 13th. Seventy of them have occurred in the 30 day period between January 20th to February 18th.

NYC 6+ inch Snows - 10 day periods
1..... Nov-11-Nov-20
4..... Nov-21-Nov-30
6..... Dec-01-Dec-10
13.... Dec-11-Dec-20
18.... Dec-21-Dec-30
12.... Dec-31-Jan-09
15.... Jan-10-Jan-19
20.... Jan-20-Jan-29
25.... Jan-30-Feb-08
25.... Feb-09-Feb-18

16.... Feb-19-Feb-28
18.... Feb-29-Mar-10
11.... Mar-11-Mar-20
2..... Mar-21-Mar-30
6..... Mar-31-Apr-09
1..... Apr-10-Apr-19

193.. Nov-15-Apr-13

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The January highs and lows were nearly identical to Atlanta so far.

Atlanta.....72....23
NYC..........69....20.......EWR.....70....20

 

Forky nailed it months ago... we're Atlanta with snow.

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Slightly cooler air is moving into the region. Nevertheless, temperatures will generally run somewhat above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC through the rest of January.

Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely. Moreover, the cold could be transient.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was -0.56 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.700.

Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 4. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February. This activity will produce warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the first days of February, but the strong Wave 2 activity has increased the risk of warming that could propagate downward. 

On January 26, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.448 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.724.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record.

The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

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The last 4 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3 degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.2[39.5].        January should end near  +6.5[38.9].

The first 12 days of Feb. are averaging   (0Z, GFS)34degs., or about 1deg. AN.      6" of Snow near the 2nd., and 2" near the 10th.       The other two models are snowless the next 10 days.

FLASH:   The unreliable 06Z GFS has an average T of 32degs., or 1deg. BN for the first 13 days of February and turns all liquid into Snow, for a total of 22".    

DOUBLE FLASH:     Cancel the previous Flash.       12Z GFS  Average T is back up to 40degs., or 7degs. AN for the first 13 days of Feb. and Snow less.      The models should take the Fifth Amendment  and disappear into the Government's Model Protection Program before the Meteorological Society puts a HIT out on them!!!!!!     For completeness I present the 18Z GFS:   Average T is 37degs. for the first 13 days of Feb., with some snow at the end of the period---that means UCWYAWI.

38* here at 6am.         43* by 1pm.         40* by 8pm.

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A top 10 warmest January for many. The winter temperature departures since December 1st are +3 to +8 across the East. Big reduction in home heating costs for a large amount of customers.

 

27E92682-D5D7-484E-8B11-283D46C4E634.thumb.jpeg.e560eeeade79f13d1befc996012f9f83.jpeg

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A top 10 warmest January for many. The winter temperature departures since December 1st are +3 to +8 across the East. Big reduction in home heating costs for a large amount of customers.

 

27E92682-D5D7-484E-8B11-283D46C4E634.thumb.jpeg.e560eeeade79f13d1befc996012f9f83.jpeg

 

At least we had a pretty normal Dec temp and snowfall wise, for many of us. Some stations had record precip. totals....This month though, forget it...on all fronts.

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55 minutes ago, doncat said:

At least we had a pretty normal Dec temp and snowfall wise, for many of us. Some stations had record precip. totals....This month though, forget it...on all fronts.

Yeah, the flip around the solstice was very dramatic. We were -2 to -3 before then. But quickly reversed to the 5th warmest on record since December 22nd.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Jan 27
Missing Count
1 1932-01-27 42.7 0
2 1950-01-27 41.9 0
- 1933-01-27 41.9 0
3 1937-01-27 40.8 0
4 2006-01-27 40.5 0
5 2020-01-27 40.4 0
6 2007-01-27 40.1 0
7 1913-01-27 39.9 0
8 2017-01-27 39.3 0
- 1995-01-27 39.3 0
9 1998-01-27 39.1 0
10 2016-01-27 38.8 0

 

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Quick morning thoughts...

1. New York City remains solidly on course for January 2020 to become the 9th warmest January on record with a monthly mean temperature near 39.0°.

2. A weekend storm will likely bring little or no snow to the immediate New York City Metro Area. Eastern New England has the greatest chance of seeing a light or perhaps moderate snowfall as the storm rapidly deepens over the New England waters.

3. Since 1981, there have been 11 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to New York City in the February 1-15 timeframe. None had 250 mb winds over the Pacific Northwest rivaling those forecast by the latest guidance.

GEFS012820200z.jpg

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

A top 10 warmest January for many. The winter temperature departures since December 1st are +3 to +8 across the East. Big reduction in home heating costs for a large amount of customers.

 

27E92682-D5D7-484E-8B11-283D46C4E634.thumb.jpeg.e560eeeade79f13d1befc996012f9f83.jpeg

 

At this point I just want full-on spring weather. I'm over this pathetic winter but do appreciate the lack of arctic cold.

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16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Quick morning thoughts...

1. New York City remains solidly on course for January 2020 to become the 9th warmest January on record with a monthly mean temperature near 39.0°.

2. A weekend storm will likely bring little or no snow to the immediate New York City Metro Area. Eastern New England has the greatest chance of seeing a light or perhaps moderate snowfall as the storm rapidly deepens over the New England waters.

3. Since 1981, there have been 11 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to New York City in the February 1-15 timeframe. None had 250 mb winds over the Pacific Northwest rivaling those forecast by the latest guidance.

GEFS012820200z.jpg

It's really fascinating how every pattern we have seen have been non conducive for snowfall in our region. We cannot catch a break. 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

It's really fascinating how every pattern we have seen have been non conducive for snowfall in our region. We cannot catch a break. 

It's disappointing. Hopefully, things will change, sooner rather than later.

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Not sure if we have a weak trough moving through, but we have had extremely light snow grains and flurries for the last 2 hours. The important word being extremely, with a temp of 35. I'm about 5 miles west of Allentown, Pa. Hope this is the right Obs section to post in.  Maybe we luck out this weekend. We'll see!

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

we lucked out a lot the past 2 decades....maybe we are falling back into the 80s type pattern......but who really knows

Except the 80s were cold & dry. 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warmth in Europe has been even more impressive than here.

 

6905A2AD-DF72-4DA8-B0BC-153A0B0AC984.thumb.png.0b0d127900def3f0822883e2dfdd1a7c.png

 

 

 

Thank you for the sobering update. A portion of my ancestral Sicily was below normal for the period. I wonder if the mountains experienced snow during that time frame. As always ...

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2 hours ago, rclab said:

Thank you for the sobering update. A portion of my ancestral Sicily was below normal for the period. I wonder if the mountains experienced snow during that time frame. As always ...

Record storms around the Mediterranean. 

https://www.surfertoday.com/environment/storm-gloria-generates-the-biggest-wave-ever-recorded-in-the-mediterranean

https://www.timesofisrael.com/torrential-rains-in-northern-israel-break-51-year-record/

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34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No winter anywhere this year-even parts of Russia have been warm

Alaska...Fairbanks.   -13° temp departure this month...  -21.2 mean temp.

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10 minutes ago, doncat said:

Alaska...Fairbanks.   -13° temp departure this month...  -21.2 mean temp.

The kiss of death for winter elsewhere in North America-Alaskan Cold.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

No winter anywhere this year-even parts of Russia have been warm

I wouldnt say no winter lol, its just been mild after a cold November. We are actually around avg snowfall to date in Detroit (21.9" so far), just cant sustain the snowpack. These mild winters are a boon for the Lake superior snowbelts of the UP, absolute mountains of snow. I would suggest a trip if you can, you will definitely get a fix.

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6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's really fascinating how every pattern we have seen have been non conducive for snowfall in our region. We cannot catch a break. 

Also really fascinating how the Pacific Jet has essentially raged like an insane wind tunnel constantly which helps destroy any chances we have due to warm air, progressive patterns, no blocking and horrible storm tracks through the Midwest. 

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40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The kiss of death for winter elsewhere in North America-Alaskan Cold.

Yup, essentially when Alaska is an icebox in the winter (more so than usual) it’s typically mild and boring here. We want the opposite. 

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Alaska...Fairbanks.   -13° temp departure this month...  -21.2 mean temp.

One of the strongest January +EPO patterns on record will do it for them. Like a La Niña without actually having one. 
 

647A8FC7-685E-49F1-A272-34FC017551F4.gif.2fd2ccebff3f978ea9fc928637e781c4.gif


 

 


 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the strongest January +EPO patterns on record will do it for them. Like a La Niña without actually having one. 
 

647A8FC7-685E-49F1-A272-34FC017551F4.gif.2fd2ccebff3f978ea9fc928637e781c4.gif


 

 


 

 

 

that is the literal inverse of what we need for a good winter month

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Bet it will be tough to change this pattern as well....if so, expect a blowtorch in Feb just like Jan

I wonder if it will just continue with the chilly dull blah punctuated by drenching rain. At this point a torch would be a change of pace. 

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that is the literal inverse of what we need for a good winter month

Very big surprise for the Alaskan forecasters to get such a strong Niña-like pattern without actually having one. Must be the combination of the record MJO, record WPAC warm pool, and PV alignment. 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com

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